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Kevin L. Kliesen

Business Economist and Research Officer

Education

M.A. Economics
Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado
1989

B.S. Agricultural Business
Colorado State University
1985

Contact Info

Phone: (314) 444-8583
Fax: (314) 444-8731

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442



Review Articles

"Living Standards in St. Louis and the Eighth Federal Reserve District: Let’s Get Real"
with Cletus C. Coughlin and Charles S. Gascon
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2017
10.20955/r.2017.377-394

"A Macroeconomic News Index for Constructing Nowcasts of U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth"
with Sean P. Grover and Michael W. McCracken
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2016
10.20955/r.2016.277-296

"Three Challenges to Central Bank Orthodoxy"
with James Bullard
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2016
10.20955/r.2016.1-16

"A Measure of Price Pressures"
with Laura E. Jackson and Michael T. Owyang
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2015
10.20955/r.97.25-52

"A Guide to Tracking the U.S. Economy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2014
10.20955/r.96.35-54

"U.S. Manufacturing and the Importance of International Trade: It’s Not What You Think"
with John A. Tatom
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2013
10.20955/r.95.27-50

"Disentangling Diverse Measures: A Survey of Financial Stress Indexes"
with Michael T. Owyang and E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012
10.20955/r.94.369-398

"Federal Reserve Lending to Troubled Banks During the Financial Crisis, 2007-2010"
with R. Alton Gilbert, Andrew P. Meyer, and David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2012
10.20955/r.94.221-242

"How Good Are the Government’s Deficit and Debt Projections and Should We Care?"
with Daniel L. Thornton
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012
10.20955/r.94.21-39

"FOMC Learning and Productivity Growth (1985-2003): A Reading of the Record"
with Richard G. Anderson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2010
10.20955/r.92.129-154

"Oil and the U.S. Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2008
10.20955/r.90.505-516

"Forecasting Inflation and Output: Comparing Data-Rich Models with Simple Rules"
with William T. Gavin
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2008
10.20955/r.90.175-192

"How Well Does Employment Predict Output?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2007
10.20955/r.89.433-446

"Rising Natural Gas Prices and Real Economic Activity"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2006
10.20955/r.88.511-526

"The 1990s Acceleration in Labor Productivity: Causes and Measurement"
with Richard G. Anderson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2006
10.20955/r.88.181-202

"Macroeconomic News and Real Interest Rates"
with Frank A. Schmid
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2006
10.20955/r.88.133-144

"Oil Price Volatility and U.S. Macroeconomic Activity"
with Hui Guo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2005
10.20955/r.87.669-84

"Monetary Policy Actions, Macroeconomic Data Releases, and Inflation Expectations"
with Frank A. Schmid
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2004
10.20955/r.86.9-22

"The 2001 Recession: How Was It Different and What Developments May Have Caused It?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2003
10.20955/r.85.23-38

"Was Y2K Behind the Business Investment Boom and Bust?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2003
10.20955/r.85.31-42

"Unemployment Insurance Claims and Economic Activity"
with William T. Gavin
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2002
10.20955/r.84.15-28

"The Expected Federal Budget Surplus: How Much Confidence Should the Public and Policymakers Place in the Projections"
with Daniel L. Thornton
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2001
10.20955/r.83.11-24

"Agriculture Outcomes and Monetary Policy Actions: Kissin' Cousins?"
with William Poole
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2000
10.20955/r.82.1-12

"Are Some Banks Too Agricultural?"
with R. Alton Gilbert
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 1996
10.20955/r.78.23-36

"The Recent Credit Crunch: The Neglected Dimensions"
with John A. Tatom
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1992
10.20955/r.74.18-36


Economic Synopses Articles

"Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2018, No. 16
10.20955/es.2018.16

"Here’s Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Fundamentally Strong"
with John A. Tatom
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2018, No. 4
10.20955/es.2018.4

"Remembering Allan H. Meltzer"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2017, No. 7
10.20955/es.2017.7

"Does Data Confusion Equal Forecast Confusion?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2017, No. 5
10.20955/es.2017.5

"Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure"
with Laura E. Jackson and Michael T. Owyang
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2015, No. 25
10.20955/es.2015.25

"How Accurate Are Measures of Long-Term Inflation Expectations?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2015, No. 9
10.20955/es.2015.9

"Are Oil Price Declines Good for the Economy?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2015, No. 3
10.20955/es.2015.3

"How Negative Is Negative Real GDP Growth?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 17
10.20955/es.2014.17

"Signs of Improving Labor Market Conditions"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 10
10.20955/es.2014.10

"How Well Do Initial Claims Forecast Employment Growth Over the Business Cycle and Over Time?"
with David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 7
10.20955/es.2012.7

"Initial Claims and Employment Growth: Are We at the Threshold?"
with Michael W. McCracken and Linpeng Zheng
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 41
10.20955/es.2011.41

"Using Brent and WTI Oil Prices to Predict Gasoline Prices"
with Michael T. Owyang
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 36
10.20955/es.2011.36

"Tax Rates and Revenue Since the 1970s"
with Daniel L. Thornton
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 24
10.20955/es.2011.24

"The Federal Debt: What’s the Source of the Increase in Spending?"
with Daniel L. Thornton
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 21
10.20955/es.2011.21

"The Federal Debt: Too Little Revenue or Too Much Spending"
with Daniel L. Thornton
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 20
10.20955/es.2011.20

"Is the Fed’s Definition of Price Stability Evolving?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 33
10.20955/es.2010.33

"Measuring Financial Market Stress"
with Douglas C. Smith
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 2
10.20955/es.2010.2

"Dating the End of the Recession: Evaluating the Economic Indicators"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 28
10.20955/es.2009.28

"Recession or Depression? Part II"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 19
10.20955/es.2009.19

"Recession or Depression?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 15
10.20955/es.2009.15

"Putting the Financial Crisis and Lending Activity in a Broader Context"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 11
10.20955/es.2009.11

"Another Conundrum?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 23
10.20955/es.2008.23

"An Expanded Look at Employment"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 7
10.20955/es.2008.7

"Can You Hear Me Now?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 1
10.20955/es.2008.1

"Recession Rumblings"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 12
10.20955/es.2007.12

"Are Two Employment Surveys Better than One?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 27
10.20955/es.2006.27

"Gauging the Size of Today’s Price Shocks"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 2
10.20955/es.2006.2

"Has Monetary Policy Been More Accomodative Than Previously Believed?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 23
10.20955/es.2005.23

"Battle at Bond Bluff: Forecasters vs. Financial Markets"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 14
10.20955/es.2005.14

"Reading Inflation Expectations from CPI Futures"
with Hui Guo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 5
10.20955/es.2005.5

"Ringing in the New Year with an Investment Bust?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 29
10.20955/es.2004.29

"Mind the Gap: Measuring Actual vs. Potential Output"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 2
10.20955/es.2004.2

"Waiting for the Investment Boom? It Might Be a While"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 12
10.20955/es.2003.12

"Does a Mild Recession Imply a Weak Recovery?"
with Daniel L. Thornton
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2002, No. 9
10.20955/es.2002.9


Regional Economist Articles

"U.S. Economic Growth Appears Solid This Year"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2018, Vol. 26, No. 2

"U.S. Economy Continues to Strengthen"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2018, Vol. 26, No. 1

"Economy Bounces Back from Hurricanes"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2017, Vol. 25, No. 4

"Momentum Appears to Have Swung Upward for Economy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2017, Vol. 25, No. 3

"Handle with Care: Report on GDP for First Quarter"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2017, Vol. 25, No. 2

"Signals Are Mixed, but Optimism Is on the Rise"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2017, Vol. 25, No. 1

"After a Start That Was Lackluster, the Economy Improves"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2016, Vol. 24, No. 4

"Despite Weakness, Economic Expansion Marks Seven Years"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2016, Vol. 24, No. 3

"Modest Improvement in Economy Expected over Rest of the Year"
with Usa Kerdnunvong
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2016, Vol. 24, No. 2

"Tracking the U.S. Economy with Nowcasts"
with Michael W. McCracken
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2016, Vol. 24, No. 2

"Focus on Low Real Interest Rate Might Be Misplaced"
with Jonas Crews and Christopher J. Waller
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2016, Vol. 24, No. 1

"Despite Crosscurrents, Economy Is Showing Signs of Strength"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2016, Vol. 24, No. 1

"National Overview: Growth Is Resilient in the Midst of Uncertainty"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2015, Vol. 23, No. 4

"National Overview: The U.S. Economy Stumbles Out of the Gate—Again"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2015, Vol. 23, No. 3

"National Overview: Growth Is Modest in GDP but Strong in Labor Markets"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2015, Vol. 23, No. 2

"National Overview: Pace of Growth Is Expected To Quicken"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2015, Vol. 23, No. 1

"Faster Real GDP Growth during Recoveries Tends To Be Associated with Growth of Jobs in "Low-Paying" Industries"
with Lowell R. Ricketts
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2015, Vol. 23, No. 1

"The Fed's Strategy for Exiting from Unconventional Policy: Key Principles, Potential Challenges"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2013, Vol. 21, No. 4

"Uncertainty and the Economy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2013, Vol. 21, No. 2

"Accounting for U.S. Growth: Is There a New Normal?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2012, Vol. 20, No. 4

"Are Small Businesses the Biggest Producers of Jobs?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2011, Vol. 19, No. 2

"Low Interest Rates Have Benefits ... and Costs"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2010, Vol. 18, No. 4

"Commercial Real Estate: A Drag for Some Banks but Maybe Not for U.S. Economy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2010, Vol. 18, No. 1

"Inflation May Be the Next Dragon To Slay"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2010, Vol. 18, No. 1

"Digging Into the Infrastructure Debate"
with Douglas C. Smith
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2009, Vol. 17, No. 3

"Ethanol: Economic Gain or Drain?"
with Joshua A. Byrge
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2008, Vol. 16, No. 3

"Trading Barbs: A Primer on the Globalization Debate"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2007, Vol. 15, No. 4

"As Boomers Slow Down, So Might the Economy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2007, Vol. 15, No. 3

"National Overview: Below-Trend Growth Is Predicted for Most of 2007"
with Joshua A. Byrge
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2007, Vol. 15, No. 1

"Electricity: The Next Energy Jolt?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2006, Vol. 14, No. 4

"Survey Says Families Are Digging Deeper into Debt"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2006, Vol. 14, No. 3

"Do We Have a Saving Crisis?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2005, Vol. 13, No. 3

"Fear of Hell Might Fire Up the Economy"
with Frank A. Schmid
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2004, Vol. 12, No. 3

"A Jobless Recovery with More People Working?"
with Howard J. Wall
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2004, Vol. 12, No. 2

"The Economy Gets Back on Track: but Once Again Leaves Many Workers Behind"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2004, Vol. 12, No. 1

"Big Government: The Comeback Kid?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2003, Vol. 11, No. 1

"Government Budget Surpluses Head South: Will They Come Back?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2002, Vol. 10, No. 2

"The Microchip Flexes Its Muscle: Can It Compete with History's Best?"
with David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2001, Vol. 9, No. 3

"Rising Oil Prices and Economic Turmoil: Must They Always Go Hand in Hand?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2001, Vol. 9, No. 1

"The NAIRU: Tailor-Made for the Fed?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 1999, Vol. 7, No. 4

"An Oasis of Prosperity: Solely An American Phenomenon?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 1999, Vol. 7, No. 3

"Is the Bloom off the Rose for Eighth District Farmers?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 1999, Vol. 7, No. 2

"Models and Monetary Policy: More Science Than Art?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 1999, Vol. 7, No. 1

"Enhancing Future Retirement Income through 401(k)s"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 1998, Vol. 6, No. 4

"How Susceptible is the United States to the Asian Flu?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 1998, Vol. 6, No. 2

"A Brave New Economic World? The Productivity Puzzle"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 1998, Vol. 6, No. 1

"Critiquing the Consumer Price Index"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 1997, Vol. 5, No. 3

"Assessing the Generational Gap in Future Living Standards through Generational Accounting"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 1997, Vol. 5, No. 2

"What's Up Down on the Farm?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 1997, Vol. 5, No. 1

"A Recipe for Monetary Policy Credibility"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 1996, Vol. 4, No. 4

"Tax Man Heal Thyself"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 1996, Vol. 4, No. 3

"District Automotive Sector Flourishing"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 1996, Vol. 4, No. 2

"Chained, Rested and Ready: The New and Improved GDP"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 1996, Vol. 4, No. 1

"A Fiscal Devolution: Can State and Local Governments Measure Up?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 1995, Vol. 3, No. 4

"District Economy Takes Off in '94"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 1995, Vol. 3, No. 3

"A Fed Focused on Price Stability: The Benefits of a Single Target"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 1995, Vol. 3, No. 2

"The Fixation on International Competitiveness"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 1995, Vol. 3, No. 1

"District Economic Update: Will the Sailing Remain Smooth?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 1994, Vol. 2, No. 4

"Commodity Price Indexes: Can They Predict Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 1994, Vol. 2, No. 3

"The Economics of Natural Disasters"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 1994, Vol. 2, No. 2

"Can Agriculture Rebound This Year?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 1994, Vol. 2, No. 1

"IOUs from the Edge: Should We Worry about the Budget Deficit?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 1993, Vol. 1, No. 4

"Restructuring And Economic Growth: Taking The Long-Term View"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 1993, Vol. 1, No. 3

"Some Upbeat Trends in District Employment"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 1993, Vol. 1, No. 2

"Leaning Against the Wind: Does the Fed Engage in Countercyclical Monetary Policy?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 1993, Vol. 1, No. 1





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