COVID-19 Research Resources
The most-current resources related to the COVID-19 pandemic from the economists and staff of the Research Division: preliminary and published analyses, daily data updates and projections, data tools, and a timeline of related events and policy responses. For more related analysis and resources from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, see the Bank's official COVID-19 page.
Data and Additional Research Resources
Data Updates
UPDATED: Data on COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Categorized by Financial Distress by Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
last updated January 14, 2021
first posted online March 27, 2020
related publication: On the Economy blog, April 2, 2020
UPDATED: Daily Data and Projections on COVID-19 Death Rates by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
last updated June 29, 2020
first posted online March 30, 2020
related publication: On the Economy blog, April 13, 2020
UPDATED: Weekly Data on Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
last updated July 20, 2020
first posted online April 13, 2020
related publications: On the Economy blog, Part 1, April 9, 2020, Part 2, April 14, 2020, Part 3, May 11, 2020
UPDATED: SPECIAL SURVEYS: The Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses in the Eighth Federal Reserve District by Kathryn Bokun, Charles Gascon, Nathan Jefferson, and Devin Werner
last updated November 8, 2021
first posted online May 1, 2020
Are We Really in This Together? The Divided Nature of the COVID-19 Crisis by Alexander Monge-Naranjo.
On the Economy blog, April 6, 2021
Is Inflation Making a Comeback? by Fernando Martin.
On the Economy blog, April 5, 2021
How COVID-19 Has Impacted Stock Performance by Industry by Yi Wen and Iris Arbogast.
On the Economy blog, March 22, 2021
The Pandemic Dents College Attendance by Oksana Leukhina and Devin Werner
On the Economy blog, February 22, 2021
COVID-19 across Counties with Different Pre-Pandemic Financial Distress by Juan M. Sánchez, Kartik Athreya, Jose Mustre-del-Río and Olivia Wilkinson
On the Economy blog, February 15, 2021
Personal Saving During the COVID-19 Recession by Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Economic Synopses, February 12, 2021
Credit Spreads during the Financial Crisis and COVID-19 by Julian Kozlowski, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Mahdi Ebsim
On the Economy blog, February 8, 2021
How COVID-19 May Be Affecting Inflation by Michael McCracken and Aaron Amburgey
On the Economy blog, February 2, 2021
COVID-19 and Unauthorized Immigration at the Southwest Border by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay and Praew Grittayaphong
On the Economy blog, January 14, 2021
Updated September-December, 2020
Should Social Distancing Be Mandatory during a Pandemic? by Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Regional Economist, December 30, 2020
COVID-19: Scarring Body and Mind by Julian Kozlowski
Economic Synopses, December 22, 2020
A Look at the Fed’s Emergency Lending Programs by Christopher J. Neely
On the Economy blog, December 22, 2020
A Tale of Two Business Cycles during the Pandemic by Bill Dupor
On the Economy blog, December 21, 2020
Financing the U.S. Response to COVID-19 by Fernando M. Martin
On the Economy blog, December. 1, 2020
Did the Fed’s Dollar Swap Lines Work? by Sungki Hong and Devin Werner
On the Economy blog, November 24, 2020
Anecdotal Evidence Suggests State Capacity Unrelated to COVID-19 Spread by Yi Wen, Iris Arbogast, and Brian Reinbold
Regional Economist, November 23, 2020
V-Shaped Recovery Eludes G-7 Countries by Yi Wen and Iris Arbogast
On the Economy blog, November 16, 2020
The COVID-19 Recession in Historical Perspective by Pablo Andrés Neumeyer, Paulina Restrepo-Echavarría, and Lucas Belmudes
On the Economy blog, November 12, 2020
Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis by James Bullard
Regional Economist, November 10, 2020
How Has the COVID-19 Recession Affected U.S. Labor across Occupations and Industries? by Serdar Birinci and Aaron Amburgey
On the Economy blog, November 9, 2020
Learning from Experience: Why Nations May Have Responded Differently to COVID-19 by Alexander Monge-Naranjo and Qiuhan Sun
On the Economy blog, November 5, 2020
Optimal Management of an Epidemic: Lockdown, Vaccine and Value of Life by Carlos Garriga, Rodolfo E. Manuelli, and Sanghi Siddhartha
Working paper 2020-46A, updated November 2020
Responses of International Central Banks to the COVID-19 Crisis by Jacob Haas, Christopher J. Neely, and William R. Emmons
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2020, Vol. 102, No. 4
How COVID-19 Has Affected the Municipal Bond Market by Juan M. Sánchez and Olivia Wilkinson
Regional Economist, October 22, 2020
Anatomy of Corporate Credit Spreads: The Great Recession vs. COVID-19 by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria e Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
Working paper 2020-35A, October 9, 2020
What Are the Fed’s Dollar Swap Lines and FIMA Repos, and Why Do They Matter? by Sungki Hong and Devin Werner
On the Economy blog, October 8, 2020
The Impact of COVID-19 on the Residential Real Estate Market by Charles S. Gascon and Jacob Haas
Regional Economist, October 6, 2020
Home Production Activity during the COVID-19 Shutdown by Oksana Leukhina and Zhixiu Yu
Regional Economist, September 30, 2020
The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Deficit During COVID-19: The Role of Essential Medical Goods by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu
Economic Synopses, September 16, 2020
The Decline of Employment During COVID-19: The Role of Contact-Intensive Industries by Matthew Famiglietti, Fernando Leibovici, and Ana Maria Santacreu
Economic Synopses, September 9, 2020
How Should the Government Spend the Fiscal Budget during the COVID-19 Pandemic? by Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See
On the Economy blog, August 20, 2020
The Effects of Extra Unemployment Benefits on Household Delinquencies by Asha Bharadwaj and Miguel Faria-e-Castro
On the Economy blog, August 18, 2020
first posted online August 13, 2020
Comparing the COVID-19 Recession with the Great Depression by David C. Wheelock
Economic Synopses, August 12, 2020
Home Production and Leisure During the COVID-19 Recession by Oksana Leukhina and Zhixiu Yu
Working paper 2020-25, August 10, 2020
COVID-19's Effects on the Economy and the Fed's Response by Jane Ihrig, Gretchen C. Weinbach, and Scott A. Wolla
Page One Economics, August 10, 2020
The Recent COVID-19 Spike and the U.S. Employment Slowdown by Maximiliano Dvorkin
Regional Economist, August 17, 2020
Which Jobs Have Been Hit Hardest by COVID-19? by Asha Bharadwaj and Maximiliano Dvorkin
On the Economy blog, August 18, 2020
Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic by Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See
Working paper 2020-24, August 2020
Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19 by Emilio Espino, Julian Kozlowski, Fernando M. Martin, and Juan M. Sánchez
Working paper 2020-24, August 2020
The State of the COVID-19 Crisis in the U.S. by James Bullard
Regional Economist, July 17, 2020
Which Earnings Groups Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Crisis? by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci
Economic Synopses, July 14, 2020
COVID-19 and the Great Recession: Market Hours and Home Production across American Households by Oksana Leukhina, Devin Werner, and Zhixiu Yu
On the Economy blog, July 14, 2020
Hospital Capacity amid the COVID-19 Pandemic by Asha Bharadwaj, Kathryn Bokun, and Charles Gascon
Regional Economist, July 9, 2020
Financial Distress and the Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections by Kartik Athreya, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, July 6, 2020
first posted online July 2, 2020
Economic Uncertainty Means Approaching GDP Forecasts with Caution by Kevin Kliesen
Regional Economist, July 1, 2020
The Impact of the Fed's Response So Far by Fernando M. Martin
On the Economy blog, June 16, 2020
first posted online May 1, 2020
International Trade Policy During COVID-19 by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu
Economic Synopses, June 12, 2020
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic IV: Liquidity Buffers by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
On the Economy blog, June 12, 2020
first posted online June 5, 2020
Checking the Temperature of the Labor Market in Real Time by Maximiliano Dvorkin and Asha Bharadwaj
On the Economy blog, June 9, 2020
first posted online June 8, 2020
Endogenous Social Distancing in an Epidemic by Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Working paper 2020-013A, June 2020
Assessing Second-Quarter Unemployment amid the Pandemic by James Bullard
Regional Economist, May 28, 2020
Unemployment Insurance and Vulnerable Households During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Serdar Birinci
Economic Synopses, May 27, 2020
Bad Medicine? Federal Debt and Deficits after COVID-19 by Kevin L. Kliesen
Economic Synopses, May 26, 2020
PRELIMINARY: Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock? by Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, and Miguel Faria-e-Castro
posted online May 19, 2020
What Can We Learn from the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-19 for COVID-19? by David C. Wheelock
Economic Synopses, May 18, 2020
Measuring Sectoral Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19 by Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, and Miguel Faria e Castro
Working paper 2020-011, May 2020
Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga
On the Economy blog, May 13, 2020
first posted online May 11, 2020
PRELIMINARY: The Social Value of a Vaccine for the COVID-19 Epidemic by Carlos Garriga, Rody Manuelli, and Sid Sanghi
posted online May 13, 2020
PRELIMINARY: Optimal Management of the COVID-19 Epidemic: When and How To Reopen the Economy? by Carlos Garriga, Rody Manuelli, and Sid Sanghi
posted online May 13, 2020
Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti
On the Economy blog, May 12, 2020
Federal Reserve System International Facilities by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, May 8, 2020
COVID-19 Cases and Deaths: Comparing the Eighth Federal Reserve District and the U.S. by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Economic Synopses, May 7, 2020
International Trade of Essential Goods During a Pandemic by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu
Working paper 2020-010B, May 2020
first posted online May 5, 2020
PRELIMINARY: The GDP Impact of Economic Shutdowns by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett
posted online May 5, 2020
How Will COVID-19 Affect Financial Assets, Delinquency and Bankruptcy? by Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, May 4, 2020
first posted online April 17, 2020
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic III: Variance Across Sectors and Firms by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
On the Economy blog, May 11, 2020
first posted online May 4, 2020
Updated April 18-April 30, 2020
COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts by Charles Gascon and Aaron Amburgey
On the Economy blog, April 30, 2020
Reopening the U.S.: Gauging the Trend of COVID-19 Transmissions by B. Ravikumar, Guillaume Vandenbroucke, and Ryan Mather
On the Economy blog, April 28, 2020
The Value of $600 Across States Hit Hardest by COVID-19 by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett
Economic Synopses, April 28, 2020
first posted online April 24, 2020
How Will COVID-19 Affect the Spending of Financially Distressed Households? by Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, April 23, 2020
first posted online April 10, 2020
The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part II by Makenzie Peake, B. Ravikumar, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Economic Synopses, April 23, 2020
The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part I by Makenzie Peake, B. Ravikumar, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Economic Synopses, April 22, 2020
Central Bank Responses to COVID-19 by Jacob Haas and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 21, 2020
first posted online April 20, 2020
Will Workers Want To Be Laid Off? by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett
Economic Synopses, April 18, 2020
first posted online April 15, 2020
Updated April 11-April 17, 2020
Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci
Economic Synopses, April 17, 2020
first posted online April 15, 2020
Supporting Small Borrowers: ABS Markets and the TALF by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 16, 2020
first posted online April 13, 2020
Fed Intervention in the To-Be-Announced Market for Mortgage-Backed Securities by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 15, 2020
first posted online April 10, 2020
Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19 by Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp, and Venky Venkateswaran
Working paper 2020-009A, April 2020
first posted online April 15, 2020
Is the U.S. Looking Like Italy? Projections on COVID-19 Death Rates by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
On the Economy blog, April 14, 2020
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic II: Heterogeneity across Sectors by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
On the Economy blog, April 14, 2020
first posted online April 10, 2020
The Wage Bills of COVID-19 by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett
Economic Synopses, April 14, 2020
first posted online April 9, 2020
The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets across the U.S. by Maximiliano Dvorkin
On the Economy blog, April 13, 2020
first posted online April 3, 2020
The Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Supports Main Street by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 13, 2020
first posted online April 8, 2020
How Bad Can It Be? The Relationship between GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate by YiLi Chien
Economic Synopses, April 11, 2020
first posted online April 1, 2020
Updated April 4-April 10, 2020
Protectionism and Import Dependence on Essential Medical Equipment by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Makenzie Peake
On the Economy blog, April 10, 2020
first posted online April 8, 2020
The Stock Market's Wild Ride by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 10, 2020
first posted online April 7, 2020
The Year of Living Dangerously: The COVID-19 Shock and the Probability of Deflation by Kevin Kliesen
Economic Synopses, April 9, 2020
Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic by Mahdi Ebsim, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
On the Economy blog, April 9,2020
first posted online April 6, 2020
How Much Does the U.S. Rely on Other Countries for Essential Medical Equipment? by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Makenzie Peake
On the Economy blog, April 8, 2020
first posted online April 3, 2020
How the Impact of Social Distancing Ripples through the Economy by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti
On the Economy blog, April 7, 2020
first posted online April 2, 2020
How Long Will the Relief Check Last? by YiLi Chien
Economic Synopses, April 6, 2020
first posted online April 2, 2020
COVID-19's Economic Effects on Poor and Emerging Markets by Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria
On the Economy blog, April 6, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020
Updated March 28-April 3, 2020
COVID-19 and Unemployment Risk: State and MSA Differences by Charles Gascon and Devin Werner
On the Economy blog, April 3, 2020
U.S. States Hit the Hardest by COVID-19 Have Lower Unemployment Risks by Sungki Hong and Devin Werner
Economic Synopses, April 3, 2020
COVID-19: Forecasting with Slow and Fast Data by Michael McCracken
On the Economy blog, April 3, 2020
first posted online April 1, 2020
How Closing Restaurants and Hotels Spills Over to Total Employment by Carlos Garriga, Ryan Mather, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, April 2, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020
COVID-19: Projected Deaths in the U.S. by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
On the Economy blog, April 1, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020
House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga
On the Economy blog, April 1, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020
Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic Part I: Financial Markets and Monetary Policy by Fernando M. Martin
Economic Synopses, March 30, 2020
Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part II: The Economy and Fiscal Policy by Fernando M. Martin
Economic Synopses, March 30, 2020
COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth? by Michael T. Owyang, Hannah G. Shell, and Julie K. Bennett
On the Economy blog, March 30, 2020
Updated March 21-March 27, 2020
COVID-19 and the Importance of Testing by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
On the Economy blog, March 27, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020
How Fast Has COVID-19 Been Spreading? by Guillaume Vandenbroucke
On the Economy blog, March 27, 2020
first posted online as The Speed of COVID-19, March 27, 2020
The Effects of COVID-19 on Unemployment Insurance Claims by Serdar Birinci and Aaron Amburgey
Economic Synopses, March 27, 2020
Fiscal Policy and COVID-19: Insights from a Quantitative Model by Miguel Faria e Castro
Economic Synopses, March 27, 2020
COVID-19 and Financial Distress: Employment Vulnerability by Kartik Athreya, Ryan Mather, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, March 26, 2020
The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0 by Kevin Kliesen and Michael McCracken
On the Economy blog, March 26, 2020
The Efficacy of Enhanced Unemployment Benefits during a Pandemic by Bill Dupor
Regional Economist, March 24, 2020
Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate by Miguel Faria e Castro
On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020
Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti
On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020
COVID-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk? by Charles S. Gascon
On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020
Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period by James Bullard
On the Economy blog, March 23, 2020
Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic by Miguel Faria e Castro
Working Paper 2020-006, March 23, 2020
How Many Employees Are Prepared to Work from Home? by Charles S. Gascon and Mahdi Ebsim
On the Economy blog, March 23, 2020
COVID-19’s Shock on Firms’ Liquidity and Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Great Recession by Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici
Economic Synopses, March 20, 2020
How Quickly Does Fiscal Policy Get Implemented? by Bill Dupor
On the Economy blog, March 18, 2020
Possible Fiscal Policies for Rare, Unanticipated and Severe Viral Outbreaks by Bill Dupor
Economic Synopses, March 17, 2020
On the Economy blog, March 17, 2020
Data and Additional Research Resources
COVID-19
COVID-19 Economic Data tracking dashboard on FRED
COVID-19 Financial Data tracking dashboard on FRED
Timeline of Events Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic on FRASER, the digital library of economic history
Tracking the U.S. economy and financial markets during the COVID-19 outbreak on FREDBlog
U.S. Department of Labor's Weekly Report on Pandemic Claims on FRED
World Pandemic Uncertainty Index on FRED
Social distancing and employment loss in leisure and hospitality on FREDBlog
Latest RePEc papers on COVID-19. RePEc IDEAS is a bibliographic database of economic research indexing more than one million academic articles and papers.
COVID-19 Information from across the Federal Reserve System
Other Research Division Resources on Pandemics, Recessions, and Crises
Epidemics, Pandemics and the Economy, a FRASER blog post on historical resources related to historical epidemics and the 1918 influenza outbreak
Timeline of events related to the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 on FRASER
RePEc Biblio topics and subtopics on the economics of pandemics
The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse by Bill Dupor, Rong Li, M. Saif Mehkari, and Yi-Chan Tsai
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2020-004A
Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession by Bill Dupor
Economic Synopses, July 7, 2019
The Black Death in the Malthusian economy
FRED Blog, December 3, 2018
Bank Lending During Recessions by Maximiliano A. Dvorkin and Hannah G. Shell
Economic Synopses, February 5, 2016
The (Unintended?) Consequences of the Largest Liquidity Injection Ever by M Crosignani, Miguel Faria e Castro, and L Fonseca
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2017-039D
Universal Basic Income versus Unemployment Insurance by Alice Fabre, Stéphane Pallage, and Christian Zimmermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2014-047A
Translating Kurzarbeit by
Economic Synopses, June 14, 2013
The Lender of Last Resort: Lessons from the Fed's First 100 Years by Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2012-056B
The Relationships Among Changes in GDP, Employment, and Unemployment: This Time, It’s Different by Juan M. Sánchez and Constanza S. Liborio
Economic Synopses, May 18, 2012
Pandemic Economics: The 1918 Influenza and Its Modern-Day Implications by Thomas A. Garrett
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2008, Vol. 90, No. 2
Monetary Policy in the Great Depression and Beyond: The Sources of the Fed's Inflation Bias by David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 1997-11
COVID-19
Employment, Labor, and Unemployment
Finance and Markets
Fiscal Policy and Government Response
International
Macroeconomy
Monetary Policy