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COVID-19 Research Resources

The most-current resources related to the COVID-19 pandemic from the economists and staff of the Research Division: preliminary and published analyses, daily data updates and projections, data tools, and a timeline of related events and policy responses. For more related analysis and resources from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, see the Bank's official COVID-19 page.

Data Updates

Recent Research by Date

Data and Additional Research Resources

Recent Research by Topic

Data Updates

UPDATEDData on COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Categorized by Financial Distress by Kartik AthreyaRyan MatherJose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
last updated October 26, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020
related publication: On the Economy blog, April 2, 2020

UPDATED: Daily Data and Projections on COVID-19 Death Rates by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
last updated June 29, 2020
first posted online March 30, 2020
related publication: On the Economy blog, April 13, 2020

UPDATEDWeekly Data on Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic by Mahdi EbsimMiguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
last updated July 20, 2020
first posted online April 13, 2020
related publications: On the Economy blog, Part 1, April 9, 2020, Part 2, April 14, 2020, Part 3, May 11, 2020

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Recent Research by Date

The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Deficit During COVID-19: The Role of Essential Medical Goods by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu
Economic Synopses, September 16, 2020

The Decline of Employment During COVID-19: The Role of Contact-Intensive Industries by Matthew FamigliettiFernando Leibovici, and Ana Maria Santacreu
Economic Synopses, September 9, 2020

How Should the Government Spend the Fiscal Budget during the COVID-19 Pandemic? by Serdar BirinciFatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See
On the Economy blog, August 20, 2020

The Effects of Extra Unemployment Benefits on Household Delinquencies by Asha Bharadwaj and Miguel Faria-e-Castro
On the Economy blog, August 18, 2020
first posted online August 13, 2020

Comparing the COVID-19 Recession with the Great Depression by David C. Wheelock
Economic Synopses, August 12, 2020

Home Production and Leisure During the COVID-19 Recession by Oksana Leukhina and Zhixiu Yu
Working paper 2020-25, August 10, 2020

COVID-19's Effects on the Economy and the Fed's Response by Jane Ihrig, Gretchen C. Weinbach, and Scott A. Wolla
Page One Economics, August 10, 2020

The Recent COVID-19 Spike and the U.S. Employment Slowdown by Asha Bharadwaj and Maximiliano Dvorkin
On the Economy blog, August 18, 2020

Labor Market Policies During an Epidemic by Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, and Kurt See
Working paper 2020-24, August 2020

Seigniorage and Sovereign Default: The Response of Emerging Markets to COVID-19 by Emilio Espino, Julian Kozlowski, Fernando M. Martin, and Juan M. Sánchez
Working paper 2020-24, August 2020

Which Earnings Groups Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Crisis? by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci
Economic Synopses, July 14, 2020

COVID-19 and the Great Recession: Market Hours and Home Production across American Households by Oksana Leukhina, Devin Werner, and Zhixiu Yu
On the Economy blog, July 14, 2020

Financial Distress and the Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections by Kartik Athreya, Jose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, July 6, 2020
first posted online July 2, 2020

The Impact of the Fed's Response So Far by Fernando M. Martin
On the Economy blog, June 16, 2020
first posted online May 1, 2020

SPECIAL SURVEYS: The Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses in the Eighth Federal Reserve District by ;Kathryn Bokun and Charles Gascon
last updated June 15, 2020
first posted online May 1, 2020

International Trade Policy During COVID-19 by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu 
Economic Synopses, June 12, 2020

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic IV: Liquidity Buffers by Mahdi EbsimMiguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
On the Economy blog, June 12, 2020
first posted online June 5, 2020

Checking the Temperature of the Labor Market in Real Time by Maximiliano Dvorkin and Asha Bharadwaj
On the Economy blog, June 9, 2020
first posted online June 8, 2020

Endogenous Social Distancing in an Epidemic by Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Working paper 2020-013A, June 2020

Updated May 1-May 31

Unemployment Insurance and Vulnerable Households During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Serdar Birinci 
Economic Synopses, May 27, 2020

Bad Medicine? Federal Debt and Deficits after COVID-19 by Kevin L. Kliesen
Economic Synopses, May 26, 2020

PRELIMINARY: Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock? by Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, and Miguel Faria-e-Castro
posted online May 19, 2020

What Can We Learn from the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-19 for COVID-19? by David C. Wheelock 
Economic Synopses, May 18, 2020 

Measuring Sectoral Supply and Demand Shocks during COVID-19 by Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, and Miguel Faria e Castro 
Working paper 2020-011, May 2020

Ready for the Pandemic? Household Debt before the COVID-19 Shock by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga
On the Economy blog, May 13, 2020
first posted online May 11, 2020

PRELIMINARY: The Social Value of a Vaccine for the COVID-19 Epidemic by Carlos GarrigaRody Manuelli, and Sid Sanghi
posted online May 13, 2020

PRELIMINARY: Optimal Management of the COVID-19 Epidemic: When and How To Reopen the Economy? by Carlos GarrigaRody Manuelli, and Sid Sanghi
posted online May 13, 2020

Reopening the U.S. Economy an Industry at a Time by Fernando LeiboviciAna Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti 
On the Economy blog, May 12, 2020

Federal Reserve System International Facilities by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, May 8, 2020

COVID-19 Cases and Deaths: Comparing the Eighth Federal Reserve District and the U.S. by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Economic Synopses, May 7, 2020

International Trade of Essential Goods During a Pandemic by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu
Working paper 2020-010B, May 2020
first posted online May 5, 2020

PRELIMINARY: The GDP Impact of Economic Shutdowns by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett
posted online May 5, 2020

How Will COVID-19 Affect Financial Assets, Delinquency and Bankruptcy? by Kartik AthreyaRyan MatherJose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, May 4, 2020
first posted online April 17, 2020

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic III: Variance Across Sectors and Firms by Mahdi EbsimMiguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
On the Economy blog, May 11, 2020
first posted online May 4, 2020

Updated April 18-April 30

COVID-19, School Closings and Labor Market Impacts by Charles Gascon and Aaron Amburgey 
On the Economy blog, April 30, 2020

Reopening the U.S.: Gauging the Trend of COVID-19 Transmissions by B. RavikumarGuillaume Vandenbroucke, and Ryan Mather 
On the Economy blog, April 28, 2020

The Value of $600 Across States Hit Hardest by COVID-19 by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett
Economic Synopses, April 28, 2020
first posted online April 24, 2020

How Will COVID-19 Affect the Spending of Financially Distressed Households? by Kartik AthreyaRyan MatherJose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, April 23, 2020
first posted online April 10, 2020

The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part II by Makenzie PeakeB. Ravikumar, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Economic Synopses, April 23, 2020

The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part I by Makenzie PeakeB. Ravikumar, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
Economic Synopses, April 22, 2020

Central Bank Responses to COVID-19 by Jacob Haas and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 21, 2020
first posted online April 20, 2020

Will Workers Want To Be Laid Off? by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett
Economic Synopses, April 18, 2020
first posted online April 15, 2020

Updated April 11-April 17

Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci
Economic Synopses, April 17, 2020
first posted online April 15, 2020

Supporting Small Borrowers: ABS Markets and the TALF by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 16, 2020
first posted online April 13, 2020

Fed Intervention in the To-Be-Announced Market for Mortgage-Backed Securities by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 15, 2020
first posted online April 10, 2020

Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19 by Julian Kozlowski, Laura Veldkamp, and Venky Venkateswaran
Working paper 2020-009A, April 2020
first posted online April 15, 2020

Is the U.S. Looking Like Italy? Projections on COVID-19 Death Rates by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
On the Economy blog, April 14, 2020

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic II: Heterogeneity across Sectors by Mahdi EbsimMiguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
On the Economy blog, April 14, 2020
first posted online April 10, 2020

The Wage Bills of COVID-19 by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett
Economic Synopses, April 14, 2020
first posted online April 9, 2020

The Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Markets across the U.S. by Maximiliano Dvorkin 
On the Economy blog, April 13, 2020
first posted online April 3, 2020

The Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Supports Main Street by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely
Economic Synopses, April 13, 2020
first posted online April 8, 2020

How Bad Can It Be? The Relationship between GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate by YiLi Chien 
Economic Synopses, April 11, 2020
first posted online April 1, 2020

Updated April 4-April 10

Protectionism and Import Dependence on Essential Medical Equipment by Fernando LeiboviciAna Maria Santacreu, and Makenzie Peake 
On the Economy blog, April 10, 2020
first posted online April 8, 2020

The Stock Market's Wild Ride by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely 
Economic Synopses, April 10, 2020
first posted online April 7, 2020

The Year of Living Dangerously: The COVID-19 Shock and the Probability of Deflation by Kevin Kliesen
Economic Synopses, April 9, 2020

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic by Mahdi EbsimMiguel Faria-e-Castro, and Julian Kozlowski
On the Economy blog, April 9,2020
first posted online April 6, 2020

How Much Does the U.S. Rely on Other Countries for Essential Medical Equipment? by Fernando LeiboviciAna Maria Santacreu, and Makenzie Peake
On the Economy blog, April 8, 2020
first posted online April 3, 2020

How the Impact of Social Distancing Ripples through the Economy by Fernando LeiboviciAna Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti 
On the Economy blog, April 7, 2020
first posted online April 2, 2020

How Long Will the Relief Check Last? by YiLi Chien 
Economic Synopses, April 6, 2020
first posted online April 2, 2020

COVID-19's Economic Effects on Poor and Emerging Markets by Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria
On the Economy blog, April 6, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020

Updated March 28-April 3

COVID-19 and Unemployment Risk: State and MSA Differences by Charles Gascon and Devin Werner
On the Economy blog, April 3, 2020

U.S. States Hit the Hardest by COVID-19 Have Lower Unemployment Risks by Sungki Hong and Devin Werner
Economic Synopses, April 3, 2020

COVID-19: Forecasting with Slow and Fast Data by Michael McCracken
On the Economy blog, April 3, 2020
first posted online April 1, 2020

How Closing Restaurants and Hotels Spills Over to Total Employment by Carlos GarrigaRyan Mather, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, April 2, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020

COVID-19: Projected Deaths in the U.S. by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
On the Economy blog, April 1, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020

House Hunting in a Period of Social Distancing by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga
On the Economy blog, April 1, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020

Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic Part I: Financial Markets and Monetary Policy by Fernando M. Martin
Economic Synopses, March 30, 2020

Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part II: The Economy and Fiscal Policy by Fernando M. Martin
Economic Synopses, March 30, 2020

COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth? by Michael T. Owyang, Hannah G. Shell, and Julie K. Bennett
On the Economy blog, March 30, 2020

Updated March 21-March 27

COVID-19 and the Importance of Testing by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke
On the Economy blog, March 27, 2020
first posted online March 27, 2020

How Fast Has COVID-19 Been Spreading? by Guillaume Vandenbroucke
On the Economy blog, March 27, 2020
first posted online as The Speed of COVID-19, March 27, 2020

The Effects of COVID-19 on Unemployment Insurance Claims by Serdar Birinci and Aaron Amburgey
Economic Synopses, March 27, 2020

Fiscal Policy and COVID-19: Insights from a Quantitative Model by Miguel Faria e Castro
Economic Synopses, March 27, 2020

COVID-19 and Financial Distress: Employment Vulnerability by Kartik AthreyaRyan MatherJose Mustre-del-Río, and Juan M. Sánchez
On the Economy blog, March 26, 2020

The St. Louis Fed's Financial Stress Index, Version 2.0 by Kevin Kliesen and Michael McCracken
On the Economy blog, March 26, 2020

The Efficacy of Enhanced Unemployment Benefits during a Pandemic by Bill Dupor 
Regional Economist, March 24, 2020

Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate by Miguel Faria e Castro
On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020

Social Distancing and Contact-Intensive Occupations by Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, and Matthew Famiglietti
On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020

COVID-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk? by Charles S. Gascon  
On the Economy blog, March 24, 2020

Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period by James Bullard 
On the Economy blog, March 23, 2020

Fiscal Policy during a Pandemic by Miguel Faria e Castro
Working Paper 2020-006, March 23, 2020

How Many Employees Are Prepared to Work from Home? by Charles S. Gascon and Mahdi Ebsim
On the Economy blog, March 23, 2020

Updated March 14-March 20

COVID-19’s Shock on Firms’ Liquidity and Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Great Recession by Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici
Economic Synopses, March 20, 2020

How Quickly Does Fiscal Policy Get Implemented? by Bill Dupor
On the Economy blog, March 18, 2020

Possible Fiscal Policies for Rare, Unanticipated and Severe Viral Outbreaks by Bill Dupor
Economic Synopses, March 17, 2020
On the Economy blog, March 17, 2020

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Data and Additional Research Resources

COVID-19

COVID-19 Economic Data tracking dashboard on FRED

COVID-19 Financial Data tracking dashboard on FRED

Timeline of Events Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic on FRASER, the digital library of economic history

Tracking the U.S. economy and financial markets during the COVID-19 outbreak on FREDBlog

Social distancing and employment loss in leisure and hospitality on FREDBlog

Latest RePEc papers on COVID-19. RePEc IDEAS is a bibliographic database of economic research indexing more than one million academic articles and papers.

COVID-19 Information from across the Federal Reserve System

Other Research Division Resources on Pandemics, Recessions, and Crises

Epidemics, Pandemics and the Economy, a FRASER blog post on historical resources related to historical epidemics and the 1918 influenza outbreak

Timeline of events related to the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 on FRASER

RePEc Biblio topics and subtopics on the economics of pandemics

The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse by Bill Dupor, Rong Li, M. Saif Mehkari, and Yi-Chan Tsai
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2020-004A

Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession by Bill Dupor
Economic Synopses, July 7, 2019

The Black Death in the Malthusian economy
FRED Blog, December 3, 2018

Bank Lending During Recessions by Maximiliano A. Dvorkin and Hannah G. Shell
Economic Synopses, February 5, 2016

The (Unintended?) Consequences of the Largest Liquidity Injection Ever by M Crosignani, Miguel Faria e Castro, and L Fonseca
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2017-039D

Universal Basic Income versus Unemployment Insurance by Alice Fabre, Stéphane Pallage, and Christian Zimmermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2014-047A

Translating Kurzarbeit by Silvio Contessi and Li Li
Economic Synopses, June 14, 2013

The Lender of Last Resort: Lessons from the Fed's First 100 Years by Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 2012-056B

The Relationships Among Changes in GDP, Employment, and Unemployment: This Time, It’s Different by Juan M. Sánchez and Constanza S. Liborio
Economic Synopses, May 18, 2012

Pandemic Economics: The 1918 Influenza and Its Modern-Day Implications by Thomas A. Garrett
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2008,  Vol. 90, No. 2

Monetary Policy in the Great Depression and Beyond: The Sources of the Fed's Inflation Bias by David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper 1997-11


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Recent Research by Topic 

COVID-19

Employment, Labor, and Unemployment

Finance and Markets

Fiscal Policy and Government Response

International

Macroeconomy

Monetary Policy  

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