Education
Ph.D. Economics
University of California
San Diego
2000
M.A. Economics
University of California
San Diego
1996
B.A. Economics
University of California
Berkeley
1992
B.S. Mechanical Engineering
University of California
Berkeley
1992
Contact Info
Phone: (314) 444-8558
Fax: (314) 444-8731
Email: Michael.T.Owyang@stls.frb.org
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
For media inquiries contact:
Adam Allington
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Office: (314) 444-8783
Cell: (314) 313-3783
Michael T. Owyang
Research Officer
Areas of Interest
- Time Series Econometrics
- Bayesian Econometrics
- Markov Switching
Events
Applied Econometrics and Forecasting in Macroeconomics and Finance Workshops
Upcoming: April 12, 2013
Selected Publications in Refereed Journals
"Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data"
with Valerie A. Ramey and Sarah Zubairy
FORTHCOMING: American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings
"Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing
with Ivana Komunjer
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4: 1066-1080.
Online Appendix
"The Propagation of Regional Recessions"
James D. Hamilton, Michael T. Owyang
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4: 935-947.
"Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2005, 87(4), pp. 604-16.
"Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle"
with Neville Francis, University of North Carolina
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, July 2005, 23(3), pp. 305-13.
"Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement"
with Garey Ramey, University of California, San Diego
Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2004, 51(8), pp. 1577-98.
Working Papers
"Federal Reserve Forecasts: Asymmetry and State-Dependence"
with Julieta Caunedo, Riccardo DiCecio, and Ivana Komunjer
Working Paper 2013-012A, posted March 2013.
"Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?"
with Andra C. Ghent and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Working Paper 2012-005B, posted March 2012, updated August 2012.
"Race, Redlining, and Subprime Loan Pricing"
with Andra C. Ghent and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Working Paper 2011-033B, posted October 2011, updated July 2012.
"Forecasting National Recessions Using State Level Data"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Working Paper 2012-013A, posted April 2012, updated May 2012.
"An Endogenously Clustered Factor Approach to International Business Cycles"
with Neville Francis and Özge Savascin
Working Paper 2012-014A, posted April 2012.
Current Research Projects
"Defining Financial Stress: An Application of the Factor-Augmented Smooth Transition Autoregression"
with Ana Beatriz Galvao
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review
"Okun's Law over the Business Cycle: Was the Great Recession All That Different?"
with Tatevik Sekhposyan
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012, 94(5), pp. 399-418.
"Disentangling Diverse Measures: A Survey of Financial Stress Indexes"
with Kevin L. Kliesen and E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012, 94(5), pp. 369-398.
"Where There’s a Smoking Ban, There’s Still Fire"
with E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2012, 94(4), pp.265-286.
"Regional Aggregation in Forecasting: An Application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2011, 93(3), pp. 207-222.
"Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation"
with Rubén Hernández-Murillo, Leslie S. Ott, and Denise Whalen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2011, 93(3), pp. 169-186.
"Forecasting with Mixed Frequencies"
with Michelle T. Armesto and Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2010, 92(6), pp. 521-36.
"Nonlinear Effects of School Quality on House Prices"
with Abbigail Chiodo and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2010, 92(3), pp. 185-204.
Other Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Publications
"Measuring the Effect of School Choice on Economic Outcomes"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, October 2012, Vol 20(4), pp. 5-9.
"Unconventional Oil Production: Stuck in a Rock and a Hard Place"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, July 2010, pp. 14-15.
"A Winning Combination? Economic Theory Meets Sports"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, January 2009, pp. 10-13.
"Regional Aggregation in Forecasting: An Application to the Federal Reserve's Eighth District"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economic Development, October 2008, 4(1), pp. 15-29.
Recent Commentary
"Using Brent and WTI Oil Prices to Predict Gasoline Prices"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 36.
"When Do Recessions Begin and End?"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 38.
