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Key Policy Statements
  • Income inequality:
    "Income Inequality and Monetary Policy: A Framework with Answers to Three Questions." C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations, New York.
    Considers U.S. income, wealth, and consumption inequality through the lens of a standard life cycle framework, and argues that a large fraction (perhaps 75%) of observed inequality in income and wealth is benign, because credit markets work to translate these disparities into relatively smooth consumption over the life cycle. Three questions are posed and answered concerning the monetary policy impact on this process.
  • Labor force participation:
    "The Rise and Fall of Labor Force Participation in the U.S." Speech, Washington, D.C.
    Reviews the existing economic literature on labor force participation in the U.S., and suggests that most movements in labor force participation can be explained with an appropriately rich empirical model emphasizing demographic factors. This suggests, in turn, that recent declines in the unemployment rate indicate genuine improvement in labor market conditions.
  • Monetary policy during 2008:
    "The Notorious Summer of 2008." Presentation, Rogers, Arkansas.
    Offers perspective on macroeconomic developments during 2008, stressing Fed easing during 2007-2008, unprecedented commodity price movements during the Spring of 2008, and real-time data indicating a modestly successful policy mitigating the financial crisis as of August 2008.
  • Asset purchases for the ECB:
    "Monetary Policy in a Low Rate Environment." Invited lecture, Frankfurt am Main, and invited lecture, London.
    Suggests that QE may be the best approach to monetary policy for the Euro-area when the policy rate is at zero and inflation is falling.
  • Unemployment targeting:
    "Some Unpleasant Implications for Unemployment Targeters." Presentation, New York.
    Cites research suggesting that "putting more weight" on unemployment when making monetary policy may be counterproductive.
  • Central bank independence:
    "The Global Battle Over Central Bank Independence." Presentation for AEA panel discussion, San Diego.
    Suggests the global consensus on central bank independence is weakening, and that the continued "fiscalization" of monetary policy will complicate monetary policy choices substantially in the future.
  • Measuring the stance of monetary policy:
    "Shadow Interest Rates and the Stance of U.S. Monetary Policy." Presentation at Washington University in St. Louis.
    Cites research suggesting that the "shadow federal funds rate" may provide an important gauge of the stance of monetary policy when the policy rate is near zero.
  • Nominal GDP targeting and price level targeting:
    "A Singular Achievement of Recent Monetary Policy." Invited lecture, Notre Dame.
    "Price Level Targeting: The Fed Has It About Right." Presentation, Memphis.
    Presents evidence that the Fed has behaved approximately like a price-level targeting central bank since the mid-1990s, and suggests that there would be little or nothing to gain from a switch to price level targeting or nominal GDP targeting.
  • The European sovereign debt crisis:
    "The Global Economy and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis." Invited lecture, London.
    Discusses a solution to the European sovereign debt crisis involving a grand bargain along the lines suggested by Thomas J. Sargent.
  • Dual versus single mandate for monetary policy:
    "Hawks, Doves, Bubbles, and Inflation Targets." Invited lecture, Utah State University.
    Shows why achieving price stability can be viewed as completely consistent with achieving full employment in the context of a leading model of the macroeconomy with monetary policy.
  • Global output gaps:
    "Global Output Gaps: Wave of the Future?" Presentation, Beijing.
    Discusses some recent literature on global output gaps and the relation to U.S. monetary policy.
  • Lower potential output in the U.S.:
    "Inflation Targeting in the U.S.A.," Speech, Chicago.
    "Views on the U.S. Economy: A Four-Part Story." Presentation, Jackson Hole. (See Part IV).
    Argues that it is unrealistic to think of U.S. potential output as a trend line from the Q4 2007 level of GDP, since that level of output was part of the housing bubble.
  • Effectiveness of QE:
    "QE2: An Assessment." Presentation at the Quantitative Easing Conference, St. Louis.
    "QE2 in Five Easy Pieces." Presentation, New York.
    Argues that QE2 was quite effective in terms of the financial market signature associated with the implementation of the program.
  • Fiscal versus monetary policy:
    "Death of a Theory." Speech, Chicago.
    Cites and evaluates recent New Keynesian literature to argue that stabilization policy conducted by the fiscal authority is unlikely to be effective.
  • Measuring inflation:
    "Measuring Inflation: The Core is Rotten." Speech, New York.
    Argues that headline inflation provides the most appropriate metric for measuring inflation in the U.S., and that traditional arguments in favor of core inflation are much weaker than commonly appreciated.
  • Permanent zero nominal interest rates:
    "Reducing Deflationary Risk in the U.S." Presentation, Marseille.
    "The Seven Faces of 'The Peril.'" Research paper.
    Cites research on liquidity traps to argue that promises to keep the policy rate at zero can be counterproductive, and argues that quantitative easing provides the best hope for avoiding the Japan-like deflationary steady state.
  • The state of research in macroeconomics:
    "Research in Macroeconomics after the Crisis." Presentation, George Washington University.
    Suggests that the U.S. needs to upgrade its macroeconomic research program substantially.
  • Financial crisis:
    "Systemic Risk and the Financial Crisis: A Primer." Research paper.
    Provides an overview of systemic risk in the context of the event of 2007-2008.
  • Changing macroeconomic landscape:
    "Three Funerals and a Wedding." Speech, Evansville.
    Cites three popular ideas in macroeconomics on the decline due to the financial crisis, and one previously unpopular idea on the rise.
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Keeping Track of the Financial Crisis, Regulatory Reform and the FOMC
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President Bullard Speaks with Fox Business, August 22, 2014
August 22, 2014
President Bullard Discusses Labor Market Indicators, Liftoff with Fox Business
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that as long as the economy continues to improve, the FOMC could start to normalize monetary policy. During this interview with Fox Business, he also discussed labor market indicators, inflation and forward guidance.
President Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy on CNBC’s Squawk Box, August 22, 2014
August 22, 2014
President Bullard Discusses U.S. Economy, Monetary Policy on CNBC's "Squawk Box"
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard shared his views on the improving U.S. economy and the progress in the labor market in recent years. He also discussed monetary policy normalization during an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
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