Education
Ph.D. Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
1976
M.S. Economics
Arizona State University
1969
B.A. Economics
Parsons College
1967
Contact Info
Phone: (314) 444-8582
Fax: (314) 444-8731
Email: thornton@stls.frb.org
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
For media inquiries contact:
Ben C. Hardaway
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Office: (314) 444-8783
Cell: (314) 341-2714
Daniel L. Thornton
Vice President and Economic Adviser
Material on the Financial Crisis and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Financial Crisis
"What Does the Change in the FOMC's Statement of Objectives Mean?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 1.
"A Perspective on Financial Market Reform"
Prepared for the International Center for Banking and Corporate Governance, July 25, 2010.
"The Fed, Liquidity, and Credit Allocation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2009, 91(1), pp. 13-21.
"Monetary Policy and Longer-Term Rates: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 36.
"The Downside of Quantitative Easing"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 34.
"Would QE2 Have a Significant Effect on Economic Growth, Employment, or Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 29.
"Can the FOMC Increase the Funds Rate Without Reducing Reserves?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 28.
"Which Comes First: Inflation or the FOMC's Funds Rate Target?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 25.
"Monetizing the Debt"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 14.
"Negating the Inflation Potential of the Fed's Lending Programs"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 30.
"What the Libor-OIS Spread Says"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 24.
Other New Material
"Quantitative Easing and Money Growth: Potential for Higher Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 4.
"How Did We Get to Inflation Targeting and Where Do We Need to Go to Now? A Perspective from the U.S. Experience"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012, 94(1), pp. 65-82.
"How Good Are the Government’s Deficit and Debt Projections and Should We Care?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012, 94(1), pp. 21-40.
"Inflation Objective and Policy Credibility: A Potential Problem for the FOMC"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 38.
"Why Is Employment Growth So Low?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 37.
"The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Term Auction Facility"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2011, 93(6), pp. 439-454.
"The FOMC's Interest Rate Policy: How Long Is the Long Run?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 29.
"Hamilton-Wu Treasury Debt Structure Data"
"The Federal Debt: What’s the Source of the Increase in Spending?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 21.
"The Federal Debt: Too Little Revenue or Too Much Spending"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 20.
"Is the FOMC's Policy Inflating Asset Prices?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 18.
"Core Versus Headline Inflation Again"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 16.
"Core Versus Headline Inflation: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 12.
Speeches
"Economic and Financial Outlook, 2002" Remarks made at the 38th Annual Meeting of the Missouri Valley Economics Association. February 2002
"Economic Outlook—2002" Meeting of the Paducah Kentucky Chamber of Commerce. December 2001
Working Papers
"The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Term Auction Facility"
Working Paper 2010-044A posted October 2010
"Out-of-sample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns and Forward Rates: An Asset-Allocation Perspective"
with Giorgio Valente
Working Paper 2010-034A posted October 2010
"Predictions of Short-Term Rates and the Expectations Hypothesis"
with Massimo Guidolin
Working Paper 2010-013B posted May 2010, updated January 2011
"The Identification of the Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Actions Using Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks"
Working Paper 2009-037A posted August 2009
"Revisiting the Predictability of Bond Risk Premia"
with Giorgio Valente
Working Paper 2009-009A posted March 2009
"Resolving the Unbiasedness Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market"
Working Paper 2009-002A posted January 2009
"Monetary Policy: Why Money Matters and Interest Rates Don’t"
Working Paper 2008-011A posted May 2008
"The Unusual Behavior of the Federal Funds Rate and Treasury Yields: A Conundrum or an Instance of Goodhart’s Law?"
Working Paper 2007-039C posted September 2007, updated August 2010
"Resolving the Unbiasedness and Forward Premium Puzzles"
Working Paper 2007-014A posted March 2007
"The Daily and Policy-Relevant Liquidity Effects"
Working Paper 2007-001B posted January 2007, updated November 2007
"The Daily Liquidity Effect"
Working Paper 2006-020A posted April 2006
"A New Federal Funds Rate Target Series: September 27, 1982 - December 31, 1993"
Working Paper 2005-032A posted May 2005
Publications
"The Phillips Curve and US
Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us"
with Ellen E. Meade
FORTHCOMING: Oxford Economic Papers
"How Did We Get to Inflation Targeting and Where Do We Go Now? A Perspective From the U.S. Experience"
David Cobham, Øyvind Eitrheim, Stefan Gerlach and Jan Qvigstad, eds., Twenty Years of Inflation Targeting: Lessons Learned and
Future Prospects, 2010, pp. 90-110, Cambridge University Press.
"The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value"
with Pasquale Della Corte and Lucio Sarno
Journal of Financial Economics, July 2008, 89(1), pp. 158-74.
"What's Unique About the Federal Funds Rate? Evidence from the Spectral Perspective"
with Lucio Sarno and Yi Wen
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, April 2007, 69(2), pp. 293-319.
"The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields"
with Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, March 2007, 42(1), pp. 81-100.
"When Did the FOMC Begin Targeting the Federal Funds Rate? What the Verbatim Transcripts Tell Us"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, December 2006, 38(8), pp. 2039-71.
"Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, March 2006, 38(2), pp. 511-42.
"Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Anomalies When the Short-Term Rate Is the Federal Funds Rate"
Journal of Banking and Finance, October 2005, 29(10), pp. 2541-56.
"Federal Funds Rate Prediction"
with Lucio Sarno and Giorgio Valente
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, June 2005, 37(3), pp. 449-71.
"A Note On The Expectations Hypothesis At The Founding Of The Fed"
with Clemens J. M. Kool
Journal of Banking and Finance, December 2004, 28(12), pp. 3055-68.
"Forecasting the Treasury's Balance at the Fed"
Journal of Forecasting, August 2004, 23(5), pp. 357-71.
"Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan"
Bank of Japan Monetary and Economic Studies, May 2004, 22(2), pp. 45-69.
"The Fed and Short-term Interest Rates: Is It Open Market Operations, Open Mouth or Interest Rate Smoothing"
Journal of Banking and Finance, March 2004, 28(3), pp.475-98.
"Monetary Policy Transparency: Transparent about What?"
The Manchester School, September 2003, 71(5), pp. 478-97.
"The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds Rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation"
with Lucio Sarno
Journal of Banking and Finance, June 2003, 27(6), pp. 1079-110.
"The Federal Reserve's Operating Procedures, Nonborrowed Reserves, Borrowed Reserves and the Liquidity Effect"
Journal of Banking and Finance, September 2001, 25(9), pp. 1717-39
"Lifting the Veil of Secrecy From Monetary Policy: Evidence From the Fed's Early Discount Rate Policy"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 2000, 32(2), pp. 155-67.
"The Information Content of Discount Rate Announcements: What is Behind the Announcement Effect?"
Journal of Banking and Finance, January 1998, 22(1), pp. 83-108.
"The Information Content of the Federal Funds Rate: Is It Unique?"
with M. Garfinkel
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 1995, 27(3), pp. 838-47.
"Why Do T-Bill Rates React to Discount Rate Changes?"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1994, 26(4), pp. 839-50.
"Comments on Federal Reserve Operating Procedures and Institutional Change"
Marvin S. Goodfriend and David H. Small, eds., Operating Procedures and the Conduct of Monetary Policy Conference Proceedings,
Financial and Economics Discussion Series, Working Studies, March 1993, 1(2).
"Financial Innovation: Causes and Consequences"
with C. Stone
Kevin Dowd and Mervyn K. Lewis, eds., Current Issues in Monetary Analysis and Policy, MacMillan Publishers, 1991.
Financial and Monetary Economics, 1992, pp. 81-109.
"Why Do Market Interest Rates Respond to Money Announcements?"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 1991, 1(1), pp. 33-60.
"Modeling the Demand for Money in Large Industrial Countries Buffer Stock and Error Correction Approaches: A Discussion"
Journal of Policy Modeling, Summer 1990, pp. 463-67.
"The Effect of Unanticipated Money on the Money and Foreign Exchange Markets"
Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1989, 8(4), pp. 573-87.
"On the Informational Content of Spot and Forward Exchange Rates"
with K. Alec Chrystal
Journal of International Money and Finance, September 1988, 7(3), pp. 321-30.
"A Note on the Efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt Estimator of the AR(1) Regression Model"
Journal of Econometrics, November 1987, 36(3), pp. 369-76.
"Price Expectations and the Demand for Money: A Comment"
with R. W. Hafer
Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1986, 68(3), pp. 539-42.
"Monetary Anticipations and the Demand for Money: Reply"
with Jack Carr and Michael R. Darby
Journal of Monetary Economics, September 1985, 16(2), pp. 251-57.
"A Note on Almon's Endpoint Constraints"
with Dallas S. Batten
Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 1985, pp. 683-90.
"The Andersen-Jordan Equation, Revisited"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1985, 7(3), pp. 419-32.
"On the Appropriate Interest Rate and Scale Variable in Money Demand: Results From Non-Nested Tests"
Applied Economics, August 1985, 17(4), pp. 735-44.
"Lag Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality Between Money and Income"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 1985, 17(2), pp. 164-78.
"Discount Rate Changes and the Foreign Exchange Market"
with Dallas S. Batten
Journal of International Money and Finance, December 1984, 3(3), pp. 279-92.
"The Government Budget Constraint with Endogenous Money"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1984, 6(1), pp. 57-67.
"Bank Money, Net Wealth and the Real-Balance Effect"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1983, 5(1), pp. 105-17.
"The Long-Run and Short-Run Demand for Money: Additional Evidence"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1982, 4(3), pp. 325-38.
"Maximum Likelihood Estimates of a Partial Adjustment-Adaptive Expectations Model of the Demand for Money"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1982, 64(2), pp. 325-29.
"Bank Money as Net Wealth: A Comment"
Atlantic Economic Journal, December 1981, 9(4), pp. 43-5.
"The Empirical Significance of the Real Balance Effect"
with Paul E. Smith
Journal of Macroeconomics, Summer 1980, 2(3), pp. 213-32.
"In-Service Education and its Effects on Secondary Students: A New Approach"
with George M. Vredeveld
Journal of Economic Education, Spring 1977, 8(2), pp. 93-9.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review Articles
"How Did We Get to Inflation Targeting and Where Do We Need to Go to Now? A Perspective from the U.S. Experience"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012, 94(1), pp. 65-82.
"How Good Are the Government’s Deficit and Debt Projections and Should We Care?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012, 94(1), pp. 21-40.
"The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Term Auction Facility"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2011, 93(6), pp. 439-454.
"The Relationship Between the Daily and Policy-Relevant Liquidity Effects"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2010, 92(1), pp. 73-87.
"The Fed, Liquidity, and Credit Allocation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2009, 91(1), pp. 13-21.
"A Primer on the Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance"
with Daniel J. McDonald
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2008, 90(1), pp. 31-45.
"Open Market Operations and the Federal Funds Rate"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2007, 89(6), pp. 549-70.
Also printed in D.G. Mayes and J. Toporowski, eds., Open Market Operations and Financial Markets,
Routledge International Studies in Money and Banking, London, 2007, pp. 178-202.
"The Lower and Upper Bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's Long-Run Inflation Objective"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2007, 89(3), pp. 183-93.
"Testing the Expectations Hypothesis: Some New Evidence for Japan"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/ October 2004, 86(5), pp. 21-39.
"The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Identification in Structural VARs"
with Lucio Sarno
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2004, 86(1), pp. 47-60.
"The FOMC's Balance of Risks Statement and Market Expectations of Policy Actions"
with Robert H. Rasche
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2002, 84(5), pp. 37-50.
"Market Anticipations of Monetary Policy Actions"
with William Poole and Robert H. Rasche
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2002, 84(4), pp. 65-94.
"Identifying the Liquidity Effect at the Daily Frequency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2001, 83(4), pp. 59-82.
"The Expected Federal Budget Surplus: How much Confidence Should the Public and Policy Makers Place in the Projections?"
with K. L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2001, 83(2), pp. 11-24.
"A History of the Asymmetric Policy Directive"
with D. C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2000, 82(5), pp. 1-16.
"Money in a Theory of Exchange"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2000, 82(1), pp. 35-62.
"Tests of the Market's Reaction to Federal Funds Rate Target Changes"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1998, 80(6), pp. 25-36.
"Using the Federal Funds Futures Market to Predict Federal Reserve Actions"
with J.C. Robertson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1997, 79(6), pp. 45-53.
"Does the Fed's New Policy of Immediate Disclosure Affect the Market?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1996, 78(6), pp. 77-88.
"The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability: An Assessment of Howitt's Rule"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 1996, 78(2), pp. 23-28.
"Is There a Case for "Moderate" Inflation?"
with A. L. Marty
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1995, 77(4), pp. 27-37.
"Financial Innovation and Deregulation and the 'Credit View' of Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 1994, 76(1), pp. 31-49.
"An Extended Series of Divisia Monetary Aggregates"
with Piyu Yue
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1992, 74(6), pp. 35-52.
"Targeting M2: The Issue of Monetary Control"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1992, 74(4), pp. 23-35.
"Alternative Measures of the Monetary Base: What Are the Differences and Are They Important?"
with Michelle R. Garfinkel
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1991, 73(6), pp. 19-35.
"The Multiplier Approach to the Money Supply Process: A Precautionary Note"
with Michelle R. Garfinkel
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1991, 73(4), pp. 47-64.
"A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income"
with David A. Dickey and Dennis W. Jansen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 1991, 73(2), pp. 58-78
Reprinted in B. Bhaskara Rao, ed., Cointegration for the Applied Economist, St. Martin's Press, 1994 and Omar R. Hamouda, ed., Foundations of Probability, Econometrics and Economic Games, Edward Elgar, 1996.
"Do Government Deficits Matter?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1990, 72(5), pp. 25-39.
"The Link Between M1 and the Monetary Base in the 1980s"
with Michelle R. Garfinkel
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1989, 71(5), pp. 35-52.
"Tests of Covered Interest Rate Parity"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1989, 71(4), pp. 55-66.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Deficit Spending: A Review"
with K. Alec Chrystal
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1988, 70(6), pp. 48-60.
"The Effect of Monetary Policy on Short-Term Interest Rates"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,May/June 1988, 70(3), pp. 53-72.
"The Borrowed-Reserves Operating Procedure: Theory and Evidence"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 1988, 70(1), pp. 30-54.
"Solving the 1980's Velocity Puzzle: A Progress Report"
with Courtenay C. Stone
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, August/September 1987, 69(7), pp. 5-23.
"The Monetary-Fiscal Policy Debate and the Andersen-Jordan Equation"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, October 1986, 68(8), pp. 9-17.
"The Discount Rate and Market Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, August/September 1986, 68(7), pp. 5-21.
"The Cost of Checkable Deposits in the United States"
with Kenneth C. Carraro
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, April 1986, 68(4), pp. 19-27.
"Are Weighted Monetary Aggregates Better Than Simple-Sum M1?"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1985, 67(6), pp. 29-40.
"Money Demand Dynamics: Some New Evidence"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March 1985, 67(3), pp. 14-23.
"The Discount Rate, Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange Rates: An Analysis with Daily Data"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, February 1985, 67(2), pp. 22-30.
"Monetizing the Debt"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, December 1984, 66(10), pp. 30-43.
"An Early Look at the Volatility of Money and Interest Rates Under CRR"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, October 1984, 66(8), pp. 26-32.
"How Robust Are the Policy Conclusions of the St. Louis Equation: Some Further Evidence"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1984, 66(6), pp. 26-32.
"Why Does Velocity Matter?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, December 1983, 65(10), pp. 5-13.
"Lagged and Contemporaneous Reserve Accounting: An Alternative View"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November 1983, 65(9), pp. 26-33.
"M1 or M2: Which is the Better Monetary Target"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1983, 65(6), pp 36-42.
"The FOMC in 1982: De-emphasizing M1"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1983, 65(6), pp. 26-35.
"Polynomial Distributed Lags and the Estimation of the St. Louis Equation"
with Dallas S. Batten
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, April 1983, 65(4), pp. 13-25.
"Simple Analytics of the Money Supply Process and Monetary Control"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, October 1982, 64(8), pp. 23-39.
"The Discount Rate and Market Interest Rates: What's the Connection?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, June/July 1982, 64(6), pp. 3-14.
"The FOMC in 1981: Monetary Control in a Changing Financial Environment"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, April 1982, 64(4), pp. 3-22.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist Articles
"Reader Exchange: In response to recent financial market turmoil, the Federal Reserve has introduced an alphabet soup of programs (TAF, TSLF, PDCF, etc.). What are these, and how do they work?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, July 2008, p. 27.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses Articles
"Quantitative Easing and Money Growth: Potential for Higher Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 4.
"Inflation Objective and Policy Credibility: A Potential Problem for the FOMC"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 38.
"Why Is Employment Growth So Low?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 37.
"The FOMC's Interest Rate Policy: How Long Is the Long Run?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 29.
"Tax Rates and Revenue Since the 1970s"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 24.
"The Federal Debt: What’s the Source of the Increase in Spending?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 21.
"The Federal Debt: Too Little Revenue or Too Much Spending"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 20.
"Is the FOMC's Policy Inflating Asset Prices?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 18.
"Core Versus Headline Inflation Again"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 16.
"Core Versus Headline Inflation: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 12.
"Monetary Policy at the Zero Bound"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 7.
"What Does the Change in the FOMC's Statement of Objectives Mean?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 1.
"Monetary Policy and Longer-Term Rates: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 36.
"The Downside of Quantitative Easing"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 34.
"Would QE2 Have a Significant Effect on Economic Growth, Employment, or Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 29.
"Can the FOMC Increase the Funds Rate Without Reducing Reserves?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 28.
"Which Comes First: Inflation or the FOMC's Funds Rate Target?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 25.
"Monetizing the Debt"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 14.
"The Case for 'Inflation First' Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 47.
"Personal Saving and Economic Growth"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 46.
"Would Quantitative Easing Sooner Have Tempered the Financial Crisis and Economic Recession?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 37.
"What Caused Long-Term Rates to Rise?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 32.
"Negating the Inflation Potential of the Fed's Lending Programs"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 30.
"The Effect of the Fed’s Purchase of Long-Term Treasuries on the Yield Curve"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 25.
"What the Libor-OIS Spread Says"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 24.
"A Perspective on the Current Recession: It's Not the 'Worst Case' Yet"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 2.
"Is There Less Agreement About Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 1.
"Walter Bagehot, the Discount Window, and TAF"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 27.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends Cover Pages
"Subprime Side Effects in the Federal Funds Market"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, October 2007.
"Measure for Measure: Headline versus Core Inflation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, September 2007.
"The Federal Funds and Long-Term Rates"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, May 2007.
"The Fed's Inflation Objective"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, July 2006.
""Measured Pace" in the Conduct of Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, March 2006.
"Greenspan's Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off"
with Robert H. Rasche
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, January 2006.
"The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, September 2005.
"The FOMC's "Considerable Period""
with Richard G. Anderson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, February 2004.
"Making Monetary Policy More Transparent"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, January 2004.
"How Effective Is Monetary Policy?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, January 2003.
"Predictability and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, July 2003.
"Alternative Policy Weapons?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, August 2003.
"Withering Dissents"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, August 2002.
"The Codification of and FOMC Procedure"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, March 2001.
"What Accounts for the Reduced Frequency of Fed Actions?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, April 2001.
"Interest Rate Targets Abandoned"
with David Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, June 2001.
"The Monetary/Fiscal Policy Debate: A Controlled Experiment"
with Robert H. Rasche
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, October 2001.
"An Experiment is Underway"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, February 2000.
"The Golden Dollar: The Early Evidence"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, December 2001.
"Nominal Interest Rates: Less Than Zero?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, January 1999.
"The Funds Rate Target and Interest Rates"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, September 1999.
"The Importance of an Asymmetric Directive"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monetary Trends, August 1998.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends Cover Pages
"Social Security, Saving, and Wealth Accumulation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends, May 2005.
"Public Officials and Job Creation"
with Thomas A. Garrett
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends, September 2004.
"Does a Mild Recession Imply a Weak Recovery?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends, March 2000.
"The Exceptional 1990s"
with Cletus Coughlin,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National Economic Trends, March 2000.