Daniel L. Thornton

Standard Vita

Biography

IDEAS

Education

Ph.D. Economics
University of Missouri-Columbia
1976

M.S. Economics
Arizona State University
1969

B.A. Economics
Parsons College
1967

Contact Info

Phone: (314) 444-8582
Fax: (314) 444-8731
Email: thornton@stls.frb.org

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442

For media inquiries contact:
Adam Allington
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Office: (314) 444-8783
Cell: (314) 313-3783

Daniel L. Thornton

Vice President and Economic Adviser

Go to: Financial Crisis | Working Papers | Publications

Articles in: Review | The Regional Economist | Economic Synopses | Monetary Trends | National Economic Trends


Material on the Financial Crisis and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Financial Crisis

"What Does the Change in the FOMC's Statement of Objectives Mean?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 1.

2010-044A "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Term Auction Facility" - October 2010

"A Perspective on Financial Market Reform"
Prepared for the International Center for Banking and Corporate Governance, July 25, 2010.

"The Fed, Liquidity, and Credit Allocation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2009, 91(1), pp. 13-21.

"Monetary Policy and Longer-Term Rates: An Opportunity for Greater Transparency"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 36.

"The Downside of Quantitative Easing"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 34.

"Would QE2 Have a Significant Effect on Economic Growth, Employment, or Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 29.

"Can the FOMC Increase the Funds Rate Without Reducing Reserves?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 28.

"Which Comes First: Inflation or the FOMC's Funds Rate Target?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 25.

"Monetizing the Debt"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 14.

"Negating the Inflation Potential of the Fed's Lending Programs"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 30.

"What the Libor-OIS Spread Says"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 24.

 

Working Papers

"Hamilton-Wu Treasury Debt Structure Data"

"An Evaluation of Event-Study Evidence on the Effectiveness of the FOMC’s LSAP Program: Are the Announcement Effects Identified?"
Working Paper 2013-033B, posted October 2013, updated March 2014.

"How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?"
with Clemens J.M. Kool
Working Paper 2012-063A, posted December 2012.

"Evidence on The Portfolio Balance Channel of Quantitative Easing"
Working Paper 2012-015A, posted June 2012, updated October 2012.

"Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields"
Working Paper 2012-036A, posted September 2012.

"Predictions of Short-Term Rates and the Expectations Hypothesis"
with Massimo Guidolin
Working Paper 2010-013B, posted May 2010, updated January 2011.

"The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Term Auction Facility"
Working Paper 2010-044A, posted October 2010.

"Revisiting the Predictability of Bond Risk Premia"
with Giorgio Valente
Working Paper 2009-009A, posted March 2009.

"Resolving the Unbiasedness Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market"
Working Paper 2009-002A, posted January 2009.

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Publications

"Monetary Policy: Why Money Matters, and Interest Rates Don’t"
FORTHCOMING: Journal of Macroeconomics.

“The Federal Reserve's response to the financial crisis: what it did and what it should have done,” in Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling, Jagjit S. Chadha, Alain C.J. Durre, Michael A.S. Joyce, and Lucio Sarno, eds, Cambridge University Press, 2014, 90-120.

"The Identification of the Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Policy Actions Using Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Shocks"
Oxford Economic Papers, January 2014, 66(1), pp. 67-87.

"The Effect of Underreporting on LIBOR Rates"
with Andrea Monticini
Journal of Macroeconomics, September 2013, 37, pp. 345-348.

"Out-of-Sample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns with Forward Rates: An Asset-Allocation Perspective"
with Giorgio Valente
Review of Financial Studies, October 2012, 25 (10), pp. 3141-3168.
Published Article

"The Phillips Curve and US Monetary Policy: What the FOMC Transcripts Tell Us"
with Ellen E. Meade
Oxford Economic Papers, April 2012, 64, pp. 197-216.

"How Did We Get to Inflation Targeting and Where Do We Go Now? A Perspective From the U.S. Experience"
Inflation Targeting Twenty Years On: Past Lessons and Future Prospects. David Cobham, Øyvind Eitrheim, Stefan Gerlach and Jan Qvigstad, (ed.) Cambridge University Press, pp. 90-110.

"The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value"
with Pasquale Della Corte and Lucio Sarno
Journal of Financial Economics, July 2008, 89(1), pp. 158-74.

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review Articles

"QE: Is There a Portfolio Balance Effect?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2014, 96(1), pp. 55-72.

"The U.S. Deficit/Debt Problem: A Longer-Run Perspective"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2012, 94(6), pp. 441-456.

"The Dual Mandate: Has the Fed Changed Its Objective?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2012, 94(2), pp. 117-134.

"How Did We Get to Inflation Targeting and Where Do We Need to Go to Now? A Perspective from the U.S. Experience"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012, 94(1), pp. 65-82.

"How Good Are the Government’s Deficit and Debt Projections and Should We Care?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2012, 94(1), pp. 21-40.

"The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Term Auction Facility"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2011, 93(6), pp. 439-454.

"The Relationship Between the Daily and Policy-Relevant Liquidity Effects"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2010, 92(1), pp. 73-87.

"The Fed, Liquidity, and Credit Allocation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2009, 91(1), pp. 13-21.

"A Primer on the Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance"
with Daniel J. McDonald
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2008, 90(1), pp. 31-45.

"Open Market Operations and the Federal Funds Rate"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2007, 89(6), pp. 549-70.
Also printed in D.G. Mayes and J. Toporowski, eds., Open Market Operations and Financial Markets,
Routledge International Studies in Money and Banking, London, 2007, pp. 178-202.

"The Lower and Upper Bounds of the Federal Open Market Committee's Long-Run Inflation Objective"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2007, 89(3), pp. 183-93.

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses Articles

"Are Virtual “Currencies” Likely to Succeed?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 8.

"Does the Economy Need More Spending Now?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 24.

"Why is Output Growth So Slow?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 4.

"Is the FOMC's Unemployment Rate Threshold a Good Idea?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 1.

"The Efficacy of the FOMC’s Zero Interest Rate Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 23.

"The Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Tale from Two Decades"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 18.

"Quantitative Easing and Money Growth: Potential for Higher Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 4.

"Inflation Objective and Policy Credibility: A Potential Problem for the FOMC"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 38.

"Why Is Employment Growth So Low?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 37.

"The FOMC's Interest Rate Policy: How Long Is the Long Run?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 29.

"Tax Rates and Revenue Since the 1970s"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 24.

"The Federal Debt: What’s the Source of the Increase in Spending?"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 21.

"The Federal Debt: Too Little Revenue or Too Much Spending"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 20.

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