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May/June 2004, 
Vol. 86, No. 3
Posted 2004-05-01

Monetary Policy Actions, Macroeconomic Data Releases, and Inflation Expectations

by Kevin L. Kliesen and Frank A. Schmid

This article analyzes how announced surprises in monetary policy actions and macroeconomic data releases affect the average rate of inflation that economic agents expect to prevail over the 10-year period following the surprise. The author also addresses the effect of Federal Reserve communication and surprises in monetary policy actions on perceived inflation risk over this 10-year period. He shows that surprises in macroeconomic data releases and monetary policy actions indeed affect the expected rate of inflation. Further, there is evidence that surprises in monetary policy actions increase perceived inflation risk, whereas Federal Reserve communication reduces it.