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2002, No. 9
Posted 2002-04-02

Does a Mild Recession Imply a Weak Recovery?

Some analysts have suggested that there is a statistically reliable relationship between the severity of a recession and the strength of the subsequent recovery. Specifically, the suggestion is that severe recessions are followed by robust recoveries and that mild recessions are followed by relatively weak recoveries. Because the 2001 recession appears to have been the mildest during the post-WWII period, can we expect a below-average recovery?