Senior Economic Policy Advisor
Ph.D. Economics
University of Iowa
1993
B.S.F.S International Economics
Georgetown University, Washington DC
1988
For media inquiries, contact:
Shera Dalin
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Phone: (314) 444-3911
Senior Economic Policy Advisor
Welcome to my web page. I do empirical research in international finance, with an emphasis on issues of market efficiency. Please feel free to contact me with comments, questions, or requests for hard copies of these papers by e-mail neely@stls.frb.org, phone (314-444-8568), fax (314-444-8731), or postal mail at the address above. Please include your name, mailing address, and the title of the paper requested.
"Financial Market Reactions to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2022
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.266-96
"Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis"
with
Dario Caldara, Etienne Gagnon, and Enrique Martínez-García
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2021
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.103.425-60
"More Stories of Unconventional Monetary Policy"
with
Evan Karson
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2021
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.103.207-70
"Responses of International Central Banks to the COVID-19 Crisis"
with
William R. Emmons and Jacob Haas
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2020
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.102.339-84
"Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves, Policy Choices, and the U.S. Economy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2017
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2017.207-231
"Common Fluctuations in OECD Budget Balances"
with
David E. Rapach
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2015
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.97.109-32
"The Evolution of Federal Reserve Policy and the Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Asset Prices"
with
Brett W. Fawley
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2014
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.96.73-109
"Four Stories of Quantitative Easing"
with
Brett W. Fawley
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2013
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.95.51-88
"A Foreign Exchange Intervention in an Era of Restraint"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2011
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.93.302-324
"A Survey of Announcement Effects on Foreign Exchange Volatility and Jumps"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2011
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.93.361-385
"A Survey of Announcement Effects on Foreign Exchange Returns"
with
S. Rubun Dey
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2010
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.92.417-64
"Systemic Risk and the Financial Crisis: A Primer"
with
James Bullard and David C. Wheelock
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2009, Part 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.91.403-418
"Real Interest Rate Persistence: Evidence and Implications"
with
David E. Rapach
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2008
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.90.609-642
"The Transition to Electronic Communications Networks in the Secondary Treasury Market"
with
Bruce Mizrach
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2006
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.88.527-542
"What Are the Odds? Option-Based Forecasts of FOMC Target Changes"
with
William R. Emmons and Aeimit K. Lakdawala
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2006
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.88.543-562
"An Analysis of Recent Studies of the Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2005
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.87.685-718
"Using Implied Volatility to Measure Uncertainty About Interest Rates"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2005
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.87.407-426
"The Federal Reserve Responds to Crises: September 11th Was Not the First"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2004
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.86.27-42
"How Well Do Monetary Fundamentals Forecast Exchange Rates?"
with
Lucio Sarno
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2002
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.51-74
"Predicting Exchange Rate Volatility: Genetic Programming Versus GARCH and RiskMetrics(TM)"
with
Paul A. Weller
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2002
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.43-54
"The Practice of Central Bank Intervention: Looking Under the Hood"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2001
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.83.1-10
"Are Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves Well Correlated with Official Intervention?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2000
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.82.17-32
"An Introduction to Capital Controls"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 1999
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.81.13-30
"Technical Analysis and the Profitability of U.S. Foreign Exchange Intervention"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1998
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.80.3-18
"Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market: A Layman's Guide"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1997
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.79.23-38
"The Giant Sucking Sound: Did NAFTA Devour the Mexican Peso?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 1996
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.78.33-48
"Deflation and Real Economic Activity Under the Gold Standard"
with
Geoffrey E. Wood
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1995
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.77.27-37
"Realignments of Target Zone Exchange Rate Systems: What Do We Know?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1994
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.76.23-34
"Why Have a Strategic Petroleum Reserve?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2024, No. 5
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2024.5
"Modeling Professional Recession Forecasts"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2023, No. 21
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2023.21
"The FDIC Studies “Options for Deposit Insurance Reform”"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2023, No. 14
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2023.14
"The Rise and Fall of M2"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2023, No. 11
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2023.11
"A Shutoff of Russian Natural Gas"
with
Jason Dunn
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2022, No. 29
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.29
"The Russian Invasion, Oil and Gasoline Prices, and Recession"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2022, No. 10
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2022.10
"Overshooting the Inflation Target"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2021, No. 24
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2021.24
"International Inflation Trends"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2021, No. 9
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2021.9
"Federal Reserve System International Facilities"
with
Bruce Mizrach
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2020, No. 29
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.29
"Central Bank Responses to COVID-19"
with
Jacob Haas
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2020, No. 23
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.23
"Supporting Small Borrowers: ABS Markets and the TALF"
with
Bruce Mizrach
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2020, No. 20
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.20
"Fed Intervention in the To-Be-Announced Market for Mortgage-Backed Securities"
with
Bruce Mizrach
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2020, No. 19
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.19
"Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Supports Main Street"
with
Bruce Mizrach
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2020, No. 17
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.17
"The Stock Market's Wild Ride"
with
Bruce Mizrach
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2020, No. 15
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.15
"Negative U.S. Interest Rates?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2020, No. 4
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.4
"The Asset Holdings of the Bank of Japan"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2019, No. 17
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2019.17
"What to Expect from Quantitative Tightening"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2019, No. 8
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2019.8
"Why Are U.S. Bond Yields So High?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2018, No. 18
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2018.18
"The People’s Bank of China Boosts the Yuan"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2017, No. 3
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2017.3
"Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves and the U.S. Economy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2016, No. 9
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2016.9
"Financial Engineering Versus Cancer"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2015, No. 18
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2015.18
"How Much Do Oil Prices Affect Inflation?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2015, No. 10
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2015.10
"Comparing International Bond Yields"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 19
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2014.19
"Lessons from the Taper Tantrum"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 2
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2014.2
"Would It Help To Eliminate Interest on Reserves?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 8
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.8
"Political Pressure on the Bank of Japan: Interference or Accountability?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 7
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.7
"The Mysterious Greek Yield Curve"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2012, No. 6
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2012.6
"The Great Foreign Exchange Intervention of 2011"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 23
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.23
"Fiscal Policy and Expected Inflation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 8
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.8
"The Difference Between Currency Manipulation and Monetary Policy"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 5
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.5
"U.S. Historical Experience with Deflation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 30
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.30
"The Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchases on TIPS Inflation Expectations"
with
Massimo Guidolin
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 26
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.26
"“How Central Should the Central Bank Be?” A Comment"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 10
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.10
"Okun’s Law: Output and Unemployment"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 4
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.4
"Markets Worry More about Sovereign Debt"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2009, No. 8
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2009.8
"The Sovereign Wealth Funds of Nations"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2008, No. 11
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2008.11
"One Dollar = One Loonie"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 26
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.26
"China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Drop in the Bucket"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 2
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.2
"The Puzzling Convergence in Foreign Exchange Volatility"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 16
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2006.16
"Unwinding the Current Account Deficit"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 11
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2005.11
"Will Oil Prices Choke Growth?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 16
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2004.16
"Global Factors in Budget Deficits"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 26
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2003.26
"Bond Market Mania"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 23
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2003.23
"How Expensive Are Stocks?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2002, No. 13
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2002.13
"Systemic Financial Risks, Macroprudential Tools and Monetary Policy"
with
Jason Dunn
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist,
Third
Quarter 2023
"Interest Rate Risk, Bank Runs and Silicon Valley Bank"
with
Michelle Clark Neely
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist,
Second
Quarter 2023
"How Do Economists Think about the Environment and Climate Change?"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist,
Fourth
Quarter 2022
"Why Price Controls Should Stay in the History Books"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist,
First
Quarter 2022
"Why Do Gasoline Prices React to Things That Have Not Happened?"
with
William R. Emmons
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist,
Third
Quarter 2007, Vol. 15, No. 3
"Asian Nations Driving World Oil Prices"
with
Justin P. Hauke
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist,
Second
Quarter 2007, Vol. 15, No. 2
"The Federal Reserve's Response to the Sept. 11 Attacks"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist,
First
Quarter 2002, Vol. 10, No. 1
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