Forthcoming Publications

"Reconsidering the Fed's Inflation Forecasting Advantage"
with  Amy Guisinger and Michael W. McCracken
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking

"Age and Gender Differentials in Unemployment and Hysteresis"
with  Amy Guisinger and  Laura E. Jackson
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics

Journal Publications

"A Time-Varying Threshold STAR Model with Applications"
with  Michael J. Dueker,  Laura E. Jackson, and  Martin Sola
Oxford Open Economics, 2023, Vol. 2, pp. 1-12
Working Paper
replication files
https://doi.org/10.1093/ooec/odac012

"Forecasting Low Frequency Macroeconomic Events with High Frequency Data"
with  Ana B. Galvão
Journal of Applied Econometrics, November/December 2022, Vol. 37, No. 7, pp. 1314-1333
Working Paper
Online Appendix
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2931

"FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications"
with  Kathryn O. Bokun,  Laura E. Jackson, and Kevin L. Kliesen
International Journal of Forecasting, January-March 2023, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 279-297
Working Paper

"Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements"
with  Amy Guisinger and  Daniel Soques
Econometrics and Statistics, January 2024, Vol. 29, pp. 132-149
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosta.2021.08.004

"Contagious Switching"
with  Jeremy M. Piger and  Daniel Soques
Journal of Applied Econometrics, March 2022, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 415-432
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2874

"Business Cycles Across Space and Time"
with  Neville Francis and  Daniel Soques
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, June 2022, Vol. 54, No. 4, pp. 921-952
Working Paper

"Binary Conditional Forecasts"
with Michael W. McCracken and  Joseph McGillicuddy
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022, Vol. 40, No. 3, pp. 1246-1258
Working Paper
Replication files
https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2021.1920960

"Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR"
with Michael W. McCracken and  Tatevik Sekhposyan
International Journal of Central Banking, December 2021, Vol. 17, No. 5, pp. 327-367
Working Paper

"International Stock Comovements with Endogenous Clusters"
with  Laura Coroneo and  Laura E. Jackson
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, July 2020, Vol. 116, 103904, pp. 1-19
Working Paper
Replication code
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2020.103904

"Asymmetry, Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts"
with  Julieta Caunedo, Riccardo DiCecio, and  Ivana Komunjer
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February, 2020, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp. 205-228
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12590

"The Nonlinear Effects of Uncertainty Shocks"
with  Laura E. Jackson and Kevin L. Kliesen
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, September 2020, Vol. 24, No. 4, 20190024, pp. online
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2019-0024

"How Has Empirical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis?"
with  Neville Francis and  Laura E. Jackson
Economic Modelling, January 2020, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 309-321
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.022

"Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy"
with  Ana B. Galvão
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, October 2018, Vol. 50, No. 7, pp. 1479-1505
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12491

"Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy"
with  Laura E. Jackson and  Daniel Soques
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, October 2018, Vol. 95, pp. 136-154
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.08.007

"An Endogenously Clustered Factor Approach to International Business Cycles"
with  Neville Francis and  Özge Savascin
Journal of Applied Econometrics, November/December 2017, Vol. 32, No. 7, pp. 1261-1276
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2577

"Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR"
with  Laura E. Jackson and  Sarah Zubairy
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, August 2018, Vol. 93, pp. 67-91
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.02.001

"A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law"
with  Amy Guisinger,  Rubén Hernández-Murillo, and  Tara M. Sinclair
Regional Science and Urban Economics, January 2018, Vol. 68, pp. 239-248
Working Paper

"Clustered Housing Cycles"
with  Rubén Hernández-Murillo and  Margarita Rubio
Regional Science and Urban Economics, September 2017, Vol. 66, No. 1, pp. 185-197
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.06.003

"Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery After Recessions"
with  Neville Francis and  Laura E. Jackson
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, June 2018, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 675-704
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12477

"Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?"
with  Andra C. Ghent and  Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Real Estate Economics, Winter 2015, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 820-854
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12110

"Forecasting National Recessions Using State Level Data"
with  Jeremy M. Piger and  Howard J. Wall
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 2015, Vol. 47, No. 5, pp. 847-866
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12228

"A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative To Long-run Restrictions With An Application To Technology Shocks"
with Riccardo DiCecio,  Neville Francis, and  Jennifer E. Roush
Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2014, Vol. 96, No. 4, pp. 638–647
Working Paper
Online appendix
https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00406

"Differences in Subprime Loan Pricing Across Races and Neighborhoods"
with  Andra C. Ghent and  Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Regional Science and Urban Economics, September 2014, Vol. 48, pp. 199-215
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2014.07.006

"Where is an Oil Shock?"
with  Kristie M. Engemann and  Howard J. Wall
Journal of Regional Science, March 2014, Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 169-185
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12071

"Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data"
with  Valerie A. Ramey and  Sarah Zubairy
American Economic Review, May 2013, Vol. 103, No. 3, pp. 129-134
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.129

"Who Benefits from Increased Government Spending: A State-Level Analysis"
with  Sarah Zubairy
Regional Science and Urban Economics, May 2013, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 445–464
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.02.005

"Discordant City Employment Cycles"
with  Jeremy M. Piger and  Howard J. Wall
Regional Science and Urban Economics, March 2013, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 367–384
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2012.09.004

"The Propagation of Regional Recessions"
with  James D. Hamilton
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 935-47
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00197

"Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing"
with  Ivana Komunjer
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 1066-80
Working Paper
Online appendix
https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00215

"The Local Effects of Monetary Policy"
with  Neville Francis and  Tatevik Sekhposyan
B E Journal of Macroeconomics, March 2012, Vol. 12, No. 2
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1690.2371

"Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence"
with  Kristie M. Engemann and Kevin L. Kliesen
Macroeconomic Dynamics, November 2011, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 498-517
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100511000216

"Whatever Happened to the Business Cycle: A Bayesian Analysis of Jobless Recoveries"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Macroeconomic Dynamics, November 2010, Vol. 14, No. 5, pp. 709-26
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100509990812

"Is Housing the Business Cycle? Evidence from U.S. Cities"
with  Andra C. Ghent
Journal of Urban Economics, May 2010, Vol. 67, No. 3, pp. 336-51
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2009.11.001

"Regional VARs and the Channels of Monetary Policy"
with  Howard J. Wall
Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 16, No. 12, pp. 1191-1194
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850701367247

"States and the Business Cycle"
with  David E. Rapach and  Howard J. Wall
Journal of Urban Economics, March 2009, Vol. 65, No. 2, pp. 181-194
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.11.001

"“Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling"
with  Michelle T. Armesto,  Rubén Hernández-Murillo, and  Jeremy M. Piger
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February 2009, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 35-55
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00186.x

"The Economic Performance of Cities: A Markov-Switching Approach"
with  Jeremy M. Piger,  Howard J. Wall, and  Christopher H. Wheeler
Journal of Urban Economics, November 2008, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 538-550
Working Paper

"A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation"
with  Jeremy M. Piger and  Howard J. Wall
Regional Science and Urban Economics, November 2008, Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 578-589
Working Paper

"Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage"
with  Leora Friedberg and  Tara M. Sinclair
B E Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, August 2006, Vol. 6, No. 1
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.2202/1538-0653.1500

"The Information Content of Regional Employment Data for Forecasting Aggregate Conditions"
with  Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Economics Letters, March 2006, Vol. 90, No. 3, pp. 335-39
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.08.023

"What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?"
with  Neville Francis and  Athena T. Theodorou
International Journal of Central Banking, December 2005, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 33-71
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.761847

"Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States"
with  Jeremy M. Piger and  Howard J. Wall
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2005, Vol. 87, No. 4, pp. 604-16
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1162/003465305775098198

"Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle"
with  Neville Francis
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, July 2005, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 305-13
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1198/073500104000000325

"Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement"
with  Garey Ramey
Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2004, Vol. 51, No. 8, pp. 1577-1598
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.01.004