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Michael T. Owyang

Assistant Vice President

Education

Ph.D. Economics
University of California, San Diego
2000

M.A. Economics
University of California, San Diego
1996

B.A. Economics
University of California, Berkeley
1992

B.S. Mechanical Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
1992

Contact Info

Phone: (314) 444-8558
Fax: (314) 444-8731

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442

For media inquiries, contact:
Karen Mracek
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Phone: (314) 444-3911




Forthcoming Publications

"Asymmetry and Federal Reserve Forecasts"
with Julieta Caunedo, Riccardo DiCecio, and Ivana Komunjer
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking

"How Has Emprical Monetary Policy Analysis Changed After the Financial Crisis?"
with Neville Francis and Laura E. Jackson
Economic Modelling


Journal Publications

"Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy"
with Ana B. Galvão
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, October 2018, Vol. 50, No. 7, pp. 1479-1505
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12491

"Nonlinearities, Smoothing and Countercyclical Monetary Policy"
with Laura E. Jackson and Daniel Soques
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, October 2018, Vol. 95, pp. 136-154
Working Paper

"An Endogenously Clustered Factor Approach to International Business Cycles"
with Neville Francis and Özge Savascin
Journal of Applied Econometrics, November/December 2017, Vol. 32, No. 7, pp. 1261-1276
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2577

"Debt and Stabilization Policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR"
with Laura E. Jackson and Sarah Zubairy
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, August 2018, Vol. 93, pp. 67-91
Working Paper

"A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law"
with Amy Guisinger, Rubén Hernández-Murillo, and Tara M. Sinclair
Regional Science and Urban Economics, January 2018, Vol. 68, pp. 239-248
Working Paper

"Clustered Housing Cycles"
with Rubén Hernández-Murillo and Margarita Rubio
Regional Science and Urban Economics, September 2017, Vol. 66, No. 1, pp. 185-197
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2017.06.003

"Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery After Recessions"
with Neville Francis and Laura E. Jackson
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, June 2018, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 675-704
Working Paper

"Did Affordable Housing Legislation Contribute to the Subprime Securities Boom?"
with Andra C. Ghent and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Real Estate Economics, Winter 2015, Vol. 43, No. 4, pp. 820-854
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12110

"Forecasting National Recessions Using State Level Data"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, August 2015, Vol. 47, No. 5, pp. 847-866
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12228

"A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative To Long-run Restrictions With An Application To Technology Shocks"
with Riccardo DiCecio, Neville Francis, and Jennifer E. Roush
Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2014, Vol. 96, No. 4, pp. 638–647
Working Paper
Online appendix
https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00406

"Differences in Subprime Loan Pricing Across Races and Neighborhoods"
with Andra C. Ghent and Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Regional Science and Urban Economics, September 2014, Vol. 48, pp. 199-215
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2014.07.006

"Where is an Oil Shock?"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Howard J. Wall
Journal of Regional Science, March 2014, Vol. 54, No. 2, pp. 169-185
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12071

"Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data"
with Valerie A. Ramey and Sarah Zubairy
American Economic Review, May 2013, Vol. 103, No. 3, pp. 129-134
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.3.129

"Who Benefits from Increased Government Spending: A State-Level Analysis"
with Sarah Zubairy
Regional Science and Urban Economics, May 2013, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 445–464
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.02.005

"Discordant City Employment Cycles"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Regional Science and Urban Economics, March 2013, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 367–384
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2012.09.004

"The Propagation of Regional Recessions"
with James D. Hamilton
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 935-47
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00197

"Multivariate Forecast Evaluation and Rationality Testing"
with Ivana Komunjer
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2012, Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 1066-80
Working Paper
Online appendix
https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00215

"The Local Effects of Monetary Policy"
with Neville Francis and Tatevik Sekhposyan
B E Journal of Macroeconomics, March 2012, Vol. 12, No. 2
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1515/1935-1690.2371

"Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence"
with Kristie M. Engemann and Kevin L. Kliesen
Macroeconomic Dynamics, November 2011, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 498-517
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100511000216

"Whatever Happened to the Business Cycle: A Bayesian Analysis of Jobless Recoveries"
with Kristie M. Engemann
Macroeconomic Dynamics, November 2010, Vol. 14, No. 5, pp. 709-26
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100509990812

"Is Housing the Business Cycle? Evidence from U.S. Cities"
with Andra C. Ghent
Journal of Urban Economics, May 2010, Vol. 67, No. 3, pp. 336-51
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2009.11.001

"Regional VARs and the Channels of Monetary Policy"
with Howard J. Wall
Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 16, No. 12, pp. 1191-1194
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850701367247

"States and the Business Cycle"
with David E. Rapach and Howard J. Wall
Journal of Urban Economics, March 2009, Vol. 65, No. 2, pp. 181-194
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.11.001

"“Measuring the Information Content of the Beige Book: A Mixed Data Sampling"
with Michelle T. Armesto, Rubén Hernández-Murillo, and Jeremy M. Piger
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February 2009, Vol. 41, No. 1, pp. 35-55
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00186.x

"The Economic Performance of Cities: A Markov-Switching Approach"
with Jeremy M. Piger, Howard J. Wall, and Christopher H. Wheeler
Journal of Urban Economics, November 2008, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 538-550
Working Paper

"A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Regional Science and Urban Economics, November 2008, Vol. 38, No. 6, pp. 578-589
Working Paper

"Searching For Better Prospects: Endogenizing Falling Job Tenure and Private Pension Coverage"
with Leora Friedberg and Tara M. Sinclair
B E Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, August 2006, Vol. 6, No. 1
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.2202/1538-0653.1500

"The Information Content of Regional Employment Data for Forecasting Aggregate Conditions"
with Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Economics Letters, March 2006, Vol. 90, No. 3, pp. 335-39
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.08.023

"What Explains the Varying Monetary Response to Technology Shocks in G-7 Countries?"
with Neville Francis and Athena T. Theodorou
International Journal of Central Banking, December 2005, Vol. 1, No. 3, pp. 33-71
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.761847

"Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States"
with Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2005, Vol. 87, No. 4, pp. 604-16
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1162/003465305775098198

"Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching VECM: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle"
with Neville Francis
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, July 2005, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 305-13
Working Paper

"Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement"
with Garey Ramey
Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2004, Vol. 51, No. 8, pp. 1577-1598
Working Paper
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.01.004


 




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