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Michael T. Owyang

Assistant Vice President

Education

Ph.D. Economics
University of California, San Diego
2000

M.A. Economics
University of California, San Diego
1996

B.A. Economics
University of California, Berkeley
1992

B.S. Mechanical Engineering
University of California, Berkeley
1992

Contact Info

Phone: (314) 444-8558
Fax: (314) 444-8731

Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442

For media inquiries, contact:
Shera Dalin
mediainquiries@stls.frb.org
Phone: (314) 444-3911

Michael T. Owyang

Assistant Vice President

Economic Data:

FRED-SD: State-Level Databases for Macroeconomic Research and Forecasting

FRED-SD is a large macroeconomic database designed for the empirical analysis of state-level. The datasets of monthly and quarterly observations are updated in real-time through the FRED database.




Review Articles

"On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts"
with  Julie Bennett
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2022
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.131-48

"Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics"
with  Julie Bennett and  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Third Quarter 2021
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.103.289-314

"Comparing Measures of Potential Output"
with  Amy Guisinger and  Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Fourth Quarter 2018
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.100.297-316

"How Do Local Labor Markets Affect Retirement?"
with  Leora Friedberg,  Wei Sun, and  Anthony Webb
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Third Quarter 2017
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2017.259-78

"Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?"
with  Neville Francis and  Daniel Soques
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2015
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.97.133-58

"A Measure of Price Pressures"
with  Laura E. Jackson and Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2015
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.97.25-52

"Okun’s Law over the Business Cycle: Was the Great Recession All That Different?"
with  Tatevik Sekhposyan
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.399-418

"Disentangling Diverse Measures: A Survey of Financial Stress Indexes"
with Kevin L. Kliesen and  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2012
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.369-398

"Where There’s a Smoking Ban, There’s Still Fire"
with  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2012
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.94.265-286

"Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation"
with  Rubén Hernández-Murillo,  Lesli S. Ott, and  Denise Whalen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2011
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.93.169-186

"Regional Aggregation in Forecasting: An Application to the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District"
with  Kristie M. Engemann and  Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2011
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.93.207-222

"Forecasting with Mixed Frequencies"
with  Michelle T. Armesto and  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2010
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.92.521-36

"Nonlinear Effects of School Quality on House Prices"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo and  Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2010
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.92.185-204

"A Primer on the Empirical Identification of Government Spending Shocks"
with  Kristie M. Engemann and  Sarah Zubairy
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2008
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.90.117-132

"Changing Trends in the Labor Force: A Survey"
with Riccardo DiCecio,  Kristie M. Engemann, and  Christopher H. Wheeler
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2008
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.90.47-62

"Editor's Introduction"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2005
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.87.429-434

"Does Consumer Sentiment Predict Regional Consumption?"
with  Thomas A. Garrett and  Rubén Hernández-Murillo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2005, Part 1
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.87.123-135

"Subjective Probabilities: Psychological Theories and Economic Applications"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo,  Massimo Guidolin, and  Makoto Shimoji
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2004
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.86.33-48

"The Use of Long-Run Restrictions for the Identification of Technology Shocks"
with  Neville Francis and  Athena T. Theodorou
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2003
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.85.53-66

"A Case Study of a Currency Crisis: The Russian Default of 1998"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2002
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.7-18

"Not Your Father's Pension Plan: The Rise of 401(k) and Other Defined Contribution Plans"
with  Leora Friedberg
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2002
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.84.23-34

"Persistence, Excess Volatility, and Volatility Clusters in Inflation"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November/December 2001
https://doi.org/10.20955/r.83.41-52


Economic Synopses Articles

"A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes"
with  Laura E. Jackson and Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2019, No. 6
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2019.6

"Measuring Potential Output"
with  Amy Guisinger and  Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2018, No. 25
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2018.25

"Taking Stock: Income Inequality and the Stock Market"
with  Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2016, No. 7
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2016.7

"Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure"
with  Laura E. Jackson and Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2015, No. 25
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2015.25

"Employment Revision Asymmetries"
with  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2014, No. 11
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2014.11

"Okun's Law in Recession and Recovery"
with  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2013, No. 23
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2013.23

"Using Brent and WTI Oil Prices to Predict Gasoline Prices"
with Kevin L. Kliesen
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2011, No. 36
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2011.36

"When Do Recessions Begin and End?"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 38
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.38

"Business Cycle Measures"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 21
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.21

"Not Your Father’s Oil Shock"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2010, No. 9
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2010.9

"What Are the Chances?"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 27
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.27

"Look Who’s Still Working Now"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2007, No. 14
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2007.14

"Barreling Down the Road to Recession?"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 22
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2006.22

"Look Who’s Working Now"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2006, No. 9
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2006.9

"Survey Says…"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 22
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2005.22

"Hard “Core” Inflation"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2005, No. 3
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2005.3

"Can a Summer Hike Cause Surprise Fall for Mortgage Rates?"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 21
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2004.21

"Your Current Job Probably Won’t Be Your Last"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2004, No. 5
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2004.5

"Financial Aid and College Choice"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 20
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2003.20

"Symmetric Inflation Risk"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2003, No. 8
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2003.8

"Subject to Revision"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2002, No. 14
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2002.14

"Putting Off Retirement: The Rise of the 401(k)"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, 2002, No. 7
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2002.7


Regional Economist Articles

"Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector"
with  Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2019, Vol. 27, No. 3

"Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP"
with  Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2018, Vol. 26, No. 4

"China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors?"
with  Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2017, Vol. 25, No. 2

"Measuring Trends in Income Inequality"
with  Hannah G. Shell
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2016, Vol. 24, No. 2

"Regional vs. Global: How Are Countries' Business Cycles Moving Together These Days?"
with  Diana A. Cooke,  M. Ayhan Kose, and  Christopher Otrok
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2015, Vol. 23, No. 2

"Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices?"
with  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2014, Vol. 22, No. 4

"Output and Unemployment: How Do They Relate Today?"
with  Tatevik Sekhposyan and  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2013, Vol. 21, No. 4

"Measuring the Effect of School Choice on Economic Outcomes"
with  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2012, Vol. 20, No. 4

"Worth Your Weight? Re-examining the Link between Obesity and Wages"
with  E. Katarina Vermann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2011, Vol. 19, No. 4

"Unconventional Oil Production: Stuck in a Rock and a Hard Place"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Third Quarter 2010, Vol. 18, No. 3

"A Winning Combination? Economic Theory Meets Sports"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2009, Vol. 17, No. 1

"Extra Credit: The Rise of Short-term Liabilities"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2008, Vol. 16, No. 2

"Splitsville: The Economics of Unilateral Divorce"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2008, Vol. 16, No. 1

"Working Hard or Hardly Working? The Evolution of Leisure in the United States"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2007, Vol. 15, No. 1

"Social Changes Lead Married Women into Labor Force"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2006, Vol. 14, No. 2

"What's in a Name? Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on Ethnic Names"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2006, Vol. 14, No. 1

"What's in a Name? Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on Ethnic Names"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2006, Vol. 14, No. 1

"So Much for That Merit Raise: The Link between Wages and Appearance"
with  Kristie M. Engemann
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2005, Vol. 13, No. 2

"Keep Your Résumé Current: The Causes Behind Declining Job Tenure"
with  Kristie M. Engemann and  Leora Friedberg
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2005, Vol. 13, No. 1

"Marriage, Motherhood and Money: How Do Women's Life Decisions Influence Their Wages?"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2003, Vol. 11, No. 2

"Monetary Policy: The Whole Country Gets the Same Treatment, but Results Vary"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, First Quarter 2003, Vol. 11, No. 1

"For Love or Money: Why Married Men Make More"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Second Quarter 2002, Vol. 10, No. 2

"Low Unemployment: Old Dogs or New Tricks?"
with  Abbigail J. Chiodo
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Regional Economist, Fourth Quarter 2001, Vol. 9, No. 4