It is a robust finding that technical trading rules applied to foreign exchange markets
have earned substantial excess returns over long periods of time. However, the approach to
risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory, and has tended to focus on the CAPM.
This paper explores the role played by structural transformation and the resulting relocation of workers from rural to urban areas in the recent housing boom in China. This development process has fostered an ongoing increase in urban housing demand, which, combined with a relatively inelastic supply due to land and entry restrictions, has raised housing and land prices.
This article develops time-series models to represent three alternative, potential monetary policy regimes as monetary policy returns to normal. The first regime is a return to the high and volatile inflation rate of the 1970s.
A model is constructed in which consumers and banks have incentives to fake the quality of collateral. Conventional monetary easing can exacerbate these problems, in that the mispresentation of collateral becomes
more profitable, thus increasing haircuts and interest rate differentials.
This paper (i) estimates the local effects of government stimulus spending on labor market
outcomes and (ii) shows how these effects can be obtained from a firm's optimal policy in the
presence of costs to hiring workers.
This paper provides a theory to explain the paradoxical features of the great housing
boom in China —the persistently faster-than-GDP housing price growth, exceptionally
high capital returns, and excessive vacancy rates.
The 1950s are often pointed to as a decade in which the Federal Reserve operated a particularly successful monetary policy. The present paper examines the evolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy from the mid-1930s through the 1950s in an effort to understand better the apparent success of policy in the 1950s.
A model of money, credit, and banking is constructed in which the differential pledgeability of collateral and the scarcity of collateralizable wealth lead to a term premium — an upward-sloping nominal yield curve.