We develop a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer (EE) transitions for inflation. We find that EE dynamics played an important role in shaping the differential inflation dynamics observed during the Great Recession and COVID-19 recoveries, with the former exhibiting subdued EE transitions and inflation despite both episodes sharing similar unemployment dynamics. The optimal monetary policy prescribes a strong positive response to EE fluctuations, implying that central banks should distinguish between recovery episodes with similar unemployment but different EE dynamics.
https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2022.016
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