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Local Fiscal Multipliers, Negative Spillovers and the Macroeconomy

This paper analyzes the impact of within-state military spending and national military spending on a state''s employment. I estimate that, while within-state spending increases that state''s employment (i.e., a positive local effect), an increase in national military spending ceteris paribus decreases employment in the state (i.e., a negative spillover effect). The combined local and spillover effects imply an aggregate employment effect that is close to zero. The estimates are consistent with a resource reallocation explanation: Persons take jobs in or move to a state with increased military spending, but they leave when increased out-of-state military spending creates opportunities elsewhere. I find support for this interpretation based on estimates of population changes by demographic groups in response to spending shocks.

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DOI: 10.20955/wp.2015.026


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