Search Results

Inventory Investment in the Recent Recession and Recovery - Review

The behavior of inventory investment since the beginning of the 1973-75 recession has been a dominant concern of economic analysts. Initially, this concern was motivated by a recognition that a relationship between inventory investment and changes in total output and employment has been one of the most pronounced regularities of the business cycle. This relationship appears to be such a dominant factor in previous postwar recessions that they have been referred to as “inventory recessions.”

research.stlouisfed.org/.../1977/04/01/inventory-investment-in-the-recent-recession-and-recover

Does the Stage of the Business Cycle Affect the Inflation Rate? - Review

With the U.S. economy well into its fourth year of expansion and approaching high rates of resource employment, renewed fears of accelerating inflation have surfaced. One source of such concern is the widely held view that the rate of inflation is a cyclical phenomenon, falling during recessions and rising as the economy approaches a cyclical peak. According to this explanation, inflation is influenced by the degree of slack in markets for goods, services, and resources.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../09/01/does-the-stage-of-the-business-cycle-affect-the-inflation-rate

Energy Prices and Capital Formation: 1972-1977 - Review

Two of the most noteworthy developments in the U.S. economy during this decade have been the sharp rise in energy prices in 1973-74 and the sluggish pace of business investment during the brisk economic expansion which followed the 1974-75 recession. The purpose of this article is to delineate the connection between these two developments.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../review/1979/05/01/energy-prices-and-capital-formation-1972-1977

The Effects of the New Energy Regime on Economic Capacity, Production, and Prices - Review

The quadrupling of OPEC oil prices in late 1973 and early 1974 had a profound and permanent impact on the U.S. economy. The initial impact was an explosion in the prices of most goods and services, as well as the longest and most severe decline in national output since the 1930s. The recession trough occurred over two years ago and the rate of inflation has fallen substantially since 1974. While the inflation rate remains quite high by historical standards, the primary focus of concern, at least in official circles, seems to have shifted toward the persistence of an unacceptably high unemployment rate and the associated loss of national output.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../

The Recent Credit Crunch: The Neglected Dimensions - Review

Kevin L. Kliesen and John A. Tatom take a historical view of credit crunches and their relevance to the nation’s cyclical performance. They explain the origins of the credit crunch concept and point to the consistent misapplication of the concept to cyclical credit market developments.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../review/1992/09/01/the-recent-credit-crunch-the-neglected-dimensions

Was the 1982 Velocity Decline Unusual? - Review

John A. Tatom analyzes recent movements in velocity. Velocity, the ratio of the nation’s GNP to its money stock, fell sharply in 1982. Since velocity is an indicator of the public’s demand for money, many analysts have interpreted the decline as an unanticipated shift in the public’s desired holdings of transaction balances.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../publications/review/1983/08/01/was-the-1982-velocity-decline-unusual/

Here’s Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Fundamentally Strong - Economic Synopses

U.S. manufacturing’s slump is largely due to the poor performance of the overall economy.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../2018/03/02/heres-why-u-s-manufacturing-is-fundamentally-strong/

U.S. Manufacturing and the Importance of International Trade: It’s Not What You Think - Review

The public often gauges the strength of the U.S. economy by the performance of the manufacturing sector, especially by changes in manufacturing employment. When such employment declines, as has been the trend for many years, it is often assumed to be evidence of the slow death of U.S. manufacturing and an associated rise in imports.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../

Interest Rate Variability: Its Link to the Variability of Monetary Growth and Economic Performance - Review

John A. Tatom explains the links between the variability of money growth and the variability of interest rates and between the latter and economic performance. Tatom describes the theoretical channels through which an increase in risk affects the economy, including how it reduces both the demand for and the supply of current goods and services.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../

Two Views of the Effects of Government Budget Deficits in the 1980s - Review

John A. Tatom explains the predicted effects of deficits based on the conventional analysis and a competing theoretical approach. The conventional analysis, according to Tatom, emphasizes that deficit-increasing fiscal policies initially result in increased demand for goods and services and a reduced supply of national saving.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../two-views-of-the-effects-of-government-budget-deficits-in-the-1980s/