Michael T. Belongia analyzes this question, comparing forecasts of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and several private-sector groups. He first tests for bias in forecasts of real GNP growth, inflation, and unemployment and finds each group’s forecasts to be unbiased. He then tests for forecast accuracy and finds little grounds for judging one government agency’s forecast superior to the other’s. The author also finds little to distinguish strongly between the accuracy of private- and public-sector forecasts. Overall, “rosy scenario” and other epithets appear to be groundless rhetoric.