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Our most academic publication offers research and surveys on monetary policy, national and international developments, banking, and more. The content is written for an economically informed readership—from the undergraduate student to the PhD.


Vol. 89, No. 3 (Posted 2007-05-01)

Granger Causality and Equilibrium Business Cycle Theory

by Yi Wen

Postwar U.S. data show that consumption growth “Granger-causes” output and investment growth, which is puzzling if technology is the driving force of the business cycle. The author asks whether general equilibrium models with information frictions and non-technology shocks can rationalize the observed causal relationships. His conclusion is they cannot.

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