The evidence presented in this article suggests that sizable and sustained reductions in short-run money growth below its trend rate portend declines in the growth of real GNP. Of the 14 recessions in the four countries examined, only one (the 1974-75 recession in the United Kingdom) was not preceded by a substantial decline in short-run money growth. Moreover, in only one instance (1975:Q3-1976:Q4 in West Germany) did short-run money growth fall substantially below trend without a recession following. In that instance, however, West German real GNP growth fell from about 10 percent to zero, a result consistent with the theoretical discussion of the paper. Thus, the evidence indicates that policymakers should be concerned with short-run fluctuations in the growth of the money supply relative to its trend.