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April 1981

How Controllable is Money Growth

by Anatol Balbach

It is becoming increasingly popular to assert that money growth cannot be controlled and, therefore, that monetary policy should stop targeting monetary growth and try to control other variables that may affect economic activity and the rate of inflation. Many argue that, although excessive long-run monetary growth is clearly the dominant cause of inflation, attempts to control it are so weak and uncertain that they create more problems than benefits. Even casual observation seems to support these arguments: in the United States, the Federal Reserve System has announced monetary growth targets since 1973 but has achieved only questionable success in reaching them; in many foreign countries, such as the United Kingdom and Germany, targets were established but were either persistently or occasionally violated; in Switzerland, monetary control has been successful but is viewed as an aberration due to the country’s small size and other uniquely favorable conditions.