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March/April 2006, 
Vol. 88, No. 2
Posted 2006-03-01

Using Cyclical Regimes of Output Growth to Predict Jobless Recoveries

by Michael J. Dueker

Gaps between output and employment growth are often attributed to transitional phases as the economy adjusts to shifts in productivity. But cyclical factors can also drive a wedge between output and employment growth. This article shows that one measure of cyclical dynamics (expected output loss from a recession) helps predict the gap between output and employment growth in the coming four quarters and implies that a weaker-than-expected rebound can partially mute employment growth relative to output growth.