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2019 / No. 11
Posted 2019-04-19

Factors Behind the Decline in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest

by Sungki Hong and Hannah G. Shell

Longer lives and fewer babies have contributed to a lower natural rate of interest.

2019 / No. 10
Posted 2019-04-15

Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2

by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.

2019 / No. 9
Posted 2019-04-12

Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1

by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.

2019 / No. 8
Posted 2019-04-05

What to Expect from Quantitative Tightening

by Christopher J. Neely

Quantitative tightening is unlikely to noticeably impede economic activity.

2019 / No. 7
Posted 2019-03-08

China’s Innovation and Global Technology Diffusion

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Makenzie Peake

China's technologies are diffusing rapidly throughout the world.

2019 / No. 6
Posted 2019-03-01

A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes

by Laura E. Jackson, Kevin L. Kliesen, and Michael T. Owyang

Economic uncertainty is highest in recent decades.

2019 / No. 5
Posted 2019-02-08

A Closer Look at China’s Supposed Misappropriation of U.S. Intellectual Property

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Makenzie Peake

China has significantly increased its payments for the use of U.S. intellectual property.

2019 / No. 4
Posted 2019-02-01

The Global Decline of the Natural Rate of Interest and Implications for Monetary Policy

by Sungki Hong and Hannah G. Shell

A low natural rate of interest in normal times may call for unconventional policy in recessions. 

2019 / No. 3
Posted 2019-01-15

Is the Fed Following a “Modernized” Version of the Taylor Rule? Part 2

by Kevin L. Kliesen

The past period’s policy rate is extraordinarily important for setting the current period’s policy rate in the modernized Taylor rule.

2019 / No. 2
Posted 2019-01-15

Is the Fed Following a “Modernized” Version of the Taylor Rule? Part 1

by Kevin L. Kliesen

The Taylor rule indicates the current federal funds target rate should be higher.

2019 / No. 1
Posted 2019-01-11

Whither the Price of Bitcoin?

by David Andolfatto and Andrew Spewak

The total value of Bitcoin has declined as a share of all cryptocurrencies.


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