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2021 / No. 12
Posted 2021-06-03

Putting Recent Inflation in Historical Context

by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

Prices for many items were depressed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we see the effect in current inflation reports.

2021 / No. 11
Posted 2021-05-19

Two Percent Inflation Over the Next Year: Should You Take the Over or the Under?

by Kevin L. Kliesen

According to the St. Louis Fed’s price pressures measure, there’s a 61 percent probability that inflation will average more than 2.5 percent over the next 12 months.

2021 / No. 10
Posted 2021-05-18

Classifying Worker Types in the U.S. Labor Market

by Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio, and David Wiczer

Why some worker types have difficulty finding stable jobs can’t easily be explained by demographic characteristics.

2021 / No. 9
Posted 2021-05-14

International Inflation Trends

by Christopher J. Neely

Expected inflation rates have risen in many countries after fiscal and monetary stimulus helped economies recover from the COVID-19 lockdown.

2021 / No. 8
Posted 2021-05-07

Childhood Income Volatility

by Hannah Rubinton and Maggie Isaacson

Rising volatility in family income suggests that government efforts such as the monthly payment of the child tax credit may be appropriate.

2021 / No. 7
Posted 2021-04-26

Information and Communications Technology Spending and City Size

by Hannah Rubinton and Maggie Isaacson

Firms in big cities are spending more on information and communications technology than firms in small cities, a likely cause of the growing economic divide between big and small U.S. cities.

2021 / No. 6
Posted 2021-04-14

Measuring Market-Based Inflation Expectations

by Kevin L. Kliesen

TIPS offer a hedge against inflation risks, so demand for these securities may be up because investors are worried about longer-run inflation.

2021 / No. 5
Posted 2021-04-05

Geographic Patterns of Innovation Across U.S. States: 1980-2010

by Jesse LaBelle and Ana Maria Santacreu

The distribution of innovation in the United States has become more concentrated and has shifted to the West.

2021 / No. 4
Posted 2021-02-26

Business Dynamism and City Size

by Hannah Rubinton

Business dynamism has been decreasing since the 1980s, but less so for larger cities.

2021 / No. 3
Posted 2021-02-24

Measuring Household Distress and Potential Policy Impacts

by Jeffrey P. Cohen, Cletus C. Coughlin, William R. Emmons, Jacob Haas, and Lowell R. Ricketts

Government policies such as income support and debt relief may help explain low levels of household financial distress, but outcomes are uncertain once assistance ends.

2021 / No. 2
Posted 2021-02-12

Personal Saving During the COVID-19 Recession

by Guillaume Vandenbroucke

More income from government transfers and less consumer spending fueled the recent spike in saving.

2021 / No. 1
Posted 2021-01-29

A Simple Evaluation of Two Decades of Inflation Targeting: Lessons for the New Monetary Policy Strategy

by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

New Fed guidance could deliver more inflation outcomes above the current inflation target.