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2019 / No. 24
Posted 2019-10-18

Decomposing the Low PCE Inflation Rate

by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

The current low PCE inflation rate can largely be attributed to energy, health care, and housing.

2019 / No. 23
Posted 2019-10-04

Do Firms Switch Their Legal Form of Organization When Taxes Change?

by Shi Qi and Don Schlagenhauf

Tax-law changes can cause firms to change their organizational structure.

2019 / No. 22
Posted 2019-08-30

Tax Cuts, Venture Capital, and Long-Term Growth

by Juan M. Sánchez

The rise in venture capital investment suggests the 2017 tax cuts will increase economic growth through more-profitable investment in innovation.

2019 / No. 21
Posted 2019-08-20

Are U.S. Housing Markets Hot, Hot, Hot?

by Matthew Famiglietti, Carlos Garriga, and Aaron Hedlund

Some areas of the U.S. housing market are hotter now than during the 2002-06 boom.

2019 / No. 20
Posted 2019-08-07

Tail Risk: Part 3, The Return on Safe and Liquid Assets

by Julian Kozlowski

The liquidity of government bonds has been even more valuable since the Great Recession.

2019 / No. 19
Posted 2019-08-06

Tail Risk: Part 2, The Missing Recovery After the Great Recession

by Julian Kozlowski

What is driving the missing economic recovery since the Great Recession?

2019 / No. 18
Posted 2019-08-05

Tail Risk: Part 1, The Persistent Effects of the Great Recession

by Julian Kozlowski

Financial panic is a new reality that may be affecting the aggregate economy.

2019 / No. 17
Posted 2019-07-15

The Asset Holdings of the Bank of Japan

by Christopher J. Neely

The Bank of Japan purchases large amounts of Japanese government bonds, enabling it to control long-term bond yields.

2019 / No. 16
Posted 2019-07-05

Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession

by Bill Dupor

The auto sector continues to play an important role in understanding recessions.

2019 / No. 15
Posted 2019-06-21

Can Countercyclical Capital Buffers Help Prevent a Financial Crisis?

by Miguel Faria e Castro

Higher bank capital requirements may buffer the effects of crises.

2019 / No. 14
Posted 2019-05-31

Why Is the St. Louis Metro Area Population Growing So Slowly?

by Charles S. Gascon

According to an economic model, St. Louis should have grown 11% since 2000 but grew 4.7%.

2019 / No. 13
Posted 2019-05-17

Historical U.S. Trade Deficits

by Brian Reinbold and Yi Wen

U.S. trade deficits appear to follow phases of industrialization.

2019 / No. 12
Posted 2019-05-08

The Role of Credit in the Exit of Firms Across U.S. Industries During the Great Recession

by Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici

During the Great Recession, firms in industries with higher shares of delinquent firms were more likely to go out of business.

2019 / No. 11
Posted 2019-04-19

Factors Behind the Decline in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest

by Sungki Hong and Hannah G. Shell

Longer lives and fewer babies have contributed to a lower natural rate of interest.

2019 / No. 10
Posted 2019-04-15

Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 2

by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

Expectations of housing market conditions should be considered when forecasting recessions.

2019 / No. 9
Posted 2019-04-12

Predicting the Yield Curve Inversions that Predict Recessions: Part 1

by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.

2019 / No. 8
Posted 2019-04-05

What to Expect from Quantitative Tightening

by Christopher J. Neely

Quantitative tightening is unlikely to noticeably impede economic activity.

2019 / No. 7
Posted 2019-03-08

China’s Innovation and Global Technology Diffusion

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Makenzie Peake

China's technologies are diffusing rapidly throughout the world.

2019 / No. 6
Posted 2019-03-01

A Bad Moon Rising? Uncertainty Shocks and Economic Outcomes

by Laura E. Jackson, Kevin L. Kliesen, and Michael T. Owyang

Economic uncertainty is highest in recent decades.

2019 / No. 5
Posted 2019-02-08

A Closer Look at China’s Supposed Misappropriation of U.S. Intellectual Property

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Makenzie Peake

China has significantly increased its payments for the use of U.S. intellectual property.

2019 / No. 4
Posted 2019-02-01

The Global Decline of the Natural Rate of Interest and Implications for Monetary Policy

by Sungki Hong and Hannah G. Shell

A low natural rate of interest in normal times may call for unconventional policy in recessions.

2019 / No. 2
Posted 2019-01-15

Is the Fed Following a “Modernized” Version of the Taylor Rule? Part 1

by Kevin L. Kliesen

The Taylor rule indicates the current federal funds target rate should be higher.

2019 / No. 3
Posted 2019-01-15

Is the Fed Following a “Modernized” Version of the Taylor Rule? Part 2

by Kevin L. Kliesen

The past period’s policy rate is extraordinarily important for setting the current period’s policy rate in the modernized Taylor rule.

2019 / No. 1
Posted 2019-01-11

Whither the Price of Bitcoin?

by David Andolfatto and Andrew Spewak

The total value of Bitcoin has declined as a share of all cryptocurrencies.