Long-term unemployment increased disproportionately for older women after the Great Recession.
Assessing inflation’s likely path matters to policymakers and those in financial markets.
Evidence suggests that the exchange rate appreciation is not to blame for China’s slowdown.
Does India have a stagnant manufacturing sector or an exceptionally productive services sector?
Reduced credit creation, and not increased credit destruction, has been the key driver of the recent evolution of U.S. household debt.
Sound macroeconomic policies are key to preventing solvency crises in a currency union.
Texas accounted for 37 percent of the decline in the U.S. job market in March.
Returns on government debt bear little resemblance to returns on productive capital.
If financial engineering can distribute the pecuniary risk of medical research, then it can play a role in curing cancer.
The labor force participation rates for prime-working-age men have been falling across countries.
Changes in the aggregate price level can be traced back to changes in the underlying components.
The business cycle is more highly synchronized between countries that trade more differentiated intermediate products with each other.
The long-run trend of average wages has consistently failed to keep pace with overall economic growth.
The negative relationship between unemployment and earnings growth seems to hold across states.
The natural rate is viewed in some circles as a useful concept for the FOMC in setting the federal funds rate.
Health problems and disability claims have declined in the fastest-growing occupations.
It is puzzling why large monthly or quarterly oil price changes predict very small changes in the CPI but daily oil prices predict large changes in breakeven inflation.
Inflation expectations formed in the mid-2000s weren’t very accurate—in large part because of the shocks from the recession and financial crisis.
A standard decomposition suggests the role of oil supply (understood as the current physical availability of crude) has been small.
A delinquency rate of 15 percent for all student loan borrowers implies a delinquency rate of 27.3 percent for borrowers with loans in repayment.
Reduced dynamism in the labor market is consistent not only with more stable, longer-lived jobs but also longer joblessness and less job switching.
GDP per hour (rather than GDP per capita) better measures labor productivity.
Large firms have been creating
a significantly higher fraction of jobs since the Great Recession.
As expected, falling crude oil prices lead to falling gasoline prices and lower inflation.
Countries with weaker economic fundamentals experienced higher currency volatility and capital flows.
Fear of demand-driven deflation calls for expansionary economic policies.