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2020 / No. 43
Posted 2020-12-22

COVID-19: Scarring Body and Mind

by Julian Kozlowski

“Belief scarring” from the COVID-19 pandemic may generate prolonged effects on the economy—with economic costs greater than the drop in GDP in 2020.

2020 / No. 42
Posted 2020-10-08

Renewable Sources of Electricity: Where Excess Capacity Is Built-In

by Diego Mendez-Carbajo

As renewable sources of electricity have expanded, production capacity utilization has gradually decreased.

2020 / No. 41
Posted 2020-09-16

The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Deficit During COVID-19: The Role of Essential Medical Goods

by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu

The pandemic-induced increase in trade of essential medical goods accounted for 41.3 percent of the increase in the U.S. trade deficit from January to June.

2020 / No. 40
Posted 2020-09-10

The Decline of Employment During COVID-19: The Role of Contact-Intensive Industries

by Matthew Famiglietti, Fernando Leibovici, and Ana Maria Santacreu

Non-essential contact-intensive industries have experienced the largest job losses since the onset of COVID-19.

2020 / No. 39
Posted 2020-08-12

Comparing the COVID-19 Recession with the Great Depression

by David C. Wheelock

The 2020 contraction looks to be deep but short.

2020 / No. 38
Posted 2020-08-07

How Recessions Have Affected Household Net Worth, 1990-2017: Uneven Experiences by Wealth Quantile

by Diego Mendez-Carbajo

The asset composition of wealth can explain the uneven impact of recessions on household net worth.

2020 / No. 37
Posted 2020-07-14

Which Earnings Groups Have Been Most Affected by the COVID-19 Crisis?

by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci

When the pandemic caused unemployment to skyrocket, the lowest earners were the hardest hit.

2020 / No. 36
Posted 2020-06-15

Geographic Dispersion in COVID-19 Death Rates across the United States

by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Geographic dispersion in the share of African Americans likely accounts for the dispersion of COVID-19-related deaths.

2020 / No. 35
Posted 2020-06-12

International Trade Policy During COVID-19

by Fernando Leibovici and Ana Maria Santacreu

Recent trade policy implemented to avoid shortages of essential medical equipment amid COVID-19 has been related to the country’s trade imbalances in these goods.

2020 / No. 34
Posted 2020-05-28

Immigration and International Trade in U.S. Manufactured Goods

by Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici

States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.

2020 / No. 33
Posted 2020-05-27

Unemployment Insurance and Vulnerable Households During the COVID-19 Pandemic

by Serdar Birinci

Can workers endure job loss without an increase in unemployment insurance benefits?

2020 / No. 32
Posted 2020-05-26

Bad Medicine? Federal Debt and Deficits after COVID-19

by Kevin L. Kliesen

The government’s response to stem the pandemic has resulted in an erosion in public finances.

2020 / No. 31
Posted 2020-05-20

Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a Supply or a Demand Shock?

by Pedro Brinca, Joao B. Duarte, and Miguel Faria e Castro

Labor supply shocks likely account for most of the fall in hours worked.

2020 / No. 30
Posted 2020-05-18

What Can We Learn from the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918-19 for COVID-19?

by David C. Wheelock

As the Spanish flu became more widespread and its dangers apparent, many cities sought to contain the virus by imposing restrictions on social and economic interactions.

2020 / No. 29
Posted 2020-05-08

Federal Reserve System International Facilities

by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

Fed lending to foreign central banks for them to provide emergency lending aids the U.S. economy by stabilizing international financial markets.

2020 / No. 28
Posted 2020-05-07

COVID-19 Cases and Deaths: Comparing the Eighth Federal Reserve District and the U.S.

by B. Ravikumar and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

The St. Louis Fed’s District has a lower rate of COVID-19-related deaths than the overall U.S. rate.

2020 / No. 27
Posted 2020-05-06

Geographic Disparity in the U.S. Population

by Ryan Mather and B. Ravikumar

About half the U.S. population resides on less than 200,000 square miles; the rest is spread over more than 3 million square miles.

2020 / No. 26
Posted 2020-04-28

The Value of $600 Across States Hit Hardest by COVID-19

by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

The CARES act provides an extra $600 per week in unemployment benefits, but the purchasing power of those dollars varies across states, raising the question of whether the equal distribution of $600 across states is an equitable distribution.

2020 / No. 25
Posted 2020-04-23

The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part II

by Makenzie Peake, B. Ravikumar, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

In the U.S., the weeks lost due to inaction during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic helped spread the virus.

2020 / No. 24
Posted 2020-04-22

The Lost Weeks of COVID-19 Testing in the United States: Part I

by Makenzie Peake, B. Ravikumar, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke

The weeks lost due to inaction in the U.S. during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in rationing of tests and a large number of confirmed cases.

2020 / No. 23
Posted 2020-04-21

Central Bank Responses to COVID-19

by Jacob Haas and Christopher J. Neely

The scope and speed of the international central bank policy response to COVID-19 has met or often exceeded that of the 2007-2009 crisis.

2020 / No. 22
Posted 2020-04-18

Will Workers Want To Be Laid Off?

by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

The short-term income benefits from expanded unemployment insurance are unlikely to outweigh the long-term benefits of working.

2020 / No. 21
Posted 2020-04-17

Unintended Consequences of Coronavirus-Related Unemployment Insurance Tax Laws

by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci

Waived employer payroll tax increases for state unemployment insurance appear to have increased layoffs.

2020 / No. 20
Posted 2020-04-16

Supporting Small Borrowers: ABS Markets and the TALF

by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

On March 23, the Federal Reserve established the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to support consumer and small business lending.

2020 / No. 19
Posted 2020-04-15

Fed Intervention in the To-Be-Announced Market for Mortgage-Backed Securities

by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

MBS purchases are designed to provide liquidity and facilitate trading of agency MBS during a period of disruption associated with the coronavirus.

2020 / No. 18
Posted 2020-04-14

The Wage Bills of COVID-19

by YiLi Chien and Julie Bennett

The largest potential wage loss comes from the health care and social assistance industry.

2020 / No. 17
Posted 2020-04-13

Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Supports Main Street

by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

Fed policy appears to have assisted the corporate credit market during a period of unusually high risk and fire-sale prices.

2020 / No. 16
Posted 2020-04-11

How Bad Can It Be? The Relationship between GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate

by YiLi Chien

Sectors most likely to be heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic amount to 70 percent of GDP.

2020 / No. 15
Posted 2020-04-10

The Stock Market's Wild Ride

by Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely

Quick action by the Fed to smooth the functioning of financial markets appears to have encouraged investors and stopped the historic downturn in the stock market.

2020 / No. 14
Posted 2020-04-09

The Year of Living Dangerously: The COVID-19 Shock and the Probability of Deflation

by Kevin L. Kliesen

With inflation currently low, the probability that it turns negative (deflation) will likely increase over the near term.

2020 / No. 13
Posted 2020-04-06

How Long Will the Relief Check Last?

by YiLi Chien

The money from relief checks will likely not last very long, even for low-income households.

2020 / No. 12
Posted 2020-04-03

U.S. States Hit the Hardest by COVID-19 Have Lower Unemployment Risks

by Sungki Hong and Devin Werner

States with relatively more COVID-19 cases tend to have a workforce less likely to face unemployment.

2020 / No. 11
Posted 2020-03-30

Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part II: The Economy and Fiscal Policy

by Fernando M. Martin

The economy is showing both positive and negative reactions to shutdown measures.

2020 / No. 10
Posted 2020-03-30

Economic Realities and Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Part I: Financial Markets and Monetary Policy

by Fernando M. Martin

The Federal Reserve has taken quick action to aid financial markets.

2020 / No. 9
Posted 2020-03-27

The Effects of COVID-19 on Unemployment Insurance Claims

by Aaron Amburgey and Serdar Birinci

The increase in unemployment insurance claims appears to be higher for states with relatively more employees in the service sector.

2020 / No. 8
Posted 2020-03-27

Fiscal Policy and COVID-19: Insights from a Quantitative Model

by Miguel Faria e Castro

Unemployment insurance may be the most effective way to help households right now.

2020 / No. 7
Posted 2020-03-20

COVID-19’s Shock on Firms’ Liquidity and Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Great Recession

by Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici

As the pandemic continues, financially vulnerable firms might be at greater risk of closing.

2020 / No. 6
Posted 2020-03-17

Possible Fiscal Policies for Rare, Unanticipated, and Severe Viral Outbreaks

by Bill Dupor

What should guide a fiscal authority in conducting macroeconomic policy in the event of a severe viral outbreak?

2020 / No. 5
Posted 2020-03-06

Geographic Disparity in U.S. Output

by B. Ravikumar and Brian Reinbold

A mere 81 of more than 3,000 counties produced half of total U.S. GDP in 2018.

2020 / No. 4
Posted 2020-02-28

Negative U.S. Interest Rates?

by Christopher J. Neely

Negative rates have many of the same effects as cuts in positive rates but put pressure on banks’ financial conditions, which has restrained their use.

2020 / No. 3
Posted 2020-02-14

Value-Added Trade vs. Gross Trade

by B. Ravikumar and Brian Reinbold

Measuring value-added trade provides a more accurate picture of global trade.

2020 / No. 2
Posted 2020-01-31

The United States as a Global Financial Intermediary and Insurer

by Alexander Monge-Naranjo

In times of global crisis, the rest of the world gains from investing in U.S. assets.

2020 / No. 1
Posted 2020-01-17

The College Wealth Divide Continues to Grow

by Alina K. Bartscher, Moritz Kuhn, and Moritz Schularick

The college wealth premium has increased threefold since the 1970s.