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2023 / No. 23
Posted 2023-11-24

Developments in Household Liabilities Since the 1990s

by Yu-Ting Chiang and Mick Dueholm

The ratio of household liabilities to income increased from the mid 1990s to 2010, driven by an increase in the supply of loans that outpaced loan demand.

2023 / No. 22
Posted 2023-11-17

Commercial Real Estate: Where Are the Financial Risks?

by Miguel Faria e Castro and Samuel Jordan-Wood

Large banks, with assets over $100 billion, tend to have significantly lower exposure to commercial real estate market risks than the average commercial bank in the US. 

2023 / No. 21
Posted 2023-10-10

Modeling Professional Recession Forecasts

by Christopher J. Neely

Professional forecasters use a wealth of information, including their own experience, to predict economic variables. But can a few publicly available series replicate their recession forecasts?

2023 / No. 20
Posted 2023-09-18

The Role of Credit Scores in the Recent Rise in Credit Card Delinquency

by Juan M. Sánchez and Masataka Mori

Researchers Sánchez and Mori examine the relationship between rising credit scores during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent increases in credit card delinquencies.

2023 / No. 19
Posted 2023-09-15

Where Are the Workers? A Look into the Decline in Immigration

by Hannah Rubinton and Cassie Marks

The number of missing workers in the US labor force peaked at 2.58 million in June 2020 during the pandemic, but immigration restrictions are likely not the main driver of the high vacancy-to-unemployment ratio. 

2023 / No. 18
Posted 2023-08-23

The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalization

by Amalia Estenssoro and Kevin L. Kliesen

As the Fed continues to normalize its balance sheet, lessons from past tightening episodes and projections of possible futures may help achieve the optimal amount of reserves in the banking system and avoid undo financial stress.

2023 / No. 17
Posted 2023-08-16

International Trade Dependence and Inventory Dynamics

by Fernando Leibovici and Jason Dunn

US manufacturers that source their intermediate inputs from abroad have been more likely to increase their inventories in the aftermath of unexpected events and heightened uncertainty. 

2023 / No. 16
Posted 2023-08-01

Statistics on Federal Reserve System Employment, 1915 to 2022

by Genevieve Podleski, Jonathan Rose, and Jona Whipple

Employment in the Federal Reserve System has been shaped by various factors over time, including demand for services, efficiency and productivity, legislative mandates, and responses to major economic events.

2023 / No. 15
Posted 2023-07-28

Generational Gaps in Income and Homeownership

by Victoria Gregory

At age 30, non-college-educated Boomers were about twice as likely as non-college-educated Millennials to own homes.

2023 / No. 14
Posted 2023-06-08

The FDIC Studies “Options for Deposit Insurance Reform”

by Christopher J. Neely

The FDIC favors targeted coverage of large accounts used for business payments when considering deposit insurance reform. 

2023 / No. 13
Posted 2023-06-02

Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt

by Julian Kozlowski and Samuel Jordan-Wood

The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates? 

2023 / No. 12
Posted 2023-05-26

Understanding the Speed and Size of Bank Runs in Historical Comparison

by Jonathan Rose

Bank runs have always been fast, but today’s runs are even faster. 

2023 / No. 11
Posted 2023-05-23

The Rise and Fall of M2

by Christopher J. Neely

Inflation followed M2 and monetary base growth up over the past three years, and now M2 and base growth are negative. 

2023 / No. 10
Posted 2023-05-08

Global Profit Shifting through Intellectual Property and the Impact of US Tax Reforms

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Jesse LaBelle

Evidence on patent transactions suggests that multinational enterprises engage in profit-shifting practices by transferring patents to tax havens.

2023 / No. 9
Posted 2023-04-28

US Barriers to International Trade of Goods: Tariffs and Non-Tariff Measures

by Fernando Leibovici and Jason Dunn

US imports are obstructed by both tariffs and non-tariff measures, which vary significantly across industries. 

2023 / No. 8
Posted 2023-04-21

How the Death Rate Affects the Aging of the US Population

by B. Ravikumar and Iris Arbogast

What is the effect of death rates on the increased average age of the US population? 

2023 / No. 7
Posted 2023-04-18

Measures of “Trend” Inflation

by Kevin L. Kliesen

Economists strive to measure trend inflation because it is a potentially useful guideline for predicting future inflation. But the various methods used can deviate considerably over time.

2023 / No. 6
Posted 2023-04-05

Eighth District Businesses Report Persistent Inflationary Pressures

by Charles S. Gascon

The St. Louis Fed’s survey shows that businesses expect inflation to persist but are more reluctant to raise the prices they charge their customers.

2023 / No. 5
Posted 2023-03-27

Income Segregation and Income Inequality

by Hannah Rubinton and Maggie Isaacson

This essay examines the relationship between income inequality and income segregation in the 100 largest cities in the United States.

2023 / No. 4
Posted 2023-03-08

The Evolution of Job Applications and Job-Finding Rates since the 1980s

by Serdar Birinci, Kurt See, and Shu Lin Wee

The number of monthly job applications has increased since the 1980s, but the job-finding rates have not. 

2023 / No. 3
Posted 2023-02-23

From Ye Olde Stagnation to Modern Growth in England

by Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Modern economic growth is a relatively recent phenomenon in history, but what led economies out of stagnation?

2023 / No. 2
Posted 2023-01-20

The Allocation of Immigrant Talent Across Countries: Earnings Gaps

by Serdar Birinci, Fernando Leibovici, and Kurt See

Immigrants are not only overrepresented in lower-paying jobs but are also paid less on average than native counterparts.

2023 / No. 1
Posted 2023-01-06

Professional Forecasters’ Outlook for 2023 and Caveats Based on Past Performance

by Charles S. Gascon

Individuals, businesses, and policymakers plan for the future by looking at possible changes in the economy, including income, the labor market, and interest rates. They may also seek guidance from professional forecasters.