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2021 / No. 22
Posted 2021-09-08

The Link Between Higher Commodity Prices and Inflation

by Kevin L. Kliesen

Price indexes with a larger energy component—such as the Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs–Standard & Poor’s—are more highly correlated with headline inflation.

2021 / No. 21
Posted 2021-08-30

Making Technical Adjustments: The Difference Between “Conducting” and “Implementing” Monetary Policy

by Jane Ihrig and Scott A. Wolla

Technical adjustments to the Fed’s administered rates help to implement existing monetary policy in changing market conditions.

2021 / No. 20
Posted 2021-08-24

Expanded Unemployment Programs Likely Slowed the Decline in Unemployment Claims During the Pandemic Recovery

by Amanda M. Michaud

The typical Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claimant claimed 9.5 to 11.5 more weeks of benefit payments than an individual claiming through regular state programs.

2021 / No. 19
Posted 2021-07-16

Mortgage Forbearance and Economic Recovery from the Pandemic

by Miguel Faria e Castro and Olivia Wilkinson

Providing households with some financial flexibility at a time of great uncertainty and income loss may have played a role in the recovery from the COVID-19 recession.

2021 / No. 18
Posted 2021-07-14

Post-Pandemic Activity Rebounds, but Many Remain Outside the Labor Force

by Nathan Jefferson

Jobs are returning, but the pandemic has accelerated longtime trends by knocking millions of people out of the labor force.

2021 / No. 17
Posted 2021-07-07

Rethinking Global Value Chains During COVID-19: Part 2

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Jesse LaBelle

Recent research shows that GVCs played a large role in the propagation of foreign shocks on U.S. industries.

2021 / No. 16
Posted 2021-07-06

Rethinking Global Value Chains During COVID-19: Part 1

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Jesse LaBelle

GVCs can make final goods production less costly and more efficient, but they are not without risks.

2021 / No. 15
Posted 2021-07-02

The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of COVID-19 and Government Policies: Part 2

by Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici

Health and containment policies were effective at curbing the spread of COVID-19, but at a significant economic cost. State-level economic support policies were effective at mitigating this cost and helped further curb the spread of the virus.

2021 / No. 14
Posted 2021-07-01

The Economic and Epidemiological Impact of COVID-19 and Government Policies: Part 1

by Matthew Famiglietti and Fernando Leibovici

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on economic activity but generated only mild changes in health containment policies.

2021 / No. 13
Posted 2021-06-28

Worker Types, Job Displacement, and Duration Dependence

by Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio, and David Wiczer

The composition of the workforce has implications for the earnings consequences of a job loss and patterns in the job-finding rate.

2021 / No. 12
Posted 2021-06-03

Putting Recent Inflation in Historical Context

by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

Prices for many items were depressed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we see the effect in current inflation reports.

2021 / No. 11
Posted 2021-05-19

Two Percent Inflation Over the Next Year: Should You Take the Over or the Under?

by Kevin L. Kliesen

According to the St. Louis Fed’s price pressures measure, there’s a 61 percent probability that inflation will average more than 2.5 percent over the next 12 months.

2021 / No. 10
Posted 2021-05-18

Classifying Worker Types in the U.S. Labor Market

by Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio, and David Wiczer

Why some worker types have difficulty finding stable jobs can’t easily be explained by demographic characteristics.

2021 / No. 9
Posted 2021-05-14

International Inflation Trends

by Christopher J. Neely

Expected inflation rates have risen in many countries after fiscal and monetary stimulus helped economies recover from the COVID-19 lockdown.

2021 / No. 8
Posted 2021-05-07

Childhood Income Volatility

by Hannah Rubinton and Maggie Isaacson

Rising volatility in family income suggests that government efforts such as the monthly payment of the child tax credit may be appropriate.

2021 / No. 7
Posted 2021-04-26

Information and Communications Technology Spending and City Size

by Hannah Rubinton and Maggie Isaacson

Firms in big cities are spending more on information and communications technology than firms in small cities, a likely cause of the growing economic divide between big and small U.S. cities.

2021 / No. 6
Posted 2021-04-14

Measuring Market-Based Inflation Expectations

by Kevin L. Kliesen

TIPS offer a hedge against inflation risks, so demand for these securities may be up because investors are worried about longer-run inflation.

2021 / No. 5
Posted 2021-04-05

Geographic Patterns of Innovation Across U.S. States: 1980-2010

by Jesse LaBelle and Ana Maria Santacreu

The distribution of innovation in the United States has become more concentrated and has shifted to the West.

2021 / No. 4
Posted 2021-02-26

Business Dynamism and City Size

by Hannah Rubinton

Business dynamism has been decreasing since the 1980s, but less so for larger cities.

2021 / No. 3
Posted 2021-02-24

Measuring Household Distress and Potential Policy Impacts

by Jeffrey P. Cohen, Cletus C. Coughlin, William R. Emmons, Jacob Haas, and Lowell R. Ricketts

Government policies such as income support and debt relief may help explain low levels of household financial distress, but outcomes are uncertain once assistance ends.

2021 / No. 2
Posted 2021-02-12

Personal Saving During the COVID-19 Recession

by Guillaume Vandenbroucke

More income from government transfers and less consumer spending fueled the recent spike in saving.

2021 / No. 1
Posted 2021-01-29

A Simple Evaluation of Two Decades of Inflation Targeting: Lessons for the New Monetary Policy Strategy

by Matthew Famiglietti and Carlos Garriga

New Fed guidance could deliver more inflation outcomes above the current inflation target.