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2018 / No. 18
Posted 2018-07-06

Why Are U.S. Bond Yields So High?

by Christopher J. Neely

Higher expected inflation, growth, and fiscal deficits raise U.S. long yields above foreign yields.

2018 / No. 17
Posted 2018-06-15

Price Markups for Small and Large Firms Over the Business Cycle

by Sungki Hong

Small firms exhibit more countercyclical markups than large firms over the business cycle.

2018 / No. 16
Posted 2018-06-01

Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs

by Kevin L. Kliesen

Both the yield curve and the unemployment rate tend to reliably predict recessions.

2018 / No. 15
Posted 2018-05-25

Understanding the Trade Imbalance and Employment Decline in U.S. Manufacturing

by Brian Reinbold and Yi Wen

Rising productivity caused labor-intensive goods-producing firms to relocate abroad.

2018 / No. 14
Posted 2018-05-04

What Does China’s Rise in Patents Mean? A Look at Quality vs. Quantity

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Heting Zhu

China is quickly catching up with other global leaders in innovation.

2018 / No. 13
Posted 2018-04-20

Trade Liberalization and Economic Development

by Fernando Leibovici and Jonas Crews

The effects from trade liberalization depend on a country’s level of economic development.

2018 / No. 12
Posted 2018-04-18

What Happens When Countries Increase Tariffs?

by Fernando Leibovici and Jonas Crews

Previous unilateral tariff increases have been associated with lower economic activity.

2018 / No. 11
Posted 2018-04-12

The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 3, Price Gaps

by Evan Karson, Joseph McGillicuddy, and B. Ravikumar

Growth in the price gaps between housing tiers appears to have reduced for-sale inventories in U.S. residential markets.

2018 / No. 10
Posted 2018-04-11

The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 2, Rental Demand

by Evan Karson, Joseph McGillicuddy, and B. Ravikumar

Several consecutive years of rental market strength appear to have contributed to the current housing shortage.

2018 / No. 9
Posted 2018-04-10

The Housing Supply Puzzle: Part 1, Divergent Markets

by Evan Karson, Joseph McGillicuddy, and B. Ravikumar

Homebuyers looking for lower- and middle-tier housing have been increasingly priced out of the new-home market.

2018 / No. 8
Posted 2018-04-06

Evolution of the Teen Abortion Rate in the United States

by Guillaume Vandenbroucke and Heting Zhu

The teen abortion rate in the United States has fallen over time. 

2018 / No. 7
Posted 2018-03-30

On Corporate Income Taxes, Employment, and Wages

by Shi Qi and Don Schlagenhauf

Tax changes could entice firms to change their legal form of organization.

2018 / No. 6
Posted 2018-03-23

Warning: Don’t Infer Regional Inflation Differences from House Price Changes

by Charles S. Gascon and Andrew Spewak

House price growth is not an accurate predictor of regional inflation.

2018 / No. 5
Posted 2018-03-09

On the Supply of, and Demand for, U.S. Treasury Debt

by David Andolfatto and Andrew Spewak

Demand for Treasuries increased during and after the financial crisis, but may be slowing.

2018 / No. 4
Posted 2018-03-02

Here’s Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Fundamentally Strong

by Kevin L. Kliesen and John A. Tatom

U.S. manufacturing’s slump is largely due to the poor performance of the overall economy.

2018 / No. 3
Posted 2018-02-16

Comparing Japan’s Lost Decade with the U.S. Great Recession

by Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Is the United States headed for a “lost decade” similar to Japan’s?

2018 / No. 2
Posted 2018-02-07

Manufacturing and Service Sector Roles in the Evolution of Innovation and Productivity

by Ana Maria Santacreu and Heting Zhu

How services contribute to innovation and productivity may determine how economies develop and industrialize.

2018 / No. 1
Posted 2018-02-02

Trade Adjusts Gradually After Trade Liberalization

by Fernando Leibovici and Jonas Crews

Imports increase more rapidly than exports in the short-run.

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