Results 1 - 16 of 16 for yield curve has inverted signaling [Publication: Review]
Past experience has led financial market participants to believe that future interest rates will be closely related to the performance of the economy. If so, the shape of the yield curve ought to summarize the implicit economic forecasts of a broad range of bond traders.
This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity.
This article was prepared for the Homer Jones Lecture, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 28, 2001. The author addresses the influence of monetarism and the role of money in making monetary policy. The monetarist idea that monetary policy has primary responsibility for inflation is now conventional wisdom.
Commentary on "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium" by Glenn D. Rudebusch, Brian P. Sack, and Eric T. Swanson.
This article discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. The author classifies macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models ("internal basis models") and models that have observed macroeconomic variables as state variables ("external basis models") and examines the underlying assumptions behind these models.
This article examines empirical issues associated with whether M2+ would be useful in the conduct of monetary policy.
Analyzing and forecasting the performance and direction of a large, complex economy like that of the United States is a difficult task. The process involves parsing a great deal of data, understanding key economic relationships, and assessing which events or factors might cause monetary or fiscal policymakers to change policy.
The recent financial crisis helped emphasize the need for measures of financial conditions. In the wake of the crisis, several researchers and institutions—both private sector and central bank—developed measures of financial stress.
The July/August issue of Review includes the proceedings from the 31st economic policy conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, "Frontiers in Monetary Policy Research." Economists working at this frontier bring forward new ideas from research in general equilibrium modeling and highlight both the promise and the limitations of recent advances.
An overview of this Review issue.
Review 16 items
David C. Wheelock 2 items
Kevin L. Kliesen 2 items
Anthony Pennington-Cross 1 items
Athanasios Orphanides 1 items
Brian Reid 1 items
publications 16 items