Results 1 - 19 of 19 for yield curve has inverted signaling [collection: publications]
The yield curve inverted before every one of the last nine U.S. recessions. How do U.S. government bonds shape the yield curve, why does it invert, and is it really a warning signal? Find out in the December 2019 issue of Page One Economics®.
Past experience has led financial market participants to believe that future interest rates will be closely related to the performance of the economy. If so, the shape of the yield curve ought to summarize the implicit economic forecasts of a broad range of bond traders.
Current macroeconomic indicators generally decrease before recessions, but not before yield curve inversions.
FRED® (Federal Reserve Economic Data) provides access to a wide range of time-series data. Several of those series signal stress levels in financial markets and the probability of economic recession. This Special Edition of Page One Economics® describes indexes of financial and economic recession risk for new data users and can serve as a reference for advanced data users.
This article surveys recent research on the usefulness of the term spread (i.e., the difference between the yields on long-term and short-term Treasury securities) for predicting changes in economic activity.
This article was prepared for the Homer Jones Lecture, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, March 28, 2001. The author addresses the influence of monetarism and the role of money in making monetary policy. The monetarist idea that monetary policy has primary responsibility for inflation is now conventional wisdom.
Commentary on "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium" by Glenn D. Rudebusch, Brian P. Sack, and Eric T. Swanson.
This article discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of "macro-finance" models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. The author classifies macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models ("internal basis models") and models that have observed macroeconomic variables as state variables ("external basis models") and examines the underlying assumptions behind these models.
This article examines empirical issues associated with whether M2+ would be useful in the conduct of monetary policy.
Analyzing and forecasting the performance and direction of a large, complex economy like that of the United States is a difficult task. The process involves parsing a great deal of data, understanding key economic relationships, and assessing which events or factors might cause monetary or fiscal policymakers to change policy.
Carlos Garriga 2 items
David C. Wheelock 2 items
Diego Mendez-Carbajo 2 items
Kevin L. Kliesen 2 items
Anthony Pennington-Cross 1 items
publications 19 items