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In Memoriam: Michael J. Dueker - Review

Our friend and former colleague Michael J. Dueker passed away on Wednesday, January 29, 2014. Mike was a well-respected economist and policy advisor, a sought-after colleague and coauthor, and a close friend of many current and former employees of the St. Louis Fed.

research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2014/03/13/in-memoriam-michael-j-dueker

Who Benefits from Increased Government Spending: A State-Level Analysis - Working Paper 2009-006

We simultaneously identify two government spending shocks: military spendingshocks as defined by Ramey (2011) and federal spending shocks as defined by Perotti(2008). We analyze the effect of these shocks on state-level personal income andemployment. We find regional patterns in the manner in which both shocks affect state-level variables. Moreover, we find differences in the propagation mechanisms for militaryversus non-military spending shocks. The former benefits economies with largermanufacturing and retail sectors and states that receive military contracts. Whilenon-military shocks also benefit states with the proper industrial mix, they appear tostimulate economic activity in lower-income states.

research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2009-006

Subprime Refinancing: Equity Extraction and Mortgage Termination - Working Paper 2006-023

This paper examines the choice of borrowers to extract wealth from housing in the high-cost (subprime) segment of the mortgage market while refinancing and assesses the prepayment and default performance of these cash-out refinance loans relative to the rate refinance loans. Consistent with survey evidence the propensity to extract equity while refinancing is sensitive to interest rates on other forms of consumer debt. After the loan is originated, our results indicate that cash-out refinances perform differently from non cash-out refinances. For example, cash-outs are less likely to default or prepay, and the termination of cash-outs is more sensitive to changing interest rates and house prices.

research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2006-023

Quick Exits of Subprime Mortgages - Review

All holders of mortgage contracts, regardless of type, have three options: keep their payments current, prepay (usually through refinancing), or default on the loan. The latter two options terminate the loan. The termination rates of subprime mortgages that originated each year from 2001 through 2006 are surprisingly similar: about 20, 50, and 80 percent, respectively, at one, two, and three years after origination.

research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2009/03/02/quick-exits-of-subprime-mortgages

The Recent Credit Crunch: The Neglected Dimensions - Review

Kevin L. Kliesen and John A. Tatom take a historical view of credit crunches and their relevance to the nation’s cyclical performance. They explain the origins of the credit crunch concept and point to the consistent misapplication of the concept to cyclical credit market developments.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../review/1992/09/01/the-recent-credit-crunch-the-neglected-dimensions

The Impact of Local Predatory Lending Laws - Working Paper 2005-049

Local authorities in North Carolina, and subsequently in at least 23 other states, have enacted laws intending to reduce predatory and abusive lending. While there is substantial variation in the laws, they typically extend the coverage of the Federal Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA) by including home purchase and open-end mortgage credit, by lowering annual percentage rate (APR) and fees and points triggers, and by prohibiting or restricting the use of balloon payments and prepayment penalties. This paper provides a detailed summary of various local predatory lending laws that are effective as of the end of 2004. We also create an index that captures differences in the strength of the local laws along the two important dimensions of coverage and restrictions. In addition, our univariate results show that there is substantial heterogeneity in the observed market responses to the local laws.

research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2005-049

Stabilization Policy and Inflation - Review

The projected course of economic activity for this year is discussed in the 1969 Economic Report of the President, which was presented to Congress on January 16. The appended report of the outgoing Council of Economic Advisers projected total spending in the fourth quarter of 1969 to be 6 per cent above fourth quarter 1968. Though their estimate is labeled a forecast, it may be considered, more appropriately, a target or plan in the spirit of the Employment Act of 1946. To achieve this 6 per cent target growth in total demand, the outgoing Administration proposed a budget consisting of a 5.5 per cent increase in Federal spending in the year ending fourth quarter 1969, and continuation of the 10 per cent tax surcharge to mid-1970.

research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/1969/02/01/stabilization-policy-and-inflation

Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand - Working Paper 2004-008

This paper studies the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Newspaper coverage and policymakers' statements are used to analyze the views on the inflation process that led to the 1970s macroeconomic policies, and the different movement in each country away from 1970s views. I argue that to understand the course of policy in each country, it is crucial to use the monetary policy neglect hypothesis, which claims that the Great Inflation occurred because policymakers delegated inflation control to nonmonetary devices. This hypothesis helps explain why, unlike Canada, Australia and New Zealand continued to suffer high inflation in the mid-1980s. The delayed disinflation in these countries reflected the continuing importance accorded to nonmonetary views of inflation.

research.stlouisfed.org/wp/more/2004-008

Our "Shrinking" Farmland: Mirage or Potential Crisis? - Review

Each year, more American farmland is being converted to nonfarm uses such as highways, houses, airports, and shopping centers. This development has engendered fear that the decline in farmland will eventually produce a severe crisis for U.S. food production. 

research.stlouisfed.org/.../review/1980/10/01/our-shrinking-farmland-mirage-or-potential-crisis

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