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Pitfalls to the Current Expansion - Review

The economic expansion following the 1973-75 recession has entered into its fourth year. Of the five previous economic expansions dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, all but one lasted at least three years, but only one of these expansions was sustained beyond the four-year mark. The longer-run experience of U.S. business fluctuations since the end of the Civil War indicates that only three of the previous 25 business expansions lasted 16 quarters or longer, and each of these was associated with unusual circumstances such as war. As the current recovery completes its thirteenth quarter of expansion, this historical perspective brings into question whether forces are now developing which may soon end the current business expansion.

research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/1978/07/01/pitfalls-to-the-current-expansion

Is Inflation All Due to Money? - Review

Inflation is an all-pervasive problem which affects everyone’s decisions. Individuals must consider the outlook for prices when planning budgets or wage demands, when deciding whether to buy a house or in what form to hold savings, as well as a multitude of other economic decisions. Also, business is increasingly concerned about the outlook for inflation, especially as it relates to planning and capital investment. It is not surprising, therefore, that persistent inflation has led to increased public demands that something be done to correct the problem.

research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/1978/12/01/is-inflation-all-due-to-money

A Perspective on the Economy: Three Years of Expansion - Review

March 1978 marked the third anniversary of the current economic expansion. Over the course of the expansion, growth in production of goods and services has been comparable to the average output growth in similar three-year periods of prior recoveries. By other measures, however, this recovery has not been average. Growth in employment, for example, has been exceptional. Moreover, the level of unemployment and the pace of inflation both have remained relatively high.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../1978/05/01/a-perspective-on-the-economy-three-years-of-expansion

The Economic Consequences of Wage-Price Guidelines - Review

Voluntary wage and price guidelines have now been adopted as a major element in the government’s anti-inflation program. The pricing behavior of firms and wage demands of labor are considered by a large portion of the population to be incompatible with the social objective of reducing inflation. Restraint in wage and price movements is believed to be necessary. Monetary and fiscal restraint alone apparently have been judged as either not being able to accomplish this objective or as carrying too high a cost, in terms of lost output and employment.

research.stlouisfed.org/.../review/1978/12/01/the-economic-consequences-of-wage-price-guidelines