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January/February 2004

Posted 2004-01-01

A Perspective on U.S. International Capital Flows

by William Poole

The author emphasize just how important international capital flows are to the United States. He sheds some light on trade issues by exploring the intimate connections between international trade and international capital flows.

Posted 2004-01-01

Casino Gaming and Local Employment Trends

by Thomas A. Garrett

When the chips are down. Cities and rural counties alike are increasingly looking to casino gambling to boost employment and growth. The author examines when that bet pays off and when it doesn't.

Posted 2004-01-01

U.S. Regional Business Cycles and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

by Howard J. Wall and Gylfi Zoega

Unemployment: separate and unequal. Economic forecasters and policy advisors look closely at unemployment. The authors suggest that regional differences deserve a closer look when calculating the country's overall "natural" rate of unemployment.

Posted 2004-01-01

Subjective Probabilities: Psychological Theories and Economic Applications

by Abbigail J. Chiodo, Massimo Guidolin, Michael T. Owyang, and Makoto Shimoji

The psychology gap. In their models, economists assume people plan their lives rationally. Psychologists show that people rely on loose rules of thumb to predict the future. In this article, the authors discuss the gap.

Posted 2004-01-01

The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Identification in Structural VARs

by Lucio Sarno and Daniel L. Thornton

The EMH and the SVAR. The authors add to the literature on structural vector autoregression models by showing that, if it includes one or more variables efficient in the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis, the identifying restrictions frequently imposed in SVARs cannot be satisfied.