The Federal Reserve implements its monetary policy by using open market operations in U.S. government securities to target the federal funds rate. A substantial decline in the stock of U.S. Treasury debt could interfere with the conduct of monetary policy, possibly forcing the Fed to rely more heavily on discount window lending or to conduct open market transactions in other types of securities.
Economic forecasters pay especially close attention to labor market indicators during periods of economic uncertainty. Labor market data are thought to provide early evidence about changes in the course of the economy. This articles examines whether monthly changes in labor market indicators are useful for predicting real GDP.
The Idaho legislature passed their right-to-work law in 1986. Idaho provides an interesting case study for the effects of the law because it adopted the law during a period in which unionization had already declined substantially in the United States.
This article investigates the use of genetic programming to forecast out-of-sample daily volatility in the foreign exchange market. Forecasting performance is evaluated relative to GARCH(1, 1) and RiskMetricsTM models for two currencies, the Deutsche mark and the Japanese yen.
follow @stlouisfed