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May/June 1997

Measuring Inflation and Real Growth

Posted 1997-05-01

Measuring Consumption: The Post-1973 Slowdown and the Research Issues

by Jack E. Triplett

The author first reviews the slowdown in consumption growth rates and then turns to the measures of current-dollar consumption expenditures—the numerator of the real consumption ratio. He then discusses the price statistics used for deflation, with particular attention given to the report of the CPI Commission (1996).

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary on "Measuring Consumption: The Post-1973 Slowdown and the Research Issues"

by Peter J. Klenow

Commentary on "Measuring Consumption: The Post-1973 Slowdown and the Research Issues" by Jack E. Triplett.

Posted 1997-05-01

On Defining Real Consumption

by Edward C. Prescott

The author discusses how theory might be used to better measure the quantities and prices of the commodities aggregated to form real consumption. He thinks a better definition of the real consumption of property and casualty insurance consumption is based upon a gross premium notion. He notes that significantly more resources should be devoted to improving the definition of real consumption in light of modern economic theory—because the social payoff to such an investment would be large, relative to the cost.

Posted 1997-05-01

Measuring and Analyzing Aggregate Fluctuations: The Importance of Building From Microeconomic Evidence

by John C. Haltiwanger

The author discusses how it is becoming increasingly apparent that changes in the key macro aggregates at cyclical and secular frequencies are best understood by tracking the evolution of the cross-sectional distribution of activity and changes at the micro level.

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary 1 on "Measuring and Analyzing Aggregate Fluctuations: The Importance of Building From Microeconomic Evidence"

by Alan Heston

Commentary on "Measuring and Analyzing Aggregate Fluctuations: The Importance of Building From Microeconomic Evidence" by John C. Haltiwanger.

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary 2 on "Measuring and Analyzing Aggregate Fluctuations: The Importance of Building From Microeconomic Evidence"

by Jeffrey Campbell

Commentary on "Measuring and Analyzing Aggregate Fluctuations: The Importance of Building From Microeconomic Evidence" by John C. Haltiwanger.

Posted 1997-05-01

Quality Change in the CPI

by Charles R. Hulten

The author raises several concerns about the treatment of “quality” in the CPI. He notes that the right way to deal with problems in any measurement program, including the CPI, is to address each problem in its own right and apply the appropriate fix.

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary 1 on "Quality Change in the CPI"

by Per Krusell

Commentary on "Quality Change in the CPI" by Charles R. Hulten.

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary 2 on "Quality Change in the CPI"

by Robert J. Gordon

Commentary on "Quality Change in the CPI" by Charles R. Hulten.

Posted 1997-05-01

Alternative Strategies for Aggregating Prices in the Consumer Price Index

by Matthew D. Shapiro and David W. Wilcox

This article presents a new estimate of the magnitude of the across-strata effect in the CPI. It also proposes a method for picking the low-hanging fruit—that is, for publishing a real-time index substantially free of across-strata bias. 

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary 1 on "Alternative Strategies for Aggregating Prices in the Consumer Price Index"

by W. Erwin Diewert

Commentary on "Alternative Strategies for Aggregating Prices in the Consumer Price Index" by Matthew D. Shapiro and David W. Wilcox.

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary 2 on "Alternative Strategies for Aggregating Prices in the Consumer Price Index"

by Peter Howitt

Commentary on "Alternative Strategies for Aggregating Prices in the Consumer Price Index" by Matthew D. Shapiro and David W. Wilcox.

Posted 1997-05-01

Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers

by Stephen G. Cecchetti

As the focus of monetary policy shifts, it has become increasingly important to have accurate, reliable measures of inflation. This article examines the difficulties surrounding the measurement of the changes in the aggregate price level.

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary 1 on "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers"

by Alan S. Blinder

Commentary on "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers" by Stephen G. Cecchetti.

Posted 1997-05-01

Commentary 2 on "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers"

by Mark A. Wynne

Commentary on "Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers" by Stephen G. Cecchetti.

Posted 1997-05-01

Panel Discussion:

The Commission Report on the Consumer Price Index

by Zvi Griliches

The author discusses problems with the measurement of the CPI, which he notes are not going to be fixed in the next revision. He further notes that quality change and new goods present two generic problems, one he calls “too late” and the other “too particular.”

Posted 1997-05-01

Panel Discussion:

A Bureau of Labor Statistics Perspective on Bias in the Consumer Price Index

by John S. Greenlees

The author presents the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) perspective on bias in the CPI. He works his way through the main categories of potential bias in the CPI and mentions some BLS activities that address those problems. He notes that disagreements and controversy surround the problems’ relative importance, size, and—in some cases—direction.

Posted 1997-05-01

Panel Discussion:

Inflation Measurement and Inflation Targets: The UK Experience

by William A. Allen

The author discusses the use of the retail price index (RPIX) to inform U.K. monetary policy and then some of the general problems of measuring consumer prices and the implications for monetary policy.