The Vulnerability of Pegged Exchange Rates: The British Pound in the ERM
Between September 1992 and August 1993, the European Monetary System (EMS) endured its most serious crisis since it began in 1979. Cross-pegging their exchange rates in the framework of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), member countries were confronted with a string of speculative currency attacks. As described by Mathias Zurlinden, the near-collapse of the ERM provides a useful example of a speculative attack under conditions of easy access to foreign exchange reserves and free capital mobility. Concentrating on the British experience in the ERM during the crisis, Zurlinden finds that a necessary condition for a speculative attack is the markets' expectation that the central bank will shift policy as a result of the attack. He concludes that an unwavering commitment to a fixed exchange rate is critical to maintaining an effective exchange regime.