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September/October 1993, 
Vol. 75, No. 5
Posted 1993-09-01

Indicators of Monetary Policy: The View from Implicit Feedback Rules

by Michael J. Dueker

Monetary policymakers rely on a number of indicators to gauge the thrust of recent policy actions, that is, whether or not those actions have been consistent with eventual accelerations or decelerations of inflation. Unfortunately, traditional monetary policy indicators have provided conflicting signals since 1990, making it difficult to infer a target rate of inflation. Michael J. Dueker generates several alternative indicators of monetary policy by assuming that the Federal Reserve implicitly targets either nominal gross domestic product (GDP) or M2 via a feedback rule. He finds that one of five nominal GDP targeting models examined is reliable, and it suggests that the Fed’s long-run inflation target was about 3 percent between 1983 and 1990. Furthermore, the long-run inflation target does not appear to have changed in any obvious way since 1990.