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March/April 1992, 
Vol. 74, No. 2
Posted 1992-03-01

The FOMC in 1991: An Elusive Recovery

by James Bullard

James B. Bullard presents an overview of recent actions taken by the Federal Open Market Committee, the arm of the Federal Reserve System with the primary responsibility for monetary policy. Since 1991 was a year that began with declines in aggregate economic activity and ended with some slight gains, this article provides a case study of policymaking during the recovery phase of the business cycle. In the context of a chronology of FOMC decisionmaking, the author focuses on two key problems faced by the Committee. One is that, because of lags in data collection and the difficulty of forecasting, it is hard for the FOMC to assess the strength of the economy at a point in time. The other is that the magnitude and even the direction of policy thrust can be a matter of interpretation. Bullard shows how the FOMC grappled with these two problems through the year and ended up supporting relatively steady policies during the spring, when recovery seemed likely, and relatively easy policies in the fall, when recovery seemed elusive.