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May/June 1988, 
Vol. 70, No. 3
Posted 1988-05-01

Money Demand and Inflation in Switzerland: An Application of the Pascal Lag Technique

by Tobias F. Rötheli

Tobias F. Rötheli develops a flexible model of price-level adjustment to estimate Swiss money demand. This econometric specification allows the estimation of money demand elasticities and the dynamic response of the price level to a change in the supply of or demand for real money balances. The results corroborate the skepticism toward the use of the partial-adjustment hypothesis or Koyck lag for the price-level adjustment: It takes approximately one and one-half years for the adjustment speed of the price level to reach its maximum. Moreover, the Koyck lag overestimates the half-time of the price-level adjustment by 90 percent. Additional findings on the demand for money indicate that, if no structural shifts occur, M1 growth of between 1 percent and 3 percent per year is consistent with a stable price level in Switzerland.