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October 1983, 
Vol. 65, No. 8
Posted 1983-10-01

Forecasting the Money Multiplier: Implications for Money Stock Control and Economic Activity

by R. W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein, and Clemens J.M. Kool

R. W. Hafer, Scott E. Hein, and Clemens J. M. Kool examine one key aspect of monetary targeting: the ability to produce accurate forecasts of the money multiplier. The authors compare two techniques for generating such forecasts. One technique is based on the well-known procedures developed by Box and Jenkins. The second technique, which is derived from a Kalman filter process, represents a relatively new approach to multiplier forecasting. The results indicate that both procedures yield quite accurate monthly multiplier forecasts. In general, however, the Kalman filter approach provides better results; that is, it has a lower average forecast error. The authors then simulate monthly and quarterly money growth rates for the 1980-82 period using both forecasting procedures for the money multiplier, by adjusting the level of the monetary base in line with the ex ante multiplier forecasts. The resulting multiplier forecast/money control procedure significantly reduces the quarterly variability of money growth.