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October 1982

The Mix of Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Conventional Wisdom Vs. Empirical Reality

by Keith M. Carlson

​This article examines four dependent variables that seem relevant in any discussion of policy mix—nominal interest rates, real interest rates, the rate of output growth, and the investment ratio. The author concludes the following: (1) Movements of nominal interest rates and, to a lesser extent, real rates are dominated by monetary actions. The effect off fiscal actions on interest rates is not statistically significant. (2) There is a short-run effect of monetary actions on output growth, but it is only temporary. Over the long run, movements in output growth are unaffected by either monetary or fiscal actions. (3) The investment ratio is influenced temporarily by monetary actions, but the effect appears to be permanent for fiscal actions.