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August/September 1982

The Link Between Money and Prices in an Open Economy: The Canadian Evidence from 1971 to 1980

by Michael D. Bordo and Ehsan U. Choudhri

Since 1970, Canada ostensibly has followed a flexible exchange rate policy that should have allowed its monetary authorities to focus directly on controlling the Canadian inflation rate. Since 1975, the Canadian monetary authorities have been publicly committed to reducing inflation by a policy of gradually reducing the rate of monetary growth. Yet Canada has fared no better than the United States and other industrialized economies in controlling inflation during the 1970s. This paper uses a quantity theory framework to examine Canadian inflation over the past decade. In addition to assessing the impact of money growth on price changes, the authors test for the influence of other factors commonly believed to have contributed to Canadian inflation, for instance, the relative price of energy, Canadian wage-push, and the rate of unemployment. Finally, they examine the influence of U.S. monetary growth and inflation on Canadian money growth and inflation. The authors find that Canadian inflation is largely explained by lagged Canadian money growth. Furthermore, they find evidence of a link between Canadian and U.S. monetary growth in addition to a direct link between the U.S. and Canadian inflation rates.