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June/July 1982

Short-Run Money Growth Volatility: Evidence of Misbehaving Money Demand?

by Scott E. Hein

The past two years have been anything but tranquil for the U.S. economy. Interest rates, for example, have been high and volatile. Twice during this period they rose to record levels. Two recessions have occurred during this brief period, one of which apparently still lingers. Significant financial changes have taken place, with an influx of deposits into money market mutual funds and an outflow from small time and savings deposit. The nationwide legalization of NOW accounts in early 1981 also resulted in a sizable reallocation of funds. Amid all of these developments, money growth also has been quite volatile. This article examines the evidence to determine whether money demand behavior over the past two years has been erratic enough justify the observed volatility in money growth.