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June/July 1982

Inflation Misinformation and Monetary Policy

by Lawrence S. Davidson

This article presents evidence to support the hypothesis that states that efforts to counteract short-term price changes generally are unnecessary and counterproductive. We begin by analyzing the behavior of the individual components of the personal consumption expenditures index to determine the “causes” of observed quarterly changes in the average price level. We then analyze the performance of a variable series constructed to approximate the cyclical or nontrend movements in the measured inflation rate. An analysis of this series reveals why the public should be reluctant to pressure policymakers into reacting quickly to even large short-run changes in the measured inflation rate. Finally, we present data that suggests that monetary policies to combat short-run changes in the inflation rate raise the risk of increasing the underlying or long-term trend of inflation.