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May 1981

Posted 1981-05-01

The Classical Gold Standard: Some Lessons for Today

by Michael D. Bordo

Posted 1981-05-01

We Are All Supply-Siders Now!

by John A. Tatom

Posted 1981-05-01

Trends in Federal Revenues: 1955-86

by Keith M. Carlson

Posted 1981-05-01

List of Participants

Posted 1981-05-01

The Supply-Side Effects of Economic Policy:

Foreword and Acknowledgement

by Laurence H. Meyer

Posted 1981-05-01

Part I: Theory and Evidence:

Part I: Complete File

Posted 1981-05-01

Part I: Theory and Evidence:

Tax Rates, Factor Employment, and Market Production

by Victor A. Canto, Douglas H. Joines, and Arthur B. Laffer

Victor Canto, Douglas Joines, and Arthur Laffer develop a simple, static, one-good, two-factor general equilibrium model in which taxes on factor incomes drive a wedge between gross factor payments and net factor incomes. The authors then derive the response of factor supplies, output, and tax revenue to changes in tax rates.

Posted 1981-05-01

Part I: Theory and Evidence:

An Econometric Model Incorporating the Supply-Side Effects of Economic Policy

by Michael K. Evans

Michael Evans discusses the implications of the supply-side macroeconometric model he recently developed. According to Evans, stimulating investment is a key to supply-side policy because it will both increase real growth and moderate inflation. Evans finds that investment would be significantly stimulated by reductions in tax rates, regardless of whether the tax cuts apply to corporate income, personal income, or capital gains. 

Posted 1981-05-01

Part I: Theory and Evidence:

Thoughts on the Laffer Curve

by Alan S. Blinder

Alan Blinder notes that the proposition that the function relating tax rates to tax revenues rises to a peak and then falls is both an old idea and a noncontroversial one. The important issue raised by the Canto, Joines, Arthur Laffer paper, according to Blinder, is whether current U.S. tax rates are in the prohibitive range of the Laffer curve, implying that a decrease in tax rates would increase tax revenues.

Posted 1981-05-01

Part I: Theory and Evidence:

Discussion of the Evans Paper, "An Econometric Model Incorporating the Supply-Side Effects of Economic Policy"

by Steven Braun

Posted 1981-05-01

Part I: Theory and Evidence:

Discussion of the Evans Paper, "An Econometric Model Incorporating the Supply-Side Effects of Economic Policy"

by Albert Ando

Posted 1981-05-01

Part II: Saving and Investment:

Part II: Complete File

Posted 1981-05-01

Part II: Saving and Investment:

Tax Policy and Corporate Investment

by Lawrence H. Summers

Lawrence Summers evaluates various arguments in support of policy measures to stimulate investment and then presents empirical evidence on the response of investment to an assortment of tax changes. He concludes that policies to encourage investment will result in only a small increase in the rate of economic growth over the next decade, that tax policies to stimulate investment are unlikely to moderate inflation, and that fears of insufficient capital accumulation as a source of unemployment are groundless.

Posted 1981-05-01

Part II: Saving and Investment:

Estimates of Investment Functions and Some Implications for Productivity Growth

by Patric H. Hendershott

Patric Hendershott evaluates the investment sector of Evans’ macroeconometric model and discusses the implications of the composition of investment for productivity growth. Hendershott concludes that Evans’ treatment of nonresidential investment and residential investment does not represent an advance relative to conventional treatments.

Posted 1981-05-01

Part II: Saving and Investment:

Discussion of the Summers Paper, "Tax Policy and Corporate Investment"

by Norman B. Ture

Posted 1981-05-01

Part III: Labor Supply and the Natural Rate of Unemployment:

Part III: Complete File

Posted 1981-05-01

Part III: Labor Supply and the Natural Rate of Unemployment:

Income and Payroll Tax Policy and Labor Supply

by Jerry Hausman

Jerry Hausman presents evidence on the effects of income and payroll taxes on labor supply. Hausman emphasizes that while supply-side economics has focused attention on the labor supply and revenue effects of changes on tax rates, the correct measure of the economic cost of taxation is the deadweight loss associated with taxation.

Posted 1981-05-01

Part III: Labor Supply and the Natural Rate of Unemployment:

Transfers, Taxes and the NAIRU

by Daniel S. Hamermesh

Daniel Hamermesh presents a detailed examination of the effects of individual tax and transfer programs on the unemployment rate (specifically, on the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, NAIRU), labor supply, and employment. He argues that this microeconomic approach, building up from a study of individual programs, is likely to be more reliable than an aggregate or macroeconomic approach that ignores the programs’ complexities.

Posted 1981-05-01

Part III: Labor Supply and the Natural Rate of Unemployment:

Discussion of the Hausman Paper, "Income and Payroll Tax Policy and Labor Supply"

by Jeffrey M. Perloff

Posted 1981-05-01

Part III: Labor Supply and the Natural Rate of Unemployment:

Discussion of the Hamermesh Paper, "Transfers, Taxes and the NAIRU"

by Fredric Raines

Posted 1981-05-01

Part IV: Luncheon and Dinner Speeches:

Part IV: Complete File

Posted 1981-05-01

Part IV: Luncheon and Dinner Speeches:

The Power of Negative Thinking: Government Regulation and Economic Performance

by Murray L. Weidenbaum

Murray L. Weidenbaum warns that, at a time when the importance of tax incentives on economic activity is being debated, economists should not overlook the continually increasing array of government regulation that impairs economic activity.

Posted 1981-05-01

Part IV: Luncheon and Dinner Speeches:

The Politic of Supply-Side Economics

by Orrin G. Hatch

Senator Orrin G. Hatch concludes that the establishment of a “budget process” in Congress in the mid- 7Os has not helped arrest the growth in government spending or the reliance on deficits.


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