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March 1981

The Impact of Energy Prices and Money Growth on Five Industrial Countries

by R. W. Hafer

In the winter of 1973-74, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quadrupled the price of oil from $3 a barrel to about $12 a barrel, a fourfold increase that, along with a marked slowing of money growth, precipitated one of the longest and deepest postwar declines in economic activity in most industrial nations. The subsequent recession was followed by a period of relatively rapid economic expansion in most of these nations, only to be halted by yet another explosion in energy prices in 1979 and 1980. Once again, it appears that this price increase has been accompanied by sharply reduced money growth. This article discusses the impact of recent energy price changes and monetary growth on the economic performance of five major industrial countries: Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.