Dynamic Forecasting and the Demand for Money
This paper reexamines the conclusions that have emerged from inadequate dynamic money demand forecasts. First, it presents a conventional money demand relationship and its post-1974 dynamic forecasts, along with a restatement of the conclusions drawn from such an investigation. Next, the dynamic forecasting procedure is contrasted, in general terms, with the more widely understood static forecasting technique. This analysis provides a framework for reevaluating conclusions about the breakdown in the money demand relationship.