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December 1978

Are Preliminary Week-to-Week Fluctuations in M1 Biased?

by Courtenay C. Stone and Jeffrey B. C. Olson

The preliminary seasonally adjusted estimate for weekly Ml—the money stock consisting of currency in the hands of the public and net private demand deposits—released each Thursday afternoon by the Federal Reserve has become one of the most eagerly awaited, widely publicized, and closely watched of all economic statistics. Changes in stock prices, movements in interest rates, variations in the volume of trading on financial markets—even fluctuations in the foreign-exchange value of the U.S. dollar—are frequently cited as consequences of the public’s reactions to the week-to-week changes reported for the money stock.