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September 1978

Does the Stage of the Business Cycle Affect the Inflation Rate?

by John A. Tatom

With the U.S. economy well into its fourth year of expansion and approaching high rates of resource employment, renewed fears of accelerating inflation have surfaced. One source of such concern is the widely held view that the rate of inflation is a cyclical phenomenon, falling during recessions and rising as the economy approaches a cyclical peak. According to this explanation, inflation is influenced by the degree of slack in markets for goods, services, and resources.