As the papers presented at this conference demonstrate, there is a divergence of views as to whether current measures of capacity utilization overstate or understate the amount of untapped capacity remaining in the economy. I want to sidestep this issue, concentrating instead on one widely used measure of capacity utilization: the Federal Reserve Board’s capacity utilization rate for manufacturing. In particular, I want to discuss a simple model which can be used to project manufacturing capacity utilization, as published by the Board, over the next couple of years.