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October 1975

The Relationship Between Monetary Base and Money: How Close?

by Albert E. Burger

Lately, there has been considerable discussion about setting targets for the growth rate of money. However, of those proposing such targets for monetary growth, none has stated the probability that the actual growth rate of money will fall within the bounds they have suggested. Clearly, the Federal Reserve cannot guarantee with 100 percent certainty that it will achieve any specific growth rate of money, and Congress should not expect the Federal Reserve to do so. There always exists a probability greater than zero that the growth rate of money will exceed or fall short of its targeted rate by some amount.