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September 1975

Real Money Balances: A Good Forecasting Device and a Good Policy Target?

by Anatol Balbach and Denis S. Karnosky

For the past two hundred years, economists have debated the issue of the proper goals of monetary policy. In times of strict adherence to the gold standard, the policy aspect of national money management was of secondary importance. With fiat money and loose or nonexistent ties to a commodity standard, monetary policy became the ultimate determinant of the quantity and quality of money stock. In a broad sense, the goal that has emerged is to provide an amount of money consistent with sustainable economic growth and the avoidance of such undesirable economic conditions as inflation or recession.