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June 1975

A Monetary Model of Nominal Income Determination

by Leonall C. Andersen

During the past several years the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has presented a number of empirical studies demonstrating a strong and predictable response of nominal gross national product (GNP) to changes in the nation’s money stock. These studies found that changes in the secular trend of the money stock are the prime determinant of changes in the secular trend of GNP. They also found that short-run changes in GNP are related to similar changes in the money stock. On the other hand, changes in Government spending were found to have only a temporary short-run influence on changes in GNP. A number of other studies, using variations of the approach of the St. Louis studies, have yielded similar empirical relationships.