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March 1970

Extent of the Slowdown

by Norman N. Bowsher

Spending growth has slowed in recent months; production has stagnated or declined. Total dollar spending on goods and services rose at about a 4 per cent annual rate from the third to fourth quarter of 1969, compared with an average 8 per cent rate from 1965 to the fall of 1969. Spending probably rose yet more slowly in early 1970. Real production of goods and services declined slightly from the third to fourth quarter last year, and the decline probably accelerated in early 1970. From mid-1968 to the fall of 1969, real output had risen at a 2.8 per cent rate, and 5 per cent in the previous year.