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Short essays on the economic issues of the day written for a generally informed readership.
2013, No. 15
Low Inflation in a World of Securitization
Weak lending may still be the culprit behind low inflation, but monetary aggregates may no longer closely track credit conditions.
2013, No. 14
What Flattened the Earnings Profile of Recent College Graduates?
Over their working lifetimes, college graduates who entered the workforce many decades ago experienced a greater increase in wages than more-recent college graduates.
2013, No. 13
The Great Chinese Housing Boom
Significant store-of-value demand for housing suggests a bubble that could burst, especially when both the household income growth rate and the savings rate start to decline and capital controls in China start to relax.
2013, No. 12
Winners and Losers in the Great Recession
For a significant number of industries - representing roughly a quarter of the U.S. economy - the most recent recession has been business as usual when judged by pre-recession trends. For a slightly larger group of industries, mostly related to construction, manufacturing, and trade, the contractions have been severe, reinforcing a preexisting process of steady relative decline.
2013, No. 11
The Macroeconomy of the U.S. States: On the Road to Recovery?
Despite the recent recovery in house prices, most state economies have yet to recover from the Great Recession.
2013, No. 10
Lessons from the Recent Recession: The Faster They Grow, the Harder They Fall
U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted significantly and persistently during the recent financial crisis and recession. Lessons can be learned from comparing the U.S. experience with that of other industrialized countries.
2013, No. 9
Life Cycle Patterns and Boom-Bust Dynamics in U.S. Housing Prices
Home equity did not increase much for households younger than 35 years of age between 1998 and 2007 because the increase in house prices was offset by an equivalent increase in mortgage debt.
2013, No. 8
Would It Help To Eliminate Interest on Reserves?
Although we can’t be certain of the size of the effect, the ECB’s recent experience suggests that eliminating interest paid on reserves held with the Federal Reserve would not substantially increase bank lending and money growth.
2013, No. 7
Political Pressure on the Bank of Japan: Interference or Accountability?
Markets have come to believe that the Bank of Japan can and will raise Japan’s inflation rate to meet its new target.
2013, No. 6
Measuring the Contribution of Construction to the Slow Recovery
Recovery of the construction sector seems a necessary ingredient for a strong and sustained recovery of economic activity and a reduction in the unemployment rate.
2013, No. 5
Is the Fed Monetizing Government Debt?
Under this latter scenario, the Fed is not monetizing government debt — it is simply managing the supply of the monetary base in accordance with the goals set by its dual mandate.
2013, No. 4
The excess supply of commercial and residential real estate might explain why the historically low nominal and real interest rates have had relatively little effect on stimulating investment.
2013, No. 3
From "Man-Cession" to "He-Covery": Same Old, Same Old
The male labor force was hit harder during the recent recession because more jobs were lost in occupations and sectors that traditionally employ more men.
2013, No. 2
The residential real estate market showed additional signs of improvement in 2012, though the recovery has been quite different for single-family compared with multifamily markets.
2013, No. 1
Is the FOMC’s Unemployment Rate Threshold a Good Idea?
The November 2012 unemployment rate would have been 1.6 percent higher had the labor force participation rate declined as it did following the 2001 recession.
