Short essays on the economic issues of the day written for a generally informed readership.
2013, No. 13
The Great Chinese Housing Boom
Significant store-of-value demand for housing suggests a bubble that could burst, especially when both the household income growth rate and the savings rate start to decline and capital controls in China start to relax.
2013, No. 12
Winners and Losers in the Great Recession
For a significant number of industries - representing roughly a quarter of the U.S. economy - the most recent recession has been business as usual when judged by pre-recession trends. For a slightly larger group of industries, mostly related to construction, manufacturing, and trade, the contractions have been severe, reinforcing a preexisting process of steady relative decline.
2013, No. 8
Would It Help To Eliminate Interest on Reserves?
Although we can’t be certain of the size of the effect, the ECB’s recent experience suggests that eliminating interest paid on reserves held with the Federal Reserve would not substantially increase bank lending and money growth.
2013, No. 5
Is the Fed Monetizing Government Debt?
Under this latter scenario, the Fed is not monetizing government debt —
it is simply managing the supply of the monetary base in accordance with the goals set by its dual mandate.
2013, No. 4
Why Is Output Growth So Slow?
The excess supply of commercial and residential real estate might explain why the historically low nominal and real interest rates have had relatively little effect on stimulating investment.
2013, No. 2
Rent or Buy?
The residential real estate market showed additional
signs of improvement in 2012, though the recovery
has been quite different for single-family compared
with multifamily markets.