Low sex ratios are often equated with unfavorable marriage prospects for women, but in France after World War 1, the marriage probability of single females rose 50%, despite a massive drop in the male/female ratio.
The rise of China is no doubt the most important event in world economic history
since the Industrial Revolution. The institutional theory of development based on a
dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions cannot explain China’s
In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP,
while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a
far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit.
Rehypothecation refers to the practice of re-using (selling or pledging
as collateral) an asset that has already been pledged as collateral for a
loan. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium monetary model
where an “asset shortage” motivates the rehypothecation of assets.
We use cross-country data and instrumental variables widely used in the
literature to show that (i) institutions (such as property rights and the rule of law) do
not explain industrialization and (ii) agrarian countries and industrial countries have
entirely different determinants for income levels.
This study proposes and quantitatively assesses a terms-of-trade penalty for defaulting: defaulters must exchange more of their own goods for imports, which causes an adjustment to the equilibrium exchange rate.
Consider the following facts. In 1950, the richest countries attained an average of 8 years
of schooling whereas the poorest countries 1.3 years, a large 6-fold difference. By 2005, the
difference in schooling declined to 2-fold because schooling increased faster in poor than in
In this paper we compare the welfare effects of unemployment insurance (UI) with an universal
basic income (UBI) system in an economy with idiosyncratic shocks to employment. Both policies
provide a safety net in the face of idiosyncratic shocks.
Metro Business Cycles by Maria A. Arias, Charles S. Gascon, and David E. Rapach
Working Paper 2014-046B posted November 2014, updated February 2015
We construct monthly economic-activity indices for 51 U.S. metropolitan statistical
areas beginning in 1990. Each index is based on a dynamic factor model for 14 variables
measuring various aspects of economic activity in a metro area.
Countries that trade more with each other tend to have more correlated business cycles. Yet,
traditional international business cycle models predict a much weaker link between trade and
business cycle comovement.
Rising costs of and returns to college have led to sizeable increases in the demand for
student loans in many countries. In the U.S., student loan default rates have also risen
for recent cohorts as labor market uncertainty and debt levels have increased.
Latin America has had striking changes in economic performance over time. Following the
recession and debt crises of the early 1980’s, consumption declined for about ten years and consumption per-capita in the year 2004 was roughly the same as it was in 1980.
It is a robust finding that technical trading rules applied to foreign exchange markets
have earned substantial excess returns over long periods of time. However, the approach to
risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory, and has tended to focus on the CAPM.
This paper explores the role played by structural transformation and the resulting relocation of workers from rural to urban areas in the recent housing boom in China. This development process has fostered an ongoing increase in urban housing demand, which, combined with a relatively inelastic supply due to land and entry restrictions, has raised housing and land prices.