We estimate a DSGE model with (S,s) inventory policies. We find that (i) taking
inventories into account can significantly improve the empirical fit of DSGE models
in matching the standard business-cycle moments (in addition to explaining inventory
fluctuations); (ii) (S,s) inventory policies can significantly amplify aggregate output
fluctuations, in contrast to the findings of the recent general-equilibrium inventory
literature; and (iii) aggregate demand shocks become more important than technology
shocks in explaining the business cycle once inventories are incorporated into the
We review the responses of the Federal Reserve to financial crises over the past 100 years. The authors of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913 created an institution that they hoped would prevent banking panics from occurring.
This paper considers the impact of leisure preference and leisure externalities on growth and labor supply in a Lucas  type model, as in Gómez , with a separable non‐homothetic utility and the assumption that physical and human capital are both necessary inputs in both the goods and the education sectors.
We formulate the central bank’s problem of selecting an optimal long-run inflation
rate as the choice of a distorting tax by a planner who wishes to maximize discounted
stationary utility for a heterogeneous population of infinitely-lived households in an
economy with constant aggregate income and public information.
The two channels of default on unsecured consumer debt are (i) bankruptcy, which
legally grants partial or complete removal of unsecured debt under certain circumstances,
and (ii) delinquency, which is informal default via nonpayment.
China’s over 25% aggregate household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast-rising housing prices in China. However, cross-sectional data do not show a significant relationship between housing prices and household saving rates.
This paper develops an analytically tractable Bewley model of money featuring capital and
financial intermediation. It is shown that when money is a vital form of liquidity to meet
uncertain consumption needs, the welfare costs of inflation can be extremely large.
In February 2005 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noticed that the 10-year Treasury yields failed to increase despite a 150-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate as a “conundrum.” This paper shows that the connection between the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate was severed in the late 1980s, well in advance of Greenspan’s observation.
This article uses a DSGE framework to evaluate the role of monetary policy
in determining the likelihood of encountering the zero lower bound. We find
that the probability of experiencing episodes of being at zero lower bound
depends almost exclusively on the monetary policy rule.
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, a new policy paradigm has emerged
in which old-fashioned policies such as capital controls and other government distor-
tions have become part of the standard policy toolkit (the so-called macro-prudential
After the collapse of housing markets during the Great Depression, the U.S.
government played a large role in shaping the future of housing finance and policy.
Soon thereafter, housing markets witnessed the largest boom in recent history.
We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to address two questions about
U.S. monetary policy: 1) Can monetary policy elevate output when it is below potential? and 2) Is
the zero lower bound a trap?
Through a purely positive lens, we study and document the growing trend of mortgagors who skip mortgage payments as an extra source of "informal" unemployment insurance during the 2007 recession and the subsequent recovery.
Financial capital and fixed capital tend to flow in opposite directions between poor and
rich countries. Why? What are the implications of such two-way capital flows for global trade
imbalances and welfare in the long run? This paper introduces frictions into a standard two-
country neoclassical growth model to explain the pattern of two-way capital flows between
emerging economies (such as China) and the developed world (such as the United States).
The Federal Open Market Committee has recently attempted to stimulate economic growth using unconventional methods. Prominent among these is quantitative easing (QE)—the purchase of a large quantity of longer-term debt on the assumption that QE reduces long-term yields through the portfolio balance channel.
Factor models have become useful tools for studying international business cycles. Block
factor models [e.g., Kose, Otrok, and Whiteman (2003)] can be especially useful as the zero
restrictions on the loadings of some factors may provide some economic interpretation of the
We adopt a statistical approach to identify the shocks that explain most of the
fluctuations of the slope of the term structure of interest rates. We find that one single
shock can explain the majority of all unpredictable movements in the slope over
a 10-year forecast horizon.