Why did the marriage probability of single females in France after World War 1 rise 50%
above its pre-war average, despite a 33% drop in the male/female singles ratio? We conjecture
that war-time disruption of the marriage market generated an abnormal abundance of
men with relatively high marriage propensities.
The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since
the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of
development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly
inadequate in explaining China’s rise.
In U.S. data 1981–2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit.
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium monetary model where a shortage of collateral and incomplete markets motivate the formation of credit relationships and the rehypothecation of assets. Rehypothecation improves resource allocation because it permits liquidity to flow where it is most needed.
The pursuit to uncover the driving forces behind cross-country income gaps has divided economists into two major camps: One emphasizes institutions, while the other stresses non-institutional forces such as geography.
This study proposes and quantitatively assesses a terms-of-trade penalty for defaulting: defaulters must exchange more of their own goods for imports, which causes an adjustment to the equilibrium exchange rate.
Consider the following facts. In 1950, the richest countries attained an average of 8 years
of schooling whereas the poorest countries 1.3 years, a large 6-fold difference. By 2005, the
difference in schooling declined to 2-fold because schooling increased faster in poor than in
In this paper we compare the welfare effects of unemployment insurance (UI) with an universal
basic income (UBI) system in an economy with idiosyncratic shocks to employment. Both policies
provide a safety net in the face of idiosyncratic shocks.
In reality matching is not purely random nor perfectly assortative. We propose a parsimonious way to model the choice of whom to meet that endogenizes the degree of randomness in matching, and show that this allows for better identification of preferences.
This study develops a novel model of endogenous sovereign debt maturity choice that rationalizes various stylized facts about debt maturity and the yield spread curve: first, sovereign debt duration and maturity generally exceed one year, and co-move positively with the business cycle.
This paper studies the effects of interregional spillovers from the government spending component of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the Recovery Act). Using
cross-county Census Journey to Work commuting data, we cluster U.S. counties into local labor markets, each of which we further partition into two subregions.
This paper explores the contribution of the structural transformation and urbanization process in the housing market in China. City migration flows combined with an
inelastic land supply, due to entry restrictions, has raised house prices.
This article develops time-series models to represent three alternative, potential monetary policy regimes as monetary policy returns to normal. The first regime is a return to the high and volatile inflation rate of the 1970s.
A model is constructed in which households and banks have incent-
ives to fake the quality of collateral. These incentive problems matter
when collateral is scarce in the aggregate when real interest rates are
Using retrospective data, we introduce evidence that occupational exposure significantly affects disability risk. Incorporating this into a general equilibrium model, social disability insurance (SDI) affects welfare through (i) the classic, risk-sharing channel and (ii) a new
channel of occupational reallocation.
This paper studies the effect of government stimulus spending on a novel aspect of the labor market: the differential impact of spending on the total wage bill versus employment. We analyze the 2009 Recovery Act via instrumental variables using a new instrument, the spending done by federal agencies that were not instructed to target funds towards harder hit regions.
China’s housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China’s housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition.
The 1950s are often pointed to as a decade in which the Federal Reserve operated a particularly successful monetary policy. The present paper examines the evolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy from the mid-1930s through the 1950s in an effort to understand better the apparent success of policy in the 1950s.