Skip to main content Skip to main content

Working Paper Archives

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critial comment.

Applied Microeconomics

Subprime Mortgage Design

This paper offers evidence on the design of subprime mortgages as bridge-financing products. We show that the viability of subprime mortgages was uniquely predicated on the appreciation of house prices over short-horizons.

Subprime Loan Quality

This paper is an exploration of subprime mortgages over the cohorts from 2000 through 2006, especially those prior to 2004. In particular, this study contrasts subprime originations during the “boom years” of 2004-2006 with originations during an “early period” of 2000-2002.

The Interplay between Preemptive and Defensive Counterterrorism Measures: A Two-Stage Game

A two-stage game depiction of counterterrorism is presented, where the emphasis is on the interaction between the preemptive and defensive measures taken by two targeted countries facing a common threat.

City Business Cycles and Crime

We explore the influence of city-level business cycle fluctuations on crime in 20 large cities in the United States. Our monthly time-series analysis considers seven crimes over an approximately 20-year period: murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft.

Institutions and Government Growth: A Comparison of the 1890s and the 1930s

Statistics on the size and growth of the U.S. federal government, along with the rhetoric of President Franklin Roosevelt, seem to indicate that the Great Depression was the event that started the dramatic growth in government spending and intervention in the private sector that has continued to the present day.

Local Price Variation and Labor Supply Behavior

In standard economic theory, labor supply decisions depend on the complete set of prices: the wage and the prices of relevant consumption goods. Nonetheless, most of theoretical and empirical work ignores prices other than wages when studying labor supply. The question we address in this paper is whether the common practice of ignoring local price variation in labor supply studies is as innocuous as has generally been assumed.

The Dynamic Interaction of Trading Flows, Macroeconomic Announcements and the CAD/USD Exchange Rate: Evidence from Disaggregated Data

We explore the relationship between disaggregated trading flows, the Canada/U.S. dollar (CAD/USD) market and U.S. macroeconomic announcements with a novel data set of unprecedented breadth and length. <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/cneely/Data_Appendix_The_Dynamic_Interaction.pdf">Data Appendix</a>.

Urban Crime and Labor Mobility

We present a model of crime where two municipalities exist within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Consistent with the literature, local law enforcement has a crime reduction effect and a crime diversion effect.

Human Capital Externalities and Adult Mortality in the U.S.

Human capital is now widely recognized to confer numerous benefits, including higher incomes, lower incidence of unemployment, and better health, to those who invest in it.

Why Do So Few Women Work in New York (And So Many in Minneapolis)? Labor Supply of Married Women across U.S. Cities

This paper documents a little-noticed feature of U.S. labor markets -- very large variation in the labor supply of married women across cities.

Inter-temporal Differences in the Income Elasticity of Demand for Lottery Tickets

We estimate annual income elasticities of demand for lottery tickets using county-level panel data for three states and find that the income elasticity of demand (and thus the tax burden) for lottery tickets has changed over time.

Earnings Functions When Wages and Prices Vary by Location

Economists generally assume, implicitly, that “the return to schooling" is invariant across local labor markets. We demonstrate that this outcome pertains if and only if preferences are homothetic--a special case that seems unlikely.

Government Growth and Private Contributions to Charity

We exploit the time-series properties of charitable giving to provide additional insights into the relationship between charitable contributions and government spending.

Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules

We analyze the effects of social learning in a widely-studied monetary policy context.

Strategic Online-Banking Adoption

In this paper we study the determinants of banks' decision to adopt a transactional web-site for their customers.

Trends in the Distributions of Income and Human Capital within Metropolitan Areas: 1980-2000

Human capital tends to have significant external effects within local markets, increasing the average income of individuals within the same metropolitan area.

Red Ink in the Rearview Mirror: Local Fiscal Conditions and the Issuance of Traffic Tickets

Municipalities have revenue motives for enforcing traffic laws in addition to public safety motives because many traffic offenses are punished via fines and the issuing municipality often retains the revenue.

Robust Non-parametric Quantile Estimation of Efficiency and Productivity Change in U.S. Commercial Banking, 1985–2004

This paper describes a non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic quantile estimator that unlike traditional non-parametric frontier estimators is both robust to data outliers and has a root-n convergence rate.

Neighborhood Income Inequality

This paper offers a descriptive empirical analysis of the geographic pattern of income inequality within a sample of 359 US metropolitan areas between 1980 and 2000.

Urban Decentralization and Income Inequality: Is Sprawl Associated with Rising Income Segregation Across Neighborhoods?

Existing research has found an inverse relationship between urban density and the degree of income inequality within metropolitan areas, suggesting that, as cities spread out, they become increasingly segregated by income.

The Duration of Foreclosures in the Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model with Mixing

This paper examines what happens to mortgages in the subprime mortgage market once foreclosure proceeding are initiated. A multinominial logit model that allows for the interdependence of the possible outcomes or risks (cure, partial cure, paid off, and real estate owned) through the correlation of associated unobserved heterogeneities is estimated.

The Determinants of Aid in the Post-Cold War Era

This paper estimates the responsiveness of aid to recipient countries’ economic and physical needs, civil/political rights, and government effectiveness.

War and Pestilence as Labor Market Shocks: U.S. Manufacturing Wage Growth 1914-1919

This paper explores the effect of mortalities from the 1918 influenza pandemic and World War I on wage growth in the manufacturing sectors of U.S. states and cities from 1914 to 1919.

Why People Choose Negative Expected Return Assets - An Empirical Examination of a Utility Theoretic Explanation

Using a theoretical extension of the Friedman and Savage (1948) utility function developed in Bhattacharyya (2003), we predict that for financial assets with negative expected returns, expected return will be a declining and convex function of skewness. Using a sample of U.S. state lottery games, we find that our theoretical conclusions are supported by the data.

The Transition to Electronic Communications Networks in the Secondary Treasury Market

This article reviews the history of the recent shift to electronic trading in equity, foreign exchange, and fixed-income markets.

The Impact of Local Predatory Lending Laws on the Flow of Subprime Credit

Local authorities in North Carolina, and subsequently in at least 23 other states, have enacted laws intending to reduce predatory and abusive lending. While there is substantial variation in the laws, they typically extend the coverage of the Federal Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA) by including home purchase and open end mortgage credit, by lowering annual percentage rate (APR) and fees and points triggers, and by prohibiting or restricting the use of balloon payments and prepayment penalties.

Evaluating State Tax Revenue Variability: A Portfolio Approach

State revenue variability is evaluated using a volatility model rooted in portfolio theory. The model evaluates how closely a state's revenue portfolio is constructed to minimize variability in total state tax revenue. The model complements parametric methods of revenue variability.

Information and Drug Prices: Evidence from the Medicare Discount Drug Card Program

In early 2004, the U.S. Government initiated the Medicare Discount Drug Card Program (MDDCP), which created a market for drug cards that allowed elderly and handicapped subscribers to obtain discounts on their prescription drug purchases.

Human Capital Growth in a Cross Section of US Metropolitan Areas

Human capital is typically viewed as generating a number of desirable outcomes, including economic growth. Yet, in spite of its importance, few empirical studies have explored why some economies accumulate more human capital than others. This paper attempts to do so using a sample of more than 200 metropolitan areas in the United States over the years 1980, 1990, and 2000.

Creating a Policy Environment for Entrepreneurs

This paper demonstrates that levels of entrepreneurship can be greatly affected by the general policy environment. Using a state-level panel, we estimate the effects of several policy variables on rates of entrepreneurship and find that bankruptcy exemptions, corporate tax rates, and the level of the minimum wage all affect a state's rate of entrepreneurship.


Next 30 Working Papers

Archives

Year

Category

Author

JEL Code


Tools

Related Links


Subscribe to our newsletter


Follow us

Twitter logo Google Plus logo Facebook logo YouTube logo LinkedIn logo
Back to Top